Royal Ascot Day 4 Ante-Post Preview (23/06/23)

The fourth day of the Royal Ascot horse racing action will be on us before we know it. As part of our ante-post preview series, I’ll take a look at the early betting to see which horses are standing out from the crowd in a selection of markets for this second day of racing at the iconic festival. Read on to see my free horse racing tips for these races.

15:05 KING EDWARD VII STAKES – 1 MILE 4 FURLONGS (GROUP 2)

Established in 1834, the King Edward VII Stakes is a Group 2 flat race run at Royal Ascot which is open to three-year-old colts and geldings. The race is run over just shy of one-mile-and four furlongs where previous Group 1 winners receive a 3lb penalty.

There are multiple leading trainers in the King Edward VII Stakes over the last 20 renewals with all of Aidan O’Brien, John Gosden, Sir Michael Stoute and Mark Johnston having all won the race three times. A P O’Brien winners have been with Five Dynasties (2004), Japan (2019) and Changingoftheguard (2022). John Gosden winners have been with Plea Bargain (2005), Nathaniel (2011) and Eagle Top (2014). Sir Michael Stoute winners have been with Papal Bull (2006), Hillstar (2013) and Across The Stars (2016). Mark Johnston winners have been with Boscobel (2007), Monterosso (2010) and Permian (2017).

The leading jockey in the King Edward VII Stakes over the last 20 renewals is William Buick who has won the race four times with those four winners coming from Nathaniel (2011), Eagle Top (2014), Permian (2017) and Old Persian (2018). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the King Edward VII Stakes are Ryan Moore (3 wins), Frankie Dettori (3 wins), Jamie Spencer (2 wins) and Martin Dwyer (2 wins).

Many of the horses that locked horns in the Epsom betting event which is the Derby last time look set to renew rivalry as Auguste Rodin, Military Order, Arrest and King Of Steel are all still engaged at this point and of those that ran it was the latter who ran the race of his career to date on what was his first start for Roger Varian.

Auguste Rodin grafted out his Derby win with grit and determination wearing down the lesser experienced rival King Of Steel. Should he come to run here he will be a massive player as we know that his trainer has always thought the world of him and was rather dismayed at how flat he performed in the 1000 Guineas.

King Of Steel ran the race of his career on what was his first-ever run for Roger Varian. Only picked off by Auguste Rodin in the closing stages of the Derby, he battled hard for jockey Kevin Stott. He will have gained plenty of experience and can likely only benefit from it.

Charlie Appleby’s yard is in and out of form at the moment, but with a run now behind him, Military Order should go closer here too.

1PT E/W King Of Steel @ 6/1 with Bet365 bonus code

16:20 COMMONWEALTH CUP – 6 FURLONGS (GROUP 1)

The Commonwealth Cup is a Group 1 flat horse race in Great Britain open to colts and fillies aged three years. It is run at Ascot over a distance of 6 furlongs.

The Commonwealth Cup was introduced in 2015 as part of changes to the programme of sprint horse races in Europe. The Diamond Jubilee Stakes, run over the same course and distance at the same meeting, was closed to three-year-olds at the same time. The new race was subsequently named the Commonwealth Cup and the Buckingham Palace Stakes was removed from the Royal Ascot meeting to make room for the new race.

The race was initially open to all three-year-old horses, including geldings, to help the race become established. It was the only Group 1 flat race in Great Britain exclusively for three-year-olds that allowed geldings to compete and the first age-restricted Group 1 race which was open to geldings in Europe. Geldings were excluded after the 2019 running

The leading jockey in the Commonwealth Cup betting over the last 8 renewals is Frankie Dettori, who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from Advertise (2019) and Campanelle (2021).

Little Big Bear ran a much better race in the Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock last month. Partnered by Frankie Dettori, the pair made short work of rivals including Bradsell and Shouldvebeenaring. Likely to be even stronger here, he will need to improve again, as the opposition looks to be of a higher calibre.

Sakheer was an exciting juvenile accumulating a win in the Dubai Duty Free Stakes at Newbury races. He made his seasonal reappearance in the 2000 Guineas, where he ran pretty much as the market suggested he would. He will build on that performance for sure and Roger Varian will make sure he is fully primed.

Shaquille has been going from strength to strength for Julie Camacho. Only one defeat in five races explains his inclusion here. Whilst this represents a big step up in class, he has talent in abundance and this year’s renewal may not be the most vintage, it would push his trainer into what would be her biggest career success.

Meditate has flattered to deceive twice again this season and she too needs to raise her game.

1PT WIN Little Big Bear @ 7/4 with Bet365

17:00 CORONATION STAKES – 1 MILE (GROUP 1)

Established in 1840, the race is open to three-year-old fillies only and is run over just shy of a mile (7f 213yds). Good form in either the English 1,000 Guineas or Irish 1,000 Guineas as well as the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches in France could be a pointer in the race.

When you consider we have seen 14 winners of this race in the last 23 years come on from winning the English or Irish 1000 Guineas that is something that needs to be monitored. Watch out for the French raiders, three of the last six renewals have gone the way of the French including 2019 when Watch Me won for Francis-Henri Graffard.

There are multiple leading trainers in the Coronation Stakes over the last 20 renewals with all of Aidan O’Brien, John Gosden, Jean-Claude Rouget and Jessie Harrington having all won the race two times. Aidan O’Brien winners have been with Lillie Langtry (2010) and Winter (2017). John Gosden winners have been with Nannina (2006) and Fallen For You (2012). Jean-Claude Rouget winners have been Ervedya (2015) and Qemah (2016). Jessie Harrington’s winners have been Alpha Centauri (2018) and Alpine Star (2020).

There are two leading jockeys in the Coronation Stakes over the last 20 renewals with both Ryan Moore and Frankie Dettori who have both won the race two times. Ryan Moore winners have been with Rizeena (2014) and Winter (2017). Frankie Dettori winners have been with Alpine Star (2020) and Inspiral (2022).

This year’s renewal sees the two fillies that fought out the finish in the English 1000 Guineas once again cross swords. Mawj managed to get the first run on Tahiyra at Newmarket, but Dermot Weld will be itching to have another crack at the Godolphin filly.

Since finishing a very unlucky second in the English Guineas, Tahiyra went one place better on home soil in the Irish version next time out. Always travelling kindly for Chris Hayes, the paid started to assert inside the final furlong.

Mawj has been kept under wraps since her Newmarket win. She was the fitter of the pair as was race-fit from the Dubai Carnival. She is the apple of Saeed Bin Suroor’s eye and he too will be confident that his stable star can confirm the form with Tahiyra.

Of the outsiders, Jessie Harrington trains Sounds Of Heaven. The daughter of Kingman made her seasonal reappearance at York and took the step up in class well. With the yard’s good record in this particular event, she could be good each-way value at double-figure prices in the Coronation Stakes odds.

1PT E/W Sounds From Heaven @ 14/1 with Bet365

All odds are accurate at the time of writing.

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