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One of the key games in the Premier League relegation battle this weekend will take place in a 1:30pm BST kick-off on Sunday afternoon from the London Stadium when Europa Conference League finalists West Ham host relegation battlers Leeds. The home side went through the emotional ringer on Thursday night as they reached a first major European cup final since 1976 but will they have anything left in the tank here? Check out my Premier League betting tips for this important clash below.
Moyes Set to Rest History Boys?
West Ham will still be on cloud nine after their 1-0 away win against Dutch Eredivisie side AZ Alkmaar in midweek giving them a 3-1 aggregate win in their Europa Conference League Semi-Final. The physical and emotional fallout of that game, including the unsavoury scenes at the end of the game as AZ fans tried to intimidate players’ friends and family members in the stands, is being kept secretive by the Hammers. However, certain players are expected to be unable to start this game at 100% fitness.
David Moyes knows his team are realistically safe from relegation sat in 15th place and 6 points clear of the relegation zone with a superior goal difference. That said, he’ll be keen to keep the positive vibes going heading into their Europa Conference Final date with Fiorentina next month. West Ham are the 7/5 favourites to win that game so it would be naïve to suggest that Moyes isn’t fully focused on that fixture.
It’s league action here though. West Ham are not overwhelming favourites here at 6/4 with Betfair and it’s fair to say a home win isn’t a particularly sound bet. The Hammers have lost 4 of their last 5 league games. It is interesting that they have scored in each of their 12 home games across all competitions during the 2023 calendar year so far. This makes a both teams to score bet at 4/6 with William Hill look tempting.
Big Sam Needs a Big Win
Time is running out for Leeds in their battle to survive. Despite generally improved displays under Sam Allardyce, the club are still without a win in 7 league games. Probably a harsh statistic given their last two games have been a 2-2 draw at home to Newcastle and a narrow 2-1 loss away to Manchester City. Those performances have seen bookies reduce their odds of a win here to 7/4 with Betfred.
The Whites are down in 18th position heading into the final two league games of the season and it’s looking like it’s going to be at least 4 points to save them now. Tottenham at home await the Yorkshire club on the final day so anything other than a win here will offer a grim scenario for the fans. It’s probably demoralising reading to see that Leeds accumulated 23% of their points total so far this season in their opening three league games.
Leeds have also seen BTTS come in for each of their last 11 league games. The club have also seen six different scorers for their last 6 league goals scored. This makes it tricky to pick out an anytime scorer but if I was going to back one then it would be Patrick Bamford at 5/2 with William Hill as he looks to hit back after missing that crucial penalty against Newcastle last time out.
Head-to-Head Meetings
Well, where do we start with this one? It is a battle across both a club and manager spectrum here. Firstly, Leeds have lost 3 of their last 5 meetings with West Ham since returning to the top flight a few seasons ago. On the flip side, West Ham have only managed to pick up 2 wins in their last 16 home league games with Leeds.
Secondly, there’s some interesting managerial head-to-head stats flying around. Moyes has only lost 1 of his last 9 league meetings with Leeds but that did come in this fixture last season. Moyes has also inflicted 8 straight league defeats on Allardyce. It’s also worth noting that Allardyce is without a win in his last 8 Premier League matches played against West Ham.
West Ham vs Leeds Betting Tips
Ordinarily, I would be all over a West Ham win here. Especially given Allardyce’s awful record against Moyes and West Ham. There is that extenuating circumstance of the midweek European drama though and that factor trumps all other statistics in my opinion.
When you consider the physical and emotional impact of Thursday night on the West Ham players and combine it with the fact that Leeds have a lot more motivation to perform in this game then it begins to feel like Leeds could do this. We all know how toxic that London Stadium crowd can get when things don’t go their way as well. Leeds will almost certainly still concede though.
Leeds to Win @ 7/4 with Betfred
BTTS @ 4/6 with William Hill bonus code
All odds are accurate at the time of writing.
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