Manchester City vs Newcastle Betting Tips (19/08/23)

The Build-Up

The 2022/23 treble winners Manchester City began the defence of their Premier League title with a comfortable 3-0 hammering of newly-promoted Burnley. There were moments in the first-half especially when The Clarets posed problems with an intense pressing style but City, as they hunt an unprecedented fourth successive English title, managed to see off their Lancastrian rivals in fairly comprehensive fashion.

Erling Braut Haaland began with a brace, as he did last season when City won 2-0 at West Ham United, and the Norwegian international will be fancying himself to have another electric start to the season after reaching double figures by the end of August last year. Pep Guardiola’s side faces one of their tougher tests at the Etihad this season, though, taking on a member of last season’s top four who also started with an emphatic opening-day victory.

The Magpies annihilated an Aston Villa side tipped up by many as ‘dark horses’ last weekend with a 5-1 victory at St James’ Park. Sandro Tonali, following his move from Milan in the summer, opened the scoring on debut with Alexander Isak notching a brace as well as goals from Callum Wilson and another debutant, Harvey Barnes.

Newcastle’s rise from a legitimate relegation battle and even likely impending relegation just 18 months ago to a team that may well head to the Etihad knowing they could really make a statement for a possible title challenge by drawing, or even pinching all three points this weekend.

Betting Trends to Watch

Of the four teams to concede the fewest shots per game on average last season, two of them meet in this match. Manchester City allowed just 7.7 efforts on goal, whereas Newcastle managed to limit their opposition to just 10.2. That defensive solidity and general control in the game can be shown by the fact the two sides meeting in early March produced just two goals and 16 shots as City cruised to a 2-0 win at the Etihad Stadium.

The reverse fixture, a 3-3 draw in August, was a pretty remarkable statistical anomaly with The Magpies managing almost 5 more shots on the City goal than City tend to concede and City getting 21 shots off at Newcastle’s goal, despite that being over 10 more than the average for the season. This makes the total goals scored under 2.5 bet quite attractive at the price available.

Joelinton picked up the second most amount of bookings in the Premier League last season with 12, just behind Fulham’s Joao Palhinha. Given that Jack Grealish, who was the second most fouled player per game on average last season, could come into the starting eleven in place of the injured Kevin De Bruyne and play on the side that Joelinton will likely be asked to double up with Kieran Trippier, a Joelinton booking seems like good value.

The Form

Manchester City come into this on the back of defeating Sevilla in the UEFA Super Cup in Piraeus in midweek. They required a penalty shootout to do so meaning that their current record of matches in 90 minutes is a bit hit-and-miss. They have won just four games of their last 14 by more than one goal, showing that teams aren’t being blown away by them as they have been in the past.

Newcastle started the season by hammering Aston Villa by a 5-1 score so their current form, including pre-season friendlies, has them having suffered just 2 defeats in their last 21 matches. This makes the win bet look tempting and even if you’re not confident enough in that outcome then backing the BetVictor Premier League odds of a Newcastle draw no bet outcome at 21/10 or the Evens price on a Newcastle double chance is worth considering.

Head-to-Head Meetings

Since the first meeting between the two sides in October 1893, these two sides have faced each other 188 times. Manchester City have won 75 of those matches with Newcastle coming out on top on 72 occasions. However, that has seriously flipped in recent years with the last 34 matches between the two sides, since 2006, providing just two Leicester victories, five draws and 27 City wins. So, prior to 2006, that 75-72 record in favour of City was 48-70.

Manchester City vs Newcastle United Betting Tips

City’s start to the season can be read one or two ways: they have started slowly and that is ominous for the rest of the league, considering they have won their opening Premier League game by three goals to nil and also won a trophy. However, it could also be a sign they aren’t clicking into gear and any sort of dip in form will leave the door open for a side to take advantage, especially in the early stages of the campaign.

Given that Newcastle have started so well, the second option seems most likely, at least for this match. A low-scoring encounter is to be expected but a shock bet could well be in backing the Magpies. As for an individual tip, too, Joelinton’s booking, as mentioned earlier, seems an inevitability in a match like this one.

All odds are accurate at the time of writing.