The chaotic fight for the right to finish in the Champions League qualification places in the Premier League is entering its final days. Twists and turns are afoot with Newcastle vs Brighton in this 7:30pm BST kick-off on Thursday evening from St James’ Park. Here are my Premier League betting tips for the crucial clash without a single Jason Tindall meme in sight!
Howe Hoping for Champions League Boost
It’s getting nervy at the top end of the Premier League table and Newcastle know that they can ill-afford to slip up now if they want to eat at the top table of European football next season. Eddie Howe’s men are in 3rd place but just 1 point inside the top four heading into this game with Manchester United and Liverpool in hot pursuit. The Magpies are currently backed at 2/7 with Bet365 to finish in the top four but after failing to win their last 2 league games it feels like the pressure might be starting to tell.
The Toon Army have had an exceptional season so whatever your feelings are about their ownership you can’t help but give credit to the work that Howe and his players have done on the pitch. Home form has been critical to this campaign with the team losing just 2 of their 17 home league matches this season. So, it’s interesting to see that Newcastle are valued at 26/25 with Unibet to win here with Newcastle winning 4 of their last 5 home league games.
The standout player market comes in the shape of in-form striker Callum Wilson. The Newcastle frontman has been in a prolific mood recently having scored 7 goals in the club’s last 5 league games. In fact, he’s scored two goals in three of those games including scoring twice from the penalty spot in their last outing. You can find him at 6/4 with Betfair to score anytime and Newcastle are 4/1 with Bet365 to score from the penalty spot again in this one.
Seagulls Back to Winning Ways
One of the success stories in the top flight of English football this season has been Roberto De Zerbi’s fine work at Brighton. When the Seagulls saw manager Graham Potter leave for Chelsea there was deep concern that the club could freefall. On the contrary, former Sassuolo gaffer De Zerbi has taken the team to the next level with the club currently in 6th position and vying for a Europa League qualification spot. Hopes of qualifying for the Champions League are still possible but fanciful with SpreadEx offering 40/1 on that happening.
Brighton suffered a shock 5-1 loss to relegation-battling Everton last week but the team hit back in fine style in their next game by beating Premier League title challengers Arsenal by a 3-0 score at the Emirates Stadium. That win made it a third away win in 5 away league matches but also ensured the loss to the Toffees was a blip. The team’s odds of 5/2 with Betfair to win here are very teasing after that most recent away win.
If there’s one thing that Brighton haven’t had any trouble doing recently it’s scoring goals. In fact, the last time the team fired a blank in a league game was back on 18th February in a 1-0 home loss to Fulham. That was 13 league games ago. Their scoring record on the road is even more impressive. You need to go back to 14th October, 2022 to see the last time they failed to score on their travels and that was a 2-0 loss away to Brentford. Backing both teams to score at 8/13 with Unibet certainly looks like a low-risk selection.
Head-to-Head Meetings
It’s a travel distance of over 345 miles between these two clubs but you’d think that the home team would dominate this fixture. However, that’s not quite the case. No doubt, the away team probably resorts to air travel to reduce the impact of such a long journey these days.
Newcastle have only managed 1 win in the last 11 meetings across all competitions. Brighton have only lost 1 of their last 5 visits to St James’ Park but that was the most recent visit. It’s also intriguing to see that this fixture long rarely saw over 2.5 goals scored but that outcome has now occurred in 4 of the previous 5 encounters.
Newcastle vs Brighton Betting Tips
The Premier League is an exciting place. Just as teams look like they may achieve something spectacular they fall at the final hurdle. Or just as a team looks written off they can claw back the victory. At face value, Newcastle look shaky over the past two league games and Brighton look back to their best after that stunning win last time out. Football is a funny old game though.
I do feel that Newcastle will qualify for the Champions League this season at the expense of either Manchester United or Liverpool. Nerves have started jangling recently but I think they’ll get the win here. Brighton have a packed end to the season now with 4 league matches still to play. They have their own pressure with Europa League qualification in their minds. It’ll be close and I was tempted to back the draw but I’m going to a Wilson-inspired Newcastle win here.
Newcastle to Win @ Evens with Virgin Bet Bonus Code
Anytime Scorer: Callum Wilson @ 6/4 with Betfair bonus code
All odds are accurate at the time of writing.
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