Newcastle vs Aston Villa Betting Tips (12/08/23)

The Build-Up

The October 2021 takeover of Newcastle United by the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund has been criticised off-the-pitch and is one of the more controversial ownerships in world football but, on the field, The Magpies have benefitted enormously from obviously large sums of money spent but the way in which it has been spent is impressive. There was not a rush to spend big on lots of players but a more considered and, simply, calmer approach has paid off.

Eddie Howe’s side launched themselves from relegation certainties in January 2022 to a top-four finish in May 2023. Newcastle’s squad will have to get bigger with UEFA Champions League football in the Autumn but, without that distraction for now, they head into the 2023/24 campaign with, perhaps for the first time this century, seriously high expectations of, once again, competing at the very top end of the Premier League table.

In October 2022, Steven Gerrard was sacked as manager of Aston Villa with the Midlanders sitting down in the relegation battle. He was replaced by the often underrated Unai Emery and the former PSG and Arsenal boss led The Villains to a seventh-place finish by the end of the season with just two clubs, Manchester City and Arsenal, collecting more points than Villa between his appointment and the end of the season.

The visitors, like Newcastle, have European football to contend with but they also have to qualify via the playoff round against either Luzern or Hibernian towards the end of this month so the need for a bigger squad and probable rotation is higher. On the opening day, though, they will go to St James’ Park after a strong summer transfer window in which Youri Tielemans, Pau Torres and Moussa Diaby have arrived. It could be argued that if those three players had signed for pretty much any team in the league, they would be viewed as impressive additions.

Betting Trends to Watch

A specific trend to potentially seek value in would be a lack of shots in general throughout the match. Tactically both of these sides have similar characteristics in terms of their pragmatism. There are sophisticated moves and patterns of play that both implement to score but it could be argued both prefer a more reactive approach to counteract their opposition.

Combined with that would be the statistic that both of these were in the top six for fewest shits conceded per game last season with Newcastle United allowing just 10.2 efforts on their goal, whilst Unai Emery’s Aston Villa defence let just 11.3 on average, despite their poor start to the season under the management of Steven Gerrard.

The Form

These two sides have both been involved in the Premier League summer series pre-season tour in the United States over the summer. The two sides shared a thrilling 3-3 draw which, for the neutral, is hopefully a sign of what is to come in this match at St James’ Park on Saturday evening.

The Magpies began their pre-season with back-to-back victories against Gateshead and Rangers before that aforementioned sharing of the spoils with Villa. Since then, Eddie Howe’s side have remained unbeaten with a draw against Chelsea before followed by victories against Brighton, Fiorentina and Villarreal. Unai Emery’s men have also enjoyed some impressive results with a victory over Fulham followed by another 3-3 draw, this time with Brentford, and then wins against Lazio and Valencia. It is actually a bit spooky how similar the two teams’ preparation for the campaign has been.

Head-to-Head Meetings

These two historic and storied clubs have faced each other a whopping 171 times across all competitions since their first-ever meeting in February 1895. Aston Villa have won 59 of those meetings with Newcastle taking 73. The fairly even nature of the contest is reflected in the last decade or so, too.

Since August 2014 when the two sides shared an opening day goalless draw, there have been six draws with Villa winning four matches and Newcastle managing four wins of their own. The even nature of these two sides, both in terms of history against each other, summer spending, pre-season results and pre-season expectation is quite remarkable.

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Betting Tips

The trend in pre-season has been quite high-scoring and entertaining encounters. Both the managers have gained a reputation for being able to control the opposition, though, whether that be through fair or foul tactical means. Despite that, on opening day, with so much anticipated in both sets of supporters, this is expected to be an easy-on-the-eye clash for the neutral and quite an entertaining encounter in which both teams scoring is likely.

What is also quite likely is for it to be a very even contest and, as always, the football tips value will be found in backing the draw. You look across both sides and they appear to be on an upward trajectory with their respective managers and squad strength. It’s certainly set to be a fascinating game on Saturday evening.

All odds are accurate at the time of writing.