Everton vs Bournemouth Tips, Trends, & Analysis (28/05/23) – Toffees’ fate in own hands on tense final day

The final weekend of the Premier League is here and the real drama can be found at the bottom end of the table. Everton, Leeds, and Leicester will be looking to avoid relegation to the Championship but with two spots in the drop zone still left to be decided only one of those three teams can survive.

Here are my free Premier League tips for this epic game between Everton and Bournemouth in a 4:30pm BST kick-off from Goodison Park on Sunday afternoon.

Dyche Aiming to Avoid a Sticky Situation

If there is one key factor ahead of this nervous top-flight game, it’s the fact that Everton are the only side in this tense final day of action who have their fate in their own hands. Sean Dyche has done a decent job at giving the Toffees a fighting chance of staying up after coming in as manager back in January. Still, the club face a real risk that they could be relegated out of the top division for the first time since 1954. The bookies don’t think it’ll happen with William Hill offering Everton at 3/1 to be relegated.

It’s a clear-cut situation for Everton. Win and they are safe. SpreadEx are pricing that outcome at 1/2. If Everton are held to a draw then it will let Leicester back in with a chance. Unibet has a draw listed at 15/4. It’s interesting because Dyche enjoyed some solid home form when he first came in winning his first 2 home league games in charge of the club and losing just 1 of his first 5 home league matches. Unfortunately, it’s gone a bit awry since then with the club losing their last 3 games played at Goodison Park.

The team is generally in sound form though with just 1 loss from their last four league games. It’s this home form that has you wondering if the toxic atmosphere produced by the home fans towards the owners of the club is impacting the nerves of the players. They have conceded at least 3 goals in each of their last 3 home league games. Bet365 is offering 12/1 on the away team scoring over 2.5 goals here.

Bournemouth on the Beach?

For a long time, it was looking like Bournemouth were destined for a swift return to the second tier of English football. Scott Parker led the team to an awful start to their Premier League return with 1 win and 3 defeats in their opening 4 league games. The inexperienced Gary O’Neil replaced him and it was a decision that didn’t exactly sit well with the fans. Things looked grim back at the start of the February with O’Neil’s men enduring a run of 1 win in 13 league games that left the club looking doomed.

Fast forward to the final day of the season and the Cherries are up in 15th place and that’s even after a spell of 3 league defeats in a row. It’s a testament to the turnaround that O’Neil has implemented since the middle of February with the club 7 wins from their last 15 league matches. Away form has been key to that improved set of results with the club winning 3 of their previous 4 away league games. Given that form on their travels their price to win here of 6/1 with Betfair is very tempting. Perhaps the option of a double chance bet of 7/4 with William Hill is preferable.

One issue is nagging though and it’s the fact that Bournemouth have seemingly checked out since realistically sealing their spot in the Premier League for next season. Three defeats in a row and just 1 goal scored during that time suggests they could well already be mentally on their holidays. The failure to score in the last two league games does make the 13/8 price with BetVictor on Everton to win to nil an intriguing proposition.

Head-to-Head Meetings

The playing history between these two clubs is relatively small. This is mainly due to them competing at opposite ends of the football league pyramid for such a long time. Everton have won 8 of their 16 meetings with Bournemouth picking up 6 victories with two draws being contested.

Here is the real game-changing statistic though. Bournemouth have won each of the last four meetings between the two sides and have scored at least 3 goals in each of those encounters. Nod back to the away goals odds there. Everton have only managed 1 win in the last 7 meetings. Not great reading given what’s at stake here.

Everton vs Bournemouth Betting Tips

Who would be a football fan, hey? Everton face the biggest game in years and one of the most important matches in their history. Relegation to the Championship with the new stadium on the way would be a disaster of epic proportions and a swift return is far from guaranteed. Just ask the likes of Oldham, Bradford, and Bolton.

A few stats concern me here. Everton’s recent downturn in home form, the supporters getting restless, striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin set to miss out through injury, and then there’s Bournemouth’s head-to-head advantage which will undoubtedly provide a psychological boost.

I’m going to make a big call here and back Bournemouth with the double chance and I’ll also go away goals scored over 2.5. The south coast side may well have nothing to play for but that could play into their hands. An early goal for Leicester or Leeds in the other games and the home fans will get edgy. That will feed through to the players. I still think Everton will likely stay up because I’m not convinced Leicester or Leeds will win but I’m not convinced the Merseysiders will win here.

Bournemouth Double Chance @ 7/4 with William Hill

Total Away Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 12/1 with Bet365 bonus code

All odds are accurate at the time of writing.

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