It’s likely to be a party atmosphere at the Amex Stadium on Wednesday night when Brighton host Manchester City in an 8pm BST kick-off. The home side have confirmed European football next season for the first time in the club’s history and the away team will be given a guard of honour after being crowned Premier League champions on the weekend. Here are my free football tips for this match.
De Zerbi Delivers the Zion of Europe
Earlier this season, Brighton looked to be in a state of disarray as former gaffer Graham Potter departed for a new position with Chelsea and many pundits anticipated the club to fall off a cliff. The Seagulls boldly decided to appoint little-known Italian manager Roberto De Zerbi off the back of his work with Shakhtar Donetsk and Sassuolo. The team haven’t looked back since then with De Zerbi guiding the club to at least a 6th place finished and the utopian land of European football next season.
Brighton have won 4 of their last 6 top flight league games to push them over the line to achieve this piece of remarkable history but they have suffered two heavy defeats during that spell including a bizarre 5-1 loss at home to Everton and a heavy 4-1 loss away to Newcastle. The club are listed at 3/1 with BetVictor to win this game but given City might be in celebratory mode and rotate their squad then a double chance at 21/20 with Unibet is tempting. Especially considering Brighton have won 3 of their last 4 home league games and only lost 1 of their previous 7 home matches in the league.
18-year-old Irish striker Evan Ferguson is proving himself to be a really exciting talent in front of goal. The youngster bagged a brace in the 3-1 home win over Southampton on the weekend and he’s 12/5 with Bet365 to score anytime. Deniz Undav is 7/2 with Betfair to score at any time and he has scored 4 goals in his last 6 league appearances (5 goals if you include the own goal versus Newcastle! Sorry, Deniz!).
Pep Keen to Play Down Party
Manchester City have the potential to create history this season. Pep Guardiola’s men are still in with a chance of winning a treble with the club set to play Manchester United in the FA Cup Final and Inter Milan in the Champions League Final. Two winnable games and with the Premier League title already sealed it would be easy for the players to get complacent.
Pep is understandably keen to avoid this. He took the decision to field a number of fringe players in the 1-0 win over Chelsea such as Stefan Ortega, Kalvin Phillips, Sergio Gomez, Rico Lewis, Julian Alvarez, and Cole Palmer. It’s a masterstroke not only resting key players but keeping motivation levels high for these final few games. It was actually Alvarez who bagged the winner against Chelsea on the weekend and he’s priced at 17/10 with Unibet to score anytime. The fact he scored after just 12 minutes also makes him a decent shout for first scorer here at 11/2 with Paddy Power.
City are 5/6 with BetUK to win this game and it’s easy to see why given they have won their last 12 league games in a row and haven’t suffered a loss in league action since a 1-0 loss away to Tottenham back on 5th February. The Citizens have also kept three clean sheets in their last 4 league outings so backing them to win to nil at 16/5 with Betfair is very appealing. However, I am wary that Guardiola could be mixing up that defensive line again here which always risks clean sheets.
Head-to-Head Meetings
If you’re a Brighton fan then you might want to look away for this head-to-head section. Manchester City have won 11 of the last 12 meetings in all competitions including winning the most recent three league encounters.
The south coast side did inflict a 3-2 result on their opponents here at this venue back in May 2021 but the last time these two teams played each other at this stadium it ended up with City storming to a 4-1 win.
Brighton vs Manchester City Betting Tips
End-of-season matches like this are always tough to call when both teams have little to play for except pride. Brighton and Manchester City will be celebrating their own achievements in the league this season but they are both a professional and hardworking set of players. So whomever De Zerbi and Guardiola start in their line-ups, we can be sure to see a compelling game.
It seems that there is some value in a City win in its own right but I’m tempted to go even further and back a City win with both teams to score. BTTS has come through in 3 of the last 4 meetings and I’m fully expecting some changes to the City back-line with Brighton much more likely to pose an attacking threat than Chelsea did on the weekend. I think backing Alvarez as an anytime scorer also offers sound value.
Manchester City to Win & BTTS @ 11/5 with Betfair bonus code
Anytime Scorer: Julian Alvarez @ 17/10 with Unibet
All odds are accurate at the time of writing.
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