Inter Milan vs AC Milan Tips, Trends, & Analysis (16/05/23) – Inzaghi’s men stand on the brink of history

The second legs of the 2022/23 Champions League Semi-Finals are up this week and we’ve got a pulsating tie coming up from the San Siro for the second time in a week. Two historic rivals go head-to-head in an 8pm BST kick-off on Tuesday night when the blue and black side of Milan look to hold on to their 2-0 lead over the red and black neighbours. Here are my Champions League tips ahead of the crunch clash.

One Foot Inter the Final?

It’s probably fair to say that not many people saw Inter Milan’s dominant 2-0 win coming in the first leg. It certainly felt like the team exceeded expectations with the goals from Edin Dzeko and Henrikh Mkhitaryan and the Nerazzurri certainly could’ve won by a bigger margin. If away goals counted then it would be a tie that was heavily in Inter’s favour but the lack of away goals now means that AC Milan are still very much in this tie.

Simone Inzaghi’s team are 11/10 with Unibet to win this second leg and they are priced at 9/1 with Sporting Index to win the second leg by the same 2-0 score-line by which they won the first leg. The team have moved up to 3rd in Serie A after a 4-2 win at home to Sassuolo on the weekend so it doesn’t appear that their Champions League commitments are hindering their domestic ambitions.

It’s worth noting that Romelu Lukaku grabbed a brace on the weekend and Lautaro Martinez also scored as Inzaghi gave some of his more high-value players some game time to prove themselves. You’d imagine that the former Lazio manager will stick with what worked from the first leg but Lukaku is surely worth backing to score after that confidence boost of two goals. He’s listed at 5/2 with Bet365 to score anytime.

Pioli Hoping for a Miracle

There is no denying that AC Milan are in a deep hole right now. As if the first leg defeat at home against Inter Milan last week wasn’t demoralising enough, the club’s hopes of qualifying for next season’s Champions League took a massive hit on the weekend after a shock 2-0 loss away to relegation-battling Spezia. That loss leaves Stefano Pioli’s men down in 5th place in Serie A and 4 points off the pace of the top four.

I Rossoneri are valued at 14/5 with Boylesports to win this game but they are available at even longer odds of 13/1 with Sporting Index to qualify for the Final. It’s all looking quite grim for the away side in this game. It was clear how much the team missed the attacking prowess of Rafael Leao in the first leg. The Brazilian is expected to return for this second leg and he’s available at 7/2 with Paddy Power to score any time.

All of the pressure is on AC Milan to claw this game back and that means they must absolutely score the first goal in this second game. The odds on that happening are 8/5 with Bet365 but with the team failing to even score in their last two matches it’s a hard sell. It’s also just 1 win from their last 8 away matches in all competitions. It just depends how away from home they feel in a San Siro filled with Inter fans.

Head-to-Head Meetings

As mentioned in the first leg preview, there is a lot of history here but the first leg meeting is probably the most accurate historical statistic we need. It was Inter Milan dominance from the first minute and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see something similar here. That was still a first win in 5 Champions League meetings for Inter over AC Milan but is the tide turning? Interestingly, it was a 4th time in 5 encounters that both teams to score didn’t come in. I’m not so sure we’ll see that again here.

Inter Milan vs AC Milan Betting Tips

The majority of the hard work was done by Inter Milan in the first leg but there will be that nagging feeling in the back of Inzaghi’s mind about the plethora of chances his team missed. AC Milan have no choice but to go for it here and I wouldn’t be surprised if they make it nervy for the home side.

Unfortunately, this is well-poised for Inter to pick holes in the AC back-line as the away team look to claw this game back. I can certainly see both teams scoring as AC Milan throw everything at Inter but it feels set up for Inter to slowly chip away and cause AC even more trouble.

Inter Milan to Win @ 11/10 with Unibet

BTTS @ 10/11 with Bet365

All odds are accurate at the time of writing.

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