Tomorrow, Wednesday, April 12th, Chelsea will travel to The Bernabeu to face Real Madrid. It’s perhaps the last place they will want to go after a torrid recent spell in which they’ve failed to score on multiple occasions. This is Chelsea’s last chance at silverware. Can they get a result away from home, in Europe? I give my selection on the match below.
Champions League Now Real’s Main Priority
Real Madrid played Villareal Saturday just gone and lost at home, 3-2. I think deep down that Real already knew that the title is going to Barcelona but nevertheless, if they harboured thoughts that they still has a chance then they have no doubt gone. Real rested key players for that match with this duel in mind. Luka Modric and Toni Kroos both sat on the bench and will be fresh for this one. Modric did come on for 20mins but it shouldn’t be too much of a fatigue concern.
Real has a 2.67 xG stat at home this season. They score for fun with world-class forwards like Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo and Benzema. They beat Liverpool 1-0 in the home tie of the last round but that was with a 5-2 scoreline already in the bank (from the 1st leg)
In reality, Chelsea will have to go some way in getting a result against a team that has won their last 5 home matches in the Champions League. They have scored 13 goals in those 5 matches and conceded just 3.
Low Expectancy Could Free Up Chelsea
I think it’s fair to say that most people would be expecting a Real Madrid win here. Perhaps a Real Madrid rout. That could free up the Chelsea players and allow them to play with a freedom that perhaps they haven’t had recently. Or perhaps not. We will see.
One thing we can look at is how Frank Lampard affected Chelsea when coming in. Chelsea conceded in 82.6% of their matches before Lampard was hired in his first stint. However, after his first full season, Lampards Chelsea had conceded 54 goals. One thing we should not expect with Lampard is a strong defensive record. That’s a worry for a Chelsea team who are not scoring.
Head-to-Head and Team News
Real will bring Modric and Toni Kroos back into the first team for this match. Chelsea are unlikely to have Mason Mount available as he looks to have picked up an injury. Broja, Azpilicueta and Thiago Silva are also still out of this one. Kante looks like coming back into the first team. Which is huge for Chelsea.
Surprisingly, Chelsea have a good head-to-head record against Real Madrid. With 7 matches played. 4 wins for Chelsea. 2 draws and just 1 Real Madrid win. The two are facing each other in the knockout stages of the Champions League for the third consecutive season – the two teams have one win each in terms of progressing through. Not many teams can boast just 1 defeat in 7 against Real Madrid, though.
Real Madrid vs Chelsea Betting Tips
History suggests that this one will be a close one but I just can’t see a result here, where Real Madrid does not win. I think they’ll win this one by a couple. Perhaps 2-0 or 3-0. Perhaps 3-1 if Chelsea gets a goal. Either way, my main bet is Real to win at 8/11 with PaddyPower. I will also add a bet on Benzema scoring. Benzema has scored FIVE times against Chelsea in their 7 meetings. Mount has scored 2 for Chelsea and he is unlikely to play here.
Real Madrid to beat Chelsea 8/11 Paddypower
Benzema to score 11/10 Bet365
Benzema to have 2+ shots on target and Havertz 2+ fouls committed 5/2 Paddypower
All odds accurate at time of writing
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