Cardiff vs Reading Betting Preview – Bluebirds to haul themselves from trouble?

Friday night’s game is an 8pm GMT kick-off in a clash of out-of-form Championship strugglers, out to ensure that mistakes of the past don’t cost them their Championship status, although both took a step closer to retaining their status with victory in midweek. Let’s take a look at my Cardiff vs Reading betting preview here.

Cardiff’s midweek lift

Cardiff were on a run of four straight defeats, and 12 league games without a win, before Tuesday’s 2-0 victory at Birmingham, which gave them their first points of Sabri Lamouchi’s reign.

The result lifted the Bluebirds two points clear of the drop zone, though Wigan, Blackpool and Huddersfield each have a game in hand, having themselves appointed new managers.

By current PPG projections, 46 points will suffice for survival, in which case the capital club require another 14 from as many remaining games: play as they did at St Andrews’ and they should tick off those points, although if the tally rises due to resurgence from those below, the task becomes more difficult.

Reading’s Tuesday turnaround

Reading ended a six-league game winless streak in midweek, by overturning a half-time deficit to beat Rotherham 2-1. After a disappointing first half, Paul Ince made a double substitution to facilitate a switch from 3-5-2 to 4-3-3, with Tyrese Fornah and Femi Azeez replacing Shane Long and Junior Hoilett respectively.

Operating with a back-four allowed them to get an extra body up the pitch, apply more pressure, get more crosses and set pieces into the box – and it helped that they had one of English football’s biggest headed goal specialists of the 21st century to take advantage of that, with Andy Carroll powering home Azeez’s free-kick before Fornah headed home the 90th-minute winner.

The tactics board

The big question for Reading is whether Ince sees Tuesday’s second-half set-up as a mere Plan B to go to when chasing games, or a blueprint to remedy his side’s poor form. Natives are hoping it’s the latter, and we see the 4-3-3 at the Cardiff City Stadium on Friday night, but the 55-year-old has only started with a back-four on two occasions this season – recent evidence suggests he’ll revert to type.

Cardiff, meanwhile, will likely look to stick with a winning formula, with the likeliest alteration being forward Callum Robinson coming in, after an energetically impactful appearance from the bench in B9, for Kion Etete.

It’s getting to a high-stakes period of the season for City, who will want to establish a synergy between an XI so that the players can revert to some sort of muscle memory at those pressured points.

A midfield trio of dynamo Andy Rinomhota, against his old club, controller Ryan Wintle and creator Romaine Sawyers is respectable: each brings different qualities to the equation and have thrived at this level before.

The betting angle

Cardiff have got a better team than the results suggest. Their Open Play Expected Goals For is 23.31, ranking them 15th in the Championship, Against it’s 24.76 (10th), and they also have the best Set Piece xG Against in the Championship at 6.58, so all that has held them back is small details at both ends.

Opponents have often been clinical against the Bluebirds, who have at times themselves missed a ruthless goalscoring presence whilst struggling to replicate their set-piece expertise in defence, in attack: four goals, fewest in the Championship, with an SP xGF of 5.73, ranking them 23rd in that metric.

Striker Sory Kaba, though, has made a positive impression since joining on loan from FC Midtjylland and if he can strike up a good partnership with Kaba, then perhaps the last piece of the jigsaw for Cardiff to become a safe, midtable outfit can click into place.

The hosts can be backed at 21/20 for the victory with Bet365, but it’s hard to see them running riot, so Under 2.5 goals at 4/6 holds appeal too.

Alternatively, it’s possible to combine those two picks for a 3/1 on Cardiff to win and Under 2.5 goals at 3/1 with the same bookmaker.

Cardiff vs Reading betting tips

Cardiff to win – 21/20 with Bet365

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 – 4/6 with Bet365

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