ELO Football Match Ratings

ELO Ratings Intro

These ratings were created by Sir Puntalot back in 1997 and the formula has never changed since then. They were designed to find a way of seeing at a glance, what the true performance of teams were in a match, and not just be guided by the scoreline. You could read tens of match reports, but spending hours doing that every week is not my idea of fun! Hence, the ratings were born.

Scroll down to find out how they work and what the difference between the "Performance Ratings" and "Prediction Ratings" are, but they are very much one and the same thing. Explanation and examples below, and there's plenty of discussion of the ratings on our world famous forum.




ELO Performance Ratings

The ELO performance ratings were where it all started and they were designed to always give a true reflection of a match, and rather than babble on, we'll show examples below. Performance ratings are produced AFTER the match has been played.


ELO Performance Ratings Example

So, example above shows a match from 2016/2017 Championship season. First of all take note of all the matches that have a diamond next to them, these are highlighted to show you at a glance where result didn't necessarily match performance.

So in the example above, Newcastle clearly outplayed Leeds to quite a big degree and having watched this match myself, the ratings were spot on. Newcastle on all the stats deserved to win, but they didn't.

Let's take a more extreme example now. ELO Performance Ratings Example B


Not only did Huddersfield have a higher rating and out perform Ipswich, but they also managed to lose the match! This is a classic example of why I created the ratings, but I've seen more extreme examples. So, Huddersfield were far better on the day, but possibly got hit on the counter and just couldn't put the ball in the net at the other end. Huddersfield rated higher and lost the match.




ELO Prediction Ratings

So now I hear you saying, yeah that's fantastic, but how does that help me when I need to know BEFORE the match to have an edge over the bookmaker? Well, fear not, oh impatient one!

The prediction ratings ARE the performance ratings! Confused? Ok, more screenshots below and explanations.

At the time of writing this, we'll have to use the Brazilian Serie A as an example as it's in full flow.

ELO Predictions Ratings Example


So it's as simple as this the prediction ratings above are based on each teams past performance ratings. Home ratings are completely separate to Away ratings, as teams more often than not play very differently depending on their setup.

So if we take Sao Paulo v Cruzeiro as the first example above. Their away ratings for Cruzeiro are an average of 55.00 over their last 4 games, and an average of 63.00 over their last 2 games, which is alarmingly good. The figures in red to the right indicate that they are 18.00 rating points better than Sao Paulo on their last 4 away match average, and 21.00 rating points better than Sao Paulo on their last 2 away match average.

In the far right, RED means away team has a better rating, GREEN means the home team has the advantage.

However, you can see an example above of Atletico Paranaense v Bahia, where AP are pretty much level with Bahia on their last 4 averages (42.00 & 43.00) with a 1.00 difference, yet significantly ahead on the last 2 averages (55.50 v 34.50), which would suggest AP have improved their form and possibly Bahia slipped a little.


So, going back to Cruzeiro as the original example, let's see how their last 2 games average of 63.00 was calculated.

cruzeiro ratings example c


cruzeiro ratings example b

Above are the "Performance Ratings" of Cruzeiro's last 2 matches and a great example of why the ratings are soooo good! So, Cruzeiro had an away rating of 67.00 versus Avai on July 23rd and an away rating of 59.00 versus Vasco da Gama on August 3rd.

59.00 + 67.00 = 126.00 and divide that by 2 to get their last 2 games away rating average, which is 63.00 as you see above on the "Prediction Ratings". If you want to just check the last rating of any team, then simply click the performance ratings tab and look for their last home or away match to see that, it's that simple.

Now, the GREAT thing about this example is it shows a really EXTREME example of why I created the ratings. Look at the match above on July 23rd - Avai effectively got battered and I do mean this must have been like The Alamo as Cruzeiro lost 1-0 but were a massive 47.00 points ahead on the Performance Ratings!

However, they made sure they didn't make the same mistake against Vasco, tonking them 3-0! :-)

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