Free Bets
The big betting race this Saturday is the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown. This premier handicap is run over 2 miles 7 furlongs and 98 yards and is open to horses aged 4 years or older. 15 go to post and the off time is 2.55. Here is my look at the best horse racing tips available for this race.
Topofthegame but top of the field?
Topofthegame won this in 2018 before going on to win at that year’s Cheltenham festival. Some bookmakers offer each-way terms of 5 places which makes the race a good betting proposition. The race was abandoned in 2012, 2013 and 2014 due to the weather and there was no race in 2021 so there is a smaller size of data than the ideal but we’ll have a bash anyway.
Count the calories
I have looked at the statistics for this race and these are my key conclusions. Those horses carrying lighter loads have a good record. Horses carrying less than 10st 11ilbs have won 6 times from 50 attempts with a level stakes profit of £15. Their heavier opposition have a record of 1 win from 52 attempts with a loss of £46.
It is better to side with experienced horses. Those horses that have had more than 13 runs have produced 4 wins from 24 runs and a profit of £24. Their less experienced competitors have 3 wins from 78 runs and a loss of £55.
Avoid the outsiders
Outsiders have a poor record in this race. There have been 52 horses with forecast odds higher than 11/1 and all have lost. It is best to sidestep those horses with obvious from. Horses that have had more than 3 wins in their last 10 runs have produced 0 wins from 7 runs. Having said that, there should be some evidence that a horse has winning form, there have been 11 horses with 0 wins in their last 10 runs and they have all lost. There are 2 horses that match these criteria.
COQUELICOT – available at 10/1 with William Hill, 5 places.
GREEN BOOK – available at 10/1 with Bet365, 4 places.
Green Book won this last year under the same jockey. I recommend backing these each way
All odds accurate at the time of writing.
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