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Twenty-four runners look set to lock horns in the race that “stops a nation” this coming Tuesday. The two-mile contest is the most valuable race of its type anywhere in the world. It takes just over three minutes to run it on the left-handed track at Flemington and attracts its fair share of runners from as far away as the UK and Ireland.
European trainers have a good recent record here when they have come over. Joseph O’Brien has won two of the last five renewals with Rekindling and Twilight Payment whilst Charlie Appleby won it in 2018 with Cross Counter. Germany, France, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore have also had representatives win here in the past too. Unbelievably Saeed Bin Suroor has tried to win this race as a trainer nineteen times in the past and has failed at each attempt, whilst Joseph’s father Aidan O’Brien has never won the race from seventeen previous attempts.
The weather forecast for the week ahead in Melbourne is for nothing but rain so it may prove foolish to back a horse that enjoys the ground as hard as a road. You will more than likely need a mudlark to pull you out this year and so I have identified a few of those in this Melbourne Cup betting preview.
Melbourne Cup Betting Tips
Deauville Legend
He is an up-and-coming three-year-old who was last seen winning the Great Voltigeur at York back in August. That performance came on quite firm going and he is completely unproven on this type of surface or proven at the trip. His price is very short based on these facts and no three-year-old has won this race since Skipton in 1941. Connections look confident to send him, but history is against him.
Loft
This four-year-old German trained horse won the Belmont Gold Cup on firm ground back in June and his price is based in and around that performance. He stepped back in trip to a mile-and-six furlongs in the Chester Vase and was soundly beaten by River Of Stars. He goes back to two miles here, but all of his best form has come on better ground. Another whose price is based on reputation and nothing more.
Without A Fight
A five-year-old gelding who has experience of travelling abroad and running well in valuable races for the Crisford’s. He was a fine second in Meydan back in the Spring where he chased home Hukum over a mile-and-a-half just to be beaten a head in a Group 2 race. He has improved on that performance with two good wins at York during the Summer in listed and Group 3 company both over a mile-and-six furlongs. This is the furthest he will have ever raced but he is a seven-time winner and is proven on a variety of surfaces. Unlikely to go down without a fight and has to be considered.
Gold Trip
Appears to be Australia’s lead hope here and he has run well in preparation for this by placing second in the Caulfield Cup last month. He was just touched off under similar conditions by Durston when ridden by Mark Zahra and the same jockey is once again on board here. If he stays this far, he has to be in the mix, but, given his one career win to date (back in 2020), he will almost likely find one too good especially carrying top-weight.
Montefilia
Montefilia could well be primed to land this race. She looked incredibly unlucky when getting stuck in her run in the Caulfield Cup when finishing in behind Durston and Gold Trip. This extra yardage should see her in a much better light especially if the ground gets even more testing. Being from the family of Shirocco (who all revel in the mud) will certainly help and now with a run under her belt she should come here in peak form. The yard is in much better form now and she can play a big part in the finish.
Hoo Ya Mal
George Boughey has not been put off by the run of Hoo Ya Mal last time out at Doncaster. A former runner up in the Epsom Derby is the highlight of his career but being well beaten by the likes of Eldar Eldarov and New London in the St Leger, the run just doesn’t scream future Melbourne Cup winner. He also has to overcome the hideous record that three-year-olds have in this race as mentioned before and will face an uphill struggle.
Duais
She certainly finished with a flourish last time out in the Caulfield Cup suggesting that this extra trip would suit her better. Unlike many of these she has proven winning experience at the track as she landed the Australian Cup here back in March. She has recorded three previous wins on a soft surface and also is just as effective on better ground. She just hasn’t looked as effective this season, but she could well prove to be a lively outsider.
Knights Order
This horse will certainly revel in the conditions and is certainly not shy when it comes to finding the winners’ enclosure. He is fully effective on wet ground having won the Sydney Cup on it and this sort of trip is well within his comfort zone. Trained by the legendary Gai Waterhouse, the only issue is whether he will handle this track. He is winless from five attempts around here, but he comes here in much better form this time around and he could well sneak a place.
Numerian
If he sounds familiar that is because he is an Irish import that used to be trained by Joseph O’Brien. He certainly won’t mind the conditions and he has proved a success story since moving to the yard of Annabel Neasham. He seemed to be all at sea last time in the Caulfield Cup and there have to be massive question marks over him getting home over this extra distance. Not one to rely on here.
Camorra
Camorra won a good recent trial for this race when taking the Curragh Cup back in June. Back then she when trained by Ger Lyons, but the five-year-old daughter of Zoffany failed to excite in Group One company next time when trailing in twenty lengths behind Kyprios in the Irish St Leger. This marks her debut for Ben and JD Hayes, but she really will need to find something extra in order to get involved.
Stockman
Revels in the mud as proven when landing the St Leger at Royal Randwick on his penultimate start. The New Zealand trained six-year-old then went to Rosehill Gardens and dropped back in trip. He could only muster a midfield finishing position and needs to find more. The last time he attempted this trip he was beaten well over a dozen lengths and whilst he could sneak a place at best, he is unlikely to trouble the judge.
Realm Of Flowers
Purposefully lightly trained with this race in mind having been taken out of The Archer on Derby Day. She has an excellent record on turf and really loves it when she can get her toe in on a soft surface. These staying trips cause her no problems as she has finished second at Royal Randwick over this same trip. She sneaks in here off a featherweight and is certainly capable of filling the frame if on a going day.
Lunar Flare
Lunar Flare is no stranger to this track having won here twice in the past and placed on another two occasions. The seven-year-old mare tries this trip for the first time but if she stays, she will prove a live threat to all. She was a good second on her most recent appearance in heavy ground at The Valley in a Group 2 race. That should have left her pretty much spot on for this and no surprise if she goes extremely close off a light weight.
Verdict
Despite the influx of foreign raiders, there are a few local horses who ought to find a lot in their favour. MONTEFILIA endured a luckless run in the Caulfield Cup and deserves to land a good prize such as this. LUNAR FLARE loves it around here and will make the frame is seeing out the trip. The best of the raiders could prove to be WITHOUT A FIGHT who has the assistance of Will Buick in the saddle for Simon and Ed Crisford.
Suggested Stakes:
2pts E/W Montefilia @ 13/1 with Betfair
1pt E/W Lunar Flare @ 21/1 with Betfair
1pt E/W Without A Fight @ 11/1 with Betfair
