John Smith’s Cup Handicap Stakes Tips (15/07/23) – York 15:10

Known until 1988 as the Magnet Cup, the John Smith’s Cup is run over 1m 2F 56 yards and is open to horses aged three years or older. It has been sponsored by John Smith’s Brewery since its conception in 1960, making it the longest-running commercial sponsorship in all of British horse racing.

It normally takes a horse vying in group class to take this and was won last year by Owen Burrow’s Anmaat who went on to win in Group 1 company earlier this year in France. Here is my horse-by-horse analysis of the runners and riders in this big race scheduled for 15:10 at York on Saturday along with my free horse racing tips for the race.

Cadillac

Trainer: George Boughey
Jockey: Christian Howarth (5)

Famous for being sold on the eve of Royal Ascot last season for £500,000 at the Goffs London Sale prior to running well to finish second to Dubai Future in the listed Wolferton Stakes. 12/1 winner of Epsom handicap at Derby meeting in first-time cheek pieces and got no sort of run in this year’s Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot when beating only one home. Plenty of weight here (5lb higher than Epsom).

Certain Lad

Trainer: Jack Channon
Jockey: George Bass (3)

Finished 11th (of 22) in last year’s renewal beaten 5 3/4L and 2lb lower now. Their best effort this season came at Chester in May on soft ground when running third to Pride Of America. Out of his depth in listed Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot and was a non-runner on consecutive days at Sandown and Haydock last weekend.

Pride Of America

Trainer: Amy Murphy
Jockey: Frederick Larson (3)

Made all to win at Chester at their May meeting off of a mark of 102 and beat only one home since in Group 3 at Longchamp the following month when probably out of his depth. All his best form has come on easy surfaces and can only really be considered here were the ground to ride soft.

Sea The Casper

Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford
Jockey: Andrea Atzeni

Ready winner of six runner class 3 handicap at Lingfield on the all-weather following a 231-day layoff and carries a 5lb penalty for that victory today. Goes up 9lb in future handicaps ao is effectively 4lb well in here. Only lightly raced having only seen a racecourse eight times and this well handicapped Sea The Stars gelding has definite claims.

White Wolf

Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor
Jockey: Paul Hanagan

Yet to win on turf in five attempts (two wins from four runs on the all-weather). Ran with plenty of credit mind over 12F in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot in finishing 7th (beaten 3 1/2L) having taken a keen hold. Drops in trip here which may well suit and is considered a lively outsider.

Makinmedoit

Trainer: Harry Eustace
Jockey: Pierre -Louis Jamin

Won three times last year at Brighton (maiden), Salisbury (10F firm) and Lingfield (10F AW). Was out of her depth when last of seven in Ayr listed race following a 123-day break in May and has not been seen since. Handicapper may have him currently and may need some respite from him before troubling the judge again.

Sonny Liston

Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Jockey: Daniel Tudhope

Won his side by a couple of lengths in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot last month in first-time blinkers. Steps up in trip here and there is a slight doubt over whether he will stay this far (actually finished 17th of 19 in Desert Crown’s Derby last Summer). 4lb well in here and another possible if seeing out the trip.

Astro King

Trainer: Daniel & Claire Kubler
Jockey: Tom Eaves

Very unlucky on the first run for the Kubler’s here at the Dante May meeting when short of room inside the final furlong finishing 4th, only beaten 1 1/4L. That was not only his first run for a new stable (formerly with Sir Michael Stoute) but also his first since being gelded. Beaten early in the Royal Hunt Cup the following month finishing 21st of 30 (beaten 18L), a race in which he had finished placed in the previous two years. He’s better than that run and steps up 2F today. Went off 4/1 favourite in this race in 2021 when finishing 12th of 20 (beaten 6 1/2L) and races off of the same mark today. Rain would be against.

Dawn Of Liberation

Trainer: Richard Hannon
Jockey: Jason Watson

Has dropped 6lb in the handicap this season for three efforts in handicaps, the best being a 4L fourth to Boardman at Chester’s May meeting. 66/1 and soundly beaten in Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot last time out and hard to fancy on that effort.

Millesbosc

Trainer: William Haggas
Jockey: Tom Marquand

Ran third in the French Derby in 2021 when trained in France by Mlle Stephanie Nigge but never really went on from that run and is now in the care of William Haggas at Newmarket. Just the one run for Haggas when 5th of 10 in all-weather class 2 handicap last November. Gelded since and is yet to race on fast ground so wouldn’t want the ground to ride too fast. Interesting runner if ever coming back to his French Derby form for a trainer who’s won this race three times in the last eleven years with Green Destiny (2021), Danchai (2013) and Sinjaari (2020).

Spirit Dancer

Trainer: Richard Fahey
Jockey: Oisin Orr

Good record on the Knavesmire with form figures of 544123 all coming in decent double-figure field handicaps. Included in that sequence was his fourth, only beaten a length in last year’s renewal having suffered interference approaching the final furlong by winner and subsequent Group 1 winner Anmaat. He made amends over course and distance a fortnight later and made a highly promising reappearance when third of 13 in a class 2 handicap over course and distance at the Dante May meeting here. Same handicap mark today and must be thereabouts if overcoming his wide draw.

Marie’s Diamond

Trainer: Roger Fell & Sean Murray
Jockey: Jason Hart

Not won for two years when in the care of Mark Johnston but has run credibly on occasions since, noticeably when runner up over course and distance in May, going down by a neck to Marhaba The Champ with Spirit Dancer 1/2L back in third. Out of her grade only run since and is now 6lb lower than her last winning mark. Not out of this at a big price if on the top of her game.

Haunted Dream

Trainer: Ed Dunlop
Jockey: Clifford Lee

Chelmsford winner in April and ran very well at Sandown last Saturday when 3/4L runner up to Lord Protector in a 10F handicap despite taking a keen hold. 2lb well in here and hold each-way claims with conditions to suit.

Nobel

Trainer: Andrew Balding
Jockey: Cieren Fallon

Lightly raced Lope De Vega four-year-old. Has won three of his five career starts including when impressively winning 10F handicap at Newcastle on the all-weather a fortnight ago when making all. Handicapper has reacted by putting him up 9lb but only carries a 5lb penalty here so is effectively 4lb well in. Still unexposed and could easily play a part in the finish for Qatar Racing. Stable has a good record in race having won two of the last four renewals.

Majestic

Trainer: Jack Channon
Jockey: Connor Beasley

Winner of last season’s Cambridgeshire off of a handicap mark 6lb lower than today’s. Kept good handicap company all season, running well and it wouldn’t be a shock were he to run well although he’s maybe just a pound or two too high in the weights currently.

Marhaba The Champ

Trainer: Kevin Ryan
Jockey: Sam James

Lightly raced four-year-old who took a decent handicap over course and distance on his re-appearance by a neck from Marie’s Diamond and Spirit Dancer. Flopped at Epsom a fortnight later in first-time tongue tie which the trainer stated afterwards was the reason for his lacklustre effort. Only 4lb higher than his York win and has a definite each-way chance.

Scampi

Trainer: Andrew Balding
Jockey: Callumn Hutchinson (3)

A winner here at York racecourse back in May over 12f and ran a stormer last Saturday in the Old Newton Cup to finish 1/2L runner-up to Wootton’Sun over 12F. In good form but the drop from 2F to 10F may not be ideal. Stable has won two of the last four runnings.

Long Tradition

Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor
Jockey: Rowan Scott

Lightly raced six-year-old who has obviously been hard to train. Very easy winner under 5lb claimer Christian Howarth at Chelmsford last month following a 607-day layoff, storming home to win by 5L and races here with just a 5lb penalty. Will be 9lb higher in future handicaps and a must for every shortlist as long as he doesn’t bounce. If there is one horse here that is way ahead of his mark it could well be him.

Howth

Trainer: Michael Appleby
Jockey: Royston Ffrench

Won only one of his eighteen career starts and has not shown enough recently to suggest that he’s about to trouble the judge.

Postmark

Trainer: Milton Harris
Jockey: Duran Fentiman

Ran ok last week at Sandown as a 66/1 chance and will need to take another massive step forward to take a hand in the finish.

Faylaq

Trainer: Jim Goldie
Jockey: Cam Hardie

Been a while since he visited the winner’s enclosure. Has shown promise in three starts for Jim Goldie (formerly trained by Ewan Whillans) with his latest third at Newcastle to La Hacienda his best recent run. On a 23-running losing streak.

Cockalorum

Trainer: Roger Fell & Sean Murray
Jockey: James Sullivan

Dual Ripon winner earlier this season on soft and fast ground. Not as good on the next three starts and was 7L behind rival Nobel at Newcastle on the all-weather last time. A bit to find on recent form and is 2lb out of the handicap here.

The City’s Phantom (Reserve)

Trainer: Richard Spencer
Jockey: TBA

First reserve. 3lb wrong at the weights though did actually run well at Epsom on Derby day last time out at 50/1. Career best needed to just hit the frame if getting into the race.

John Smith’s Cup Handicap Stakes Betting Tips

As always a very tight-knit handicap in which several can be given chances. Two of the best-handicapped horses are Nobel and Long Tradition who both carry penalties for recent easy all-weather successes and are officially 4lb and 9lb well in here today.

Spirit Dancer ran a stormer in this race last year when he was forced across the track by eventual winner (and future Group One winner) Anmaat. He has an excellent track record and has to be part of the staking plan although a very wide draw of 19 may not be ideal.

1. Long Tradition 1/2 point e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365 bonus code (Paying top 6 places at 1/5 odds)

2. Spirit Dancer 1/2 point e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365 (Paying top 6 places at 1/5 odds)

All prices are available at the time of writing.