ITV Racing Tips (01/07/23) – Thermoscope can take Consolation Plate for Dagleish

The main meeting on Saturday is from the North East and Newcastle’s big day with the feature race being the Northumberland Plate, run earlier than usual due to the TV schedule for the England Women’s football friendly versus Portugal Women, at 14:05. We have three others from there with the consolation Plate as well as three from Newmarket.

The going is, of course, standard for Newcastle on the Tapeta surface and, following watering and 11mm of rain on Thursday, is good at Newmarket. Here are my thoughts and expert horse racing tips on how to beat the bookies.

Newcastle 12:20

Just the nine have declared for this 6F class 2 handicap with the one to beat last year’s winner Raatea, who is trained by Norton trainer Julie Camacho who must still be pinching herself following her stable star Shaquille’s Group 1 victory in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot last week. The six-year-old gelding Raatea is 5lb higher this time around but did win rather cosily last year by 2L and comes here on the back of a neck victory at Haydock for which she’s 3lb higher now. Jason Hart rode her last year and is re-united today.

His biggest threat may come from one of the two three-year-olds in the race in the shape of Harry & Roger Charlton’s Batal Dubai who scored in novice company over course and distance last September. Forget his re-appearance run as that was on heavy ground (and the stable was out of form) and he showed enough last time at Windsor to hint that his time is near again.

Lethal Levi was a bit disappointing in the Wokingham at Ascot last Saturday and has yet to race on this surface whilst the Irish runner Coachello, trained by Gordon Elliott has plenty of weight on here. I’ll take Raatea to continue his trainer’s golden spell although I do fear Batal Dubai.

RAATEA 1 point win @ 10/3 with Bet365 bonus code

Newmarket 12:40

Ten juveniles go to post for the opener at Newmarket races, the listed Empress Fillies’ Stakes run over 6F. The likely favourite is the Charlie Appleby Kodiac filly Star Of Mystery. She bumped into a useful newcomer of Karl Burke’s on her debut at Doncaster when runner-up to Carla’s Way, beaten 2 1/4L. That one was a bit disappointing at Royal Ascot when only finishing 8th in the Albany when going off 10/3 favourite. Star Of Mystery went on from there to win a nine-runner Haydock novice stakes when a 1/3 chance by eleven lengths and will be hard to beat here under William Buick.

The big danger may turn out to be Charlie Johnston’s What A Question who looked useful when making a winning debut at Goodwood a fortnight ago, winning by 4L. She may not have beaten much (only three have run from the race since showing very little) but she visually did it in fine style and is worthy of her place here under James Doyle.

Richard Hannon’s Ziggy’s Phoenix has shown promise in her short career winning twice but I think we know where we are with her whilst Clive Cox’s Unbreak My Heart won at Bath last time on firm ground and should appreciate this slightly easier surface.

At the prices, I’ll play each way on the Johnston filly What A Question.

WHAT A QUESTION 1 point each way @ 9/2 with BetVictor promo code (Paying top 3 places at 1/5 odds)

Newcastle 12:55

An interesting renewal of the Group 3 JenningsBet Chipchase Stakes with eight speedsters confirmed to run. The best treated at today’s weights is Hugo Palmer’s Brad The Brief. He hasn’t been seen for 259 days but has a very good record fresh with form figures of 111 following a break of 190 days or more so possibly won’t lack fitness.

A Group 2 winner at The Curragh 15 months ago he was last seen when down the field in the Group 1 Champions Sprint on Champions Day last October. Oisin Murphy is booked and he should go well. Also on the shortlist is James Tate’s Mount Athos (he also runs the trip dropper Iconic Moment here). He looked like a sprinter going places following two easy victories in handicap company at Kempton prior to a rather disappointing 2nd to the re-opposing Spycatcher on soft ground when last seen in April.

He’s been off ten weeks since and has had a wind operation so maybe he was struggling in that aspect on soft ground that day. He’s only ever run at 7F but has always shown a sharp turn of foot so dropping back to 6F may be a good move. I included him in my flat ten to follow for the season as a potential sprinter so he’s worth chancing today.

William Haggas’s Tiber Flow has a good record on this track of 112 with the second coming on All-Weather Championships Day when short-headed by El Caballo 16 months ago. He’s not been disgraced in two starts this season and is another with claims. Spycatcher ran in this last year, going off just 7/2 but ran a shocker beating just one home and that has to be a concern here even if he did beat Mount Athos easily in April.

A tight contest but I’m sticking with Mount Athos.

MOUNT ATHOS 1 point each way @ 11/2 with Bet365 (Paying top 3 places at 1/5 odds)

Newmarket 13:15

A small but selective field of just five assembles for this listed Fred Archer Stakes run over 1M 4F for four-year-olds and upwards. It’s a tough race to decipher with the two principals coming back from lengthy absences. The Charlie Appleby trained New London hasn’t been seen for 293 days and sports a first-time tongue tie as well as having had a wind operation since last seen. A Group 3 winner at Goodwood last July and runner-up ( beaten 2 1/2L) in the St Leger, he’s a classy staying type and if straight enough should be hard to beat despite having to shoulder a 5lb penalty for his Goodwood victory.

At today’s weights, the William Haggas-trained Al Aasy is rated a 2lb super horse but he too hasn’t been seen for 420 days and is a quirky sort to boot who may prefer more cut in the ground than is likely this afternoon. He has won first time out the last two seasons so maybe an absence won’t be too much of an issue for him.

Kemari appears to be the Godolphin second string here although has always shown ability whilst James Horton’s Phantom Flight has run well on both of his outings this season in listed company at 10F and takes the step up to a mile and a half for the first time here. His dam stayed this far and his two winning half brothers both won at 1M 4F so in the hope that the trip may bring about a bit of improvement he’s the selection to small stakes with a few question marks to be answered with the front two in the market. James Horton has had a torrid time this season with his main patron disgracing himself and hopefully Phantom Flight can put a smile back on his face.

PHANTOM FLIGHT 1 point win @ 17/2 with BetVictor

Newcastle 13:30

The Consolation Northumberland Vase at Newcastle racecourse is for those that missed the cut in the Plate and have seen fourteen line up over the same distance of the Plate of 2M 56 yards. Six of the fourteen are trying this trip for the first time including recent Lingfield 1M 4F one-two Appier, trained by Sean Woods and Citizen General, trained by Ed Dunlop. The latter is 5lb better off for a beating of 1 3/4L and there shouldn’t be much between the pair though as I said earlier stamina may well be an issue in a race where you will need to stay well.

Irish handler Matthew J Smith brings over a brace of six-year-olds with a clear preference for his La Hacienda, who racked up three handicap victories last Summer rising 13lb in the weights. If her re-appearance run can be believed she has to have a big chance today. She split Taipan and Wordsworth who are rated 100 and 106 respectively so that she can race today off of only 85 and could have improved further.

Towards the bottom of the handicap, we have Ian Williams’ Blow Your Horn who’s chasing a four-timer following wins at Doncaster, Beverley & Pontefract and stays well. He too can be competitive. The one I’m keen on though is the Keith Dagleish-trained five-year-old Thermoscope. He looked a vastly improved horse when bolting up on his seasonal re-appearance and first start for Dagleish at Musselburgh in May, landing the odds by 9L. That was over two miles and he was never stronger than at the finish.

His only subsequent start came over 3F shorter in a dawdling type of race where he finished only 3rd of four beaten 4 1/2L. He’s a lot better than that with the added bonus of course experience (he was a course and distance winner for his previous stable of Brian Ellison back in October) and looks like the one to be with today. I can’t however resist a saver on La Hacienda who could be very well treated.

THERMOSCOPE 1 point each way @ 8/1 with Bet365 (Paying top 4 places at 1/5 odds)

LA HACIENDA 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 with Bet365 (Paying top 4 places at 1/5 odds)

Newmarket 13:50

Only six run in this 7F Group 3 Criterion Stakes but five can be given a chance of sorts. Jumby impressed when coming late to win the Group 3 John Of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock last time and can go well again although a 3lb penalty for that victory hardly helps.

William Haggas’s Aldaary is the best in at the weights and would have appreciated Wednesday night’s rain and constant watering as he’s a real mudlark who loves to get his toe in. His form figures when the word soft (or heavy) area in the title read 1113111 whilst without reads 557. We haven’t seen him since he won first time out last season (he’s three from three first time out in his career)in a listed contest at Haydock in May 2022 but if there is sufficient give in the ground he’s the one to beat.

John & Thady Gosden’s Audience hasn’t been seen since winning at Leicester in October and will need to improve to worry these whilst Sam Maximus is trying a new trip of 7F and again will need to improve plenty.

Andrew Balding’s Berkshire Shadow takes a drop in class having contested and not been disgraced in the Lockinge (3rd at 33/1 to Modern Games beaten 2 1/2L) and 5th in Queen Anne Stakes (5th to Triple Time beaten 5L). Both of those were at a mile and he takes a drop-in trip today.

Pogo was 4 1/2L behind Berkshire Shadow at Ascot last week having taken a keen hold and with a drop to 7F very much in his favour can get much closer today. He has an outstanding record at Newmarket with the two racecourses combined reading 1112221 with a perfect two from two at today’s July course including this race last year. In a tight contest, I’ll take Berkshire Shadow to confirm last week’s placings with Pogo with the drying conditions likely going against Aldaary, who it wouldn’t be a shock were he to be pulled out.

BERKSHIRE SHADOW 1 point win @ 9/2 with Bet365

Newcastle 14:05

And finally the feature race at Newcastle, the Northumberland Plate, one of the most valuable two-mile handicaps in the world and as always a fiendishly hard race to crack. My two against the field at prices of 16/1 and 6/1 can be found in my Northumberland Plate Handicap tips preview.

All odds are available at the time of writing.