It is a quiet Saturday with the hotly-anticipated Cheltenham Festival being just over a week away. The most competitive handicap is the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso but this has only been run as a handicap since 2021 so there isn’t really enough data to base any meaningful conclusions on.
We will therefore concentrate on the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury. Greatwood is a charity for the welfare of retired racehorses. The race is run over a distance of 2 miles, 3 furlongs and 187 yards. It is open to horses aged 5 years or older.
There is a disappointing turnout of just 7 runners. However, some bookmakers offer each-way terms of 3 places which does offer some value.
DON’T WORRY ABOUT THE WEIGHT
The race has been lost to the weather twice in the last 9 years but we still have 7 years of statistics to analyse. These are my key conclusions.
Those horses high in the weights have a good record. Horses carrying more than 11st 2lbs have won 5 times from 34 runs with a level stakes profit of 7 points. Their lighter opposition have a record of 2 wins from 46 runs with a loss of 33 points.
Horses that won last time out do not have a good record. They have won just once from 17 attempts.
The market is a good guide. Those with forecast odds less than 13/2 have won 4 times from 20 runs with a profit of 4 points.
There is only one horse that matches these criteria.
PAINT THE DREAM – available at 3/1 with several bookmakers who are paying 3 places. Paint The Dream won this race last year under the same jockey, Conor Brace.
Although the price is short it is still worth backing it each-way.
If you enjoyed reading this take on the Greatwood Gold Cup then be sure to keep an eye out for Michael Clarke’s coverage of the Cheltenham Festival on our Cheltenham Tips page.
All odds accurate at the time of writing.