Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes Tips, Trends, & Analysis (18/05/24) – 15:35 York

The Dante Stakes had its inaugural running in 1958, the Group 2 flat race is run over a trip of just over one mile and two furlongs (56 yards) at York and is normally run in May and serves as a trial for the Epsom Derby. The race is open to three-year-old runners where all runners will carry an equal weight of 9-0 with the exception of any fillies who will get a 3lb allowance and any Group 1 winner who gets a 3lb penalty.

In total, eleven winners of the race have achieved victory in the Derby. The first was St Paddy in 1960, and the most recent was Desert Crown in 2022. The 2014 Dante Stakes winner, The Grey Gatsby, subsequently won France’s equivalent of the Derby, the Prix du Jockey Club while the 2015 runner-up, Jack Hobbs, and 2021 winner Hurricane Lane, both won the Irish Derby.

Sir Michael Stoute has trained the winner of this race seven times since 1986 and is tied with the late Sir Henry Cecil for the most amount of wins as a trainer. Aidan O’Brien has won in four times, but no Irish-trained horse has won this since Cape Blanco in 2010.

I have listed the runners for this years’ renewal and given a brief assessment of their chances below;

1. Canberra Legend

Trainer: James Ferguson
Jockey: Daniel Muscutt

Unbeaten in two starts since making his debut back in February at Newcastle. He stepped up in grade and trip last time to win the listed Fielden Stakes at Newbury. The form of that race has not really worked out this far though and you get the impression that he will need to progress again. He has fitness on his side though and his jockey is undefeated on him so he is entitled to respect.

2. Continuous

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore

Also unbeaten in two starts including when winning a Group 3 race at Saint-Cloud last season. The form of that race has been tested a number of times though and has yet to have a winner emerge from it. Aidan O’Brien used to be a dab hand at winning this race, but despite numerous attempts since the success of Cape Blanco in 2010, all have ended in failure. Ballydoyle haven’t really been firing on all cylinders as of yet and whilst respected, this is his toughest ask to date.

3. Dancing Magic

Trainer: Roger Teal
Jockey: Kieran Shoemark

Was last seen trying to make all in a Group 3 Craven Stakes at Newmarket last month but got collared in the closing stages. He has a bit to find with the re-opposing The Foxes on that basis. He has been beaten too easily in lesser races than this in the past and unless he has improved in leaps and bounds since last season, it is hard to see him making the frame. Others are less exposed and he is readily passed over.

4. Dear My Friend

Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Jockey: Andrea Atzeni

Made the perfect start to his two-year-old career when landing back-to-back races at Carlisle and Beverley last season. Upped into Group 2 company on his subsequent start, he was beaten quite readily by the likes of Marbaan and Holloway Boy. He went on to be placed in listed and Group 3 company to round off his season. He made his seasonal reappearance at Newcastle last month and came back in winning form beating Flight Plan by a neck. Likely to come on for that run, he is likely to go well here once more but ultimately may find a few too good.

5. Epictetus

Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Jockey: Frankie Dettori

Was highly tried last season and got to within half-a-length of Auguste Rodin in a Group 1 at Doncaster last autumn. He made a successful winning reappearance over this trip when last seen out at Epsom in a listed contest. The yard knows exactly what type of horse that it takes to win this having done so three times since 2015 and Frankie Dettori is riding out of his skin at present. He looks to have an obvious chance and has strong claims.

6. Flying Honours

Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: William Buick

Won three races from five starts last tem including when upped to this trip on his final start at Newmarket in the Zetland Stakes. He has the beating of Dear My Friend on that basis and Godolphin landed this race back in 2021 with Hurricane Lane. This is his first run back since and if fully wound up by Charlie Appleby, he has to have every chance here. William Buick has a fantastic record in this race and bids for a fourth win inside the last decade.

7. Killybegs Warrior

Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Jockey: Franny Norton

Looks sure to be used as a pacemaker for his stablemate Dear My Friend. He did run his best race in a long time when chasing home Canberra Legend in the Fielden Stakes at Newmarket last time. He has definitely improved throughout the winter, but he just gives the impression he would be far better suited being in listed company and may not be completely up to taking an event such as this. He has got Franny Norton on board and the evergreen jockey has won this event twice in the last six seasons. The pair look to hold an outside chance at best.

8. King Of Steel

Trainer: Roger Varian
Jockey: Kevin Stott

Managed to win at the first time of asking last season when he was trained by Daniel Loughnane. Upped in grade to contest the Furturity Stakes at Doncaster just ten days later, he completely blew up and trailed in ten lengths behind the likes of Auguste Rodin. He is surely better than that and will appreciate this step up in trip, but he needs to reverse form with the likes of Epictetus and Dancing Magic. Looks to have a lot on his plate first time out for his new trainer.

9. Liberty Lane

Trainer: Karl Burke
Jockey: Clifford Lee

Looks a decent horse in the making but this looks like he may have bitten off more than he can chew. A good winner on debut at Nottingham last season, he justified favourtism and asserted himself by five-lengths to see off Mr Buster. The form of that maiden has been tested on multiple occasions and not one of his rivals has come out to win subsequently. This type of race should be well above his paygrade and likely to run as such.

10. Passenger

Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute
Jockey: Richard Kingscote

The winning most trainer of this race brings his undefeated Passenger into the fray. He was relatively unfancied on debut at Newbury and went on to land a good-looking maiden by three lengths. The fact that Sir Michael has decided that he seems to be up to the task of taking this is highly respected as nobody would know any better. The trip is an unknown but the way he won at Newbury last time suggests that he will see it out well. Representing the same winning trainer and jockey combination from last year, he has to command respect.

11. The Foxes

Trainer: Andrew Balding
Jockey: Oisin Murphy

Ran the race of his life when taking the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket when getting the better of Dubai Mile. He already has the beating of Flying Honours and with a run under his belt, he should be able to confirm form with the Charlie Appleby-trained runner. Although beaten on his seasonal reappearance by Indestructible, he should be able to confirm recent form with Dancing Magic who is also set to re-oppose. The yard is in excellent form and Oisin Murphy is no stranger to riding winners at York races. Likely to be there or thereabouts.

12. White Birch

Trainer: Joseph Murphy
Jockey: Shane Foley

Ran out a shock winner of the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown last month which was a significant step up on what he achieved when landing a Dundalk maiden by six-and-a-half-lengths last November. He beat some well-bred sorts in his last outing including the well-regarded Alexandroupolis and Mohawk Chief. The latter of those rivals has come out to give the form a boost so no forlorn hope here. The Irish have not won this race since

Betting Forecast with BET365: 7/2 Epictetus, 4/1 Flying Honours, 11/2 Continuous, 11/2 Passenger, 7/1 The Foxes, 7/1 Canberra Legend, 10/1 White Birch, 20/1 Dear My Friend, 25/1 Dancing Magic, 25/1 King Of Steel, 33/1 Liberty Lane, 50/1 Killybegs Warrior

Dante Stakes Tips

PASSENGER is taken to continue the excellent record that Sir Michael Stoute has in this race. Despite being relatively inexperienced, he can build on what was a most promising winning debut at Newbury last month under Richard Kingscote. The trainer and jockey won this race last year with Desert Crown who had a somewhat similar profile to this one. Epictetus has done nothing wrong and represents a yard that have also won this on numerous occasions in the past, but he is beatable. Flying Honours may just need this first run back and The Foxes can also make the frame.

1. Passenger
2. Epictetus
3. The Foxes