The big handicap over the Christmas period is the Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow, run the day after Boxing Day. This premier handicap is run over 3 miles, 6 furlongs and 130 yards and there are 23 fences to jump. 19 go to post and off time is 2.50.
Bindaree and Silver Birch both won this before going on to win the Aintree Grand National whilst Synchronised and Native River went on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup after winning this race.
Paddy Power and William Hill offer each-way terms of 6 places which makes the race an excellent betting proposition.
Best To Be Fit for Coral Welsh Grand National
I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 seasons and these are my key conclusions.
- It is helpful to have had a recent run. There have been 61 runners that have had a lay-off of more than 35 days and they all lost.
- Horses at the head of the market perform very well. Those horses with forecast odds less of 7/1 or less have a record of 4 wins from 14 runners compared to 5 wins from 160 for those at longer odds.
- Less exposed horses perform better than those that have run more often. Horses who have run less than 17 times have recorded 7 wins from 95 attempts compared to 2 from 79 for their more experienced opponents.
Only 2 horses match these criteria, QUICK WAVE (9/2) and THE GALLOPING BEAR (6/1) and it looks justified to have these 2 at the top of the market. I would suggest backing these each way with bookmakers who are offering 6 places.
Additionally, ss already indicated, favourites have a good record with 3 wins from 15 runners and Irish-bred horses have the best record with 7 wins from 111 runners.
Quick Wave is trained by Ventia Williams who has won this race twice before.