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This Saturday’s big handicap is the Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton. This event is named after the top-class racehorse Lanzarote who twice won the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton as well as the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham in 1974.
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William Henry won this in 2018 before going on to win at the same distance at the following year’s Cheltenham festival at 28/1. Ibis Du Rheu was 3rd in this before winning at that year’s festival at 14/1.
The race is run over 2 miles and 5 furlongs. 20 go to post and off time is 2.40.
Many bookmakers offer each-way terms of 6 places which makes the race an excellent betting proposition.
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I have looked at the statistics for this race and these are my key conclusions.
- I don’t normally favour inexperienced jockeys but the statistics never lie! Jockeys with claims of 3, 5 or 7lbs have won 6 times from 36 attempts. This compares to the experienced jockeys who have 3 wins from 92 attempts.
- It is best to sidestep those horses with obvious form. Horses that have had more than 1 win in their last 6 runs have produced 3 wins from 62 runs, those with just 1 win in their last 6 runs have produced 5 wins from 46 efforts.
- Horses should ideally have a reasonable rest. Those that last ran less than 24 days ago have won just once from 40 attempts, those that last ran between 24 and 61 days ago have 8 wins from 75 attempts.
Only 1 horse matches these criteria and that is WHZZ KID. The 7-year-old-gelding is ridden by 7lb claimer Luke Scott and is currently available at 28/1 * with several bookmakers who pay 6 places.
Further statistics that may prove relevant.
Those horses at the head of the betting have a poor record with only no forecast favourites winning and only 1 2nd favourite winning from 21 attempts.
All odds accurate at the time of writing, 12.01 pm 13th Jan
