Coral Gold Cup handicap chase – Key Betting Trends and Stats

This weekend’s big handicap is the Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Newbury. To us old timers this will always be known as the Hennessy, 1^st run in 1957. This premier handicap is run over 3 miles and 2 furlongs and is open to horses aged 4 or older. Off time is 3.05 and 16 go to post.

It is often a good guide for Cheltenham. Native River won this race in 2016 before going on to win that year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup. 4 other horses have been placed in this race before going on to win at the Cheltenham Festival.

Many Clouds won this in 2014 before going on to win that year’s Grand National.

Most bookmakers offer each-way terms of 5 places which makes the race an excellent betting proposition.

Trust the odds

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 seasons and these are my key conclusions.

1. The market is a good guide for this race. Horses at odds of more than 11/1 have a record of 1 win from 114 runners. Horses shorter than this have 8 wins from 55 runners. 
2. It is better to have experience prior to this race. Horses that have had less than 15 runs have a record of 3 wins from 94 runners compared to 6 wins from 75 runners for their more experienced rivals.
3. Horses that finished in the 1^st 3 last time have a success rate of 7 from 90. Those that finished further down the field have only won 2 from 79 efforts.

This reduces the field to 5, LE MILOS (8/1), BUSSELTON (17/2), FIDDLERONTHEROOF (9/1), REMASTERED (8/1) and OUR POWER (12/1).  

I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers who are offering 5 places.

For those who wish to narrow the field down further there are some other statistics that may prove relevant.

Horses carrying more than 11st 6lbs have a record of 0 wins from 31 attempts. This would rule out FIDDLERONTHEROOF, who carries 11st 9lbs.

A decent rest is desirable. Horses returning within 25 days of their last run have not won any of their 36 attempts. BUSSELTON last ran 66 days ago, OUR POWER 28 days ago.

Favourites have a good record with 3 winners from 8 runners.  

Horses bred in Ireland have the best record with 6 from 98 runners. FIDDLERONTHEROOF and OUR POWER are bred in Ireland.