Commonwealth Cup Tips – Royal Ascot Day Four, 15:05

The Commonwealth Cup was created in 2015 to give the 3yos a Group 1 sprint at the meeting and the race has been a superb addition to the card. It hasn’t been a race for shocks as only 2 horses have won at double-figure odds and they were on 10/1 and 12/1. Only 2 double-figure draws have won the race as well. Let’s take a look at the runners in contention for this race where you can also find my expert Royal Ascot tips below.

Little Big Bear

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore

Landed the Windsor Castle at the meeting last year and was a well-backed favourite as well. He then went on to win the Anglesey Stakes at the Curragh and then back there he took the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes in really impressive fashion. He looked like a horse all about speed, but connections decided to try and turn him into a Guineas horse, but that did go to plan and everything went wrong in the race including the fact he finished lame.

He was then dropped back down to 6f in the Sandy Lane and he could hardly have been more impressive. There was a bias that day on the rail, but Bradsell was close to the rail as well and he finished 9L behind him in 3rd and given what he did on Tuesday that form could hardly be any stronger. Going to be very hard to beat.

Marbaan

Trainer: Charlie Fellowes
Jockey: Jamie Spencer

Won the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last year, but struggled in G1 company after that. Only 4th in the trial for this last month and then 2nd in a Listed Race at Salisbury. This will be tougher.

Mischief Magic

Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: William Buick

Ran a shocker in the trial for this on his seasonal return. but did beat Dramatised in the Breeders’ Cup on his last start last season. Big player on that form, but we don’t know if he has trained on it or not. Tongue tie applied for the first time.

Noble Style

Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: James Doyle

6th in the 2000 Guineas having won the Gimcrack at York last season. Dropped back down to sprinting in a Listed Race at Newbury last time and was only 3rd at 8/11. That was disappointing, but player if he bounces back to form.

Rumstar

Trainer: Jonathan Portman
Jockey: Rob Hornby

Towards the bottom of these on ratings and has a stiff task on form.

Sakheer

Trainer: Roger Varian
Jockey: David Egan

Looked very good in 3 starts at 2 which ended up seeing him win the Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury in taking style. Connections took their chance in the Guineas and he looked a non-stayer when finishing in 7th so it is no surprise to see him drop back down in trip to 6f. One of the possible winners.

Shaquille

Trainer: Julie Camacho
Jockey: Oisin Murphy

Didn’t achieve as much as some of these at 2, but did win a couple of novice races at York and Wolverhampton and he has a really progressive profile. Looked good when winning a Newmarket handicap last month beating Washington Heights who has done well since. He then went to Newbury and had a couple of these in behind to win the Carnarvon Stakes in good style. This is tougher, but if he continues to progress then he isn’t out of this.

Shouldvebeenaring

Trainer: Richard Hannon
Jockey: Sean Leavy

Was the one who chased home Little Big Bear at Haydock and can’t see him reversing the form.

The X O

Trainer: John Ryan
Jockey: Robert Havlin

Looks to have it all to do to be competitive here.

Lezoo

Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Jockey: Frankie Dettori

Had a superb 2yo campaign and ended up winning the G1 Cheveley Park at Newmarket racecourse last September. She looked more of a sprinter than a miler and so it appeared when a well beaten 8th in 1000 Guineas. The soft ground would have been against her as well so the return to quick ground should be ideal and she has solid claims.

Ocean Guest

Trainer: Jessica Harrington
Jockey: Colin Keane

Looks to be progressing nicely and did well to just be beaten in a G3 at Naas last time given she had a poor draw. Needs to step up again, but could well do so.

Queen Me

Trainer: Kevin Ryan
Jockey: Jim Crowley

Non-stayer in the 1000 Guineas, but she didn’t achieve as much as some of these at 2 and needs to improve.

Swingalong

Trainer: Karl Burke
Jockey: Clifford Lee

Finished last in the French 1000 Guineas and was beaten by Lezoo last season so has a bit to prove.

Commonwealth Cup Betting Tips

This race is all about Little Big Bear for me. Connections think he is top notch and he looked destined for bigger things when sprinting last season. He proved the Guineas run all wrong with the impressive success at Haydock. He will be the only bet I will be having in the race. I think Lezoo can chase him home as the drop back to 6f is ideal for her and I think Shaquille can continue his progression to finish in 3rd.

1st Little Big Bear @ Evens with Bet365 bonus code

2nd Lezoo @ 9/1 with Bet365

3rd Shaquille @10/1 with Bet365

All odds are accurate at the time of writing.