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Day 1 of the Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival is being hosted at the Royal Randwick racecourse for The Star Doncaster Mile. Punters Lounge’s writer Darran Pearce shares his horse racing tips on the 1600m race at 16:35.
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Alligator Blood
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Jockey: Tim Clark
Winning this off top weight will be tough, but he does deserve top weight as he is a very good WFA horse. Was 5th in the Cox Plate and then went on to win a G1 over this trip at the Melbourne Cup Carnival at Flemington. Started off this prep by winning a G1 at Sandown over 1400m and then ran a solid race in the All Star Mile last time. Sure to run his race, but it could be the weight that stops him.
Mr Brightside
Trainer: Ben & JD Hayes
Jockey: Zac Purton
Has plenty of form with Alligator Blood and finished behind him in the Cox Plate and then at Flemington. Was 2nd to him at Sandown, but then got the better of him when taking out the All Star Mile last time. Was the winner of this race last year when rated 102 and is now up to 114, but clearly comes into this in good form.
My Oberon
Trainer: Annabel Neasham
Jockey: John Allen
Ex William Haggas and made a winning start in Australia when winning a G2 at Moonee Valley in October. He’s not been as good since although has had excuses both starts this prep having bleed 1st up and then had to make his run very wide in the All Star Mile last time and ended up only beating one home. Think he is better than he has shown, but at the same time hard to want to back him.
Fangirl
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Joao Moreira
Looks one of the leading chances here as been in very good form this prep. She ended last prep with a fast finishing 2nd in the Golden Eagle and this time around she has been behind Anamoe each time which is no disgrace given how good he is. She was 3rd 1st up and then 2nd in the last twice both at G1 level. The only real concern about her chances is the poor draw in 19.
Going Global
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Arenton Avdulla
A fascinating contender making his first start for Chris Waller having been in America before. He was going off odds on in the betting regularly in the States so clearly he was mainly outclassing some weak opposition on firm ground. I think the safest option with him is to wait to see how he gets on before backing him.
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Converge
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Jockey: Brett Prebble
Was 3rd in the George Ryder last time, 1 place behind Fangirl. He did get the run of the race that day though, but it was certainly a return to form and if he can back that up then he is a player from a decent draw.
Duke De Sessa
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Jockey: Dylan Gibbons
Makes his Australian debut for Maher & Eustace having been trained by Dermot Weld in Ireland. Finished 5th in last year’s Irish 2000 Guineas but improved for going up in trip winning a G3 at Leopardstown in September over 1m4f and winning a Listed Race at Naas in November. If it chucked it down and ended up being testing I would give him a chance, but if that doesn’t happen I think he might struggle dropping down to a mile on a decent surface.
Gentleman Roy
Trainer: Ben & JD Hayes
Jockey: Rachel King
Like to be the front runner in this and is a solid horse, but was only 7th in the All Star mile last time and I suspect he will be a sitting duck for those in behind.
Lion’s Roar
Trainer: John O’Shea
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Won the Randwick Guineas 2 years ago and ran very well in a G2 over course and distance in December. Not so good in two runs since and I suspect he will struggle here.
Nugget
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Jockey: Andrew Gibbons
1/1 over course and distance although that came in a BM88 in December. Did follow that up with a Listed win on Boxing Day at Sandown and has run well enough in defeat since then including when 5th in the All Star Mile last time. Can go well, but would be a bit of a surprise winner.
Bandersnatch
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes
Jockey: Taylor Marshall
Won the Doncaster Prelude at Rosehill last weekend, but no horse has done the double and he is unproven at G1 level so as impressive as he was I am happy to look over him from a betting perspective.
Golden Mile
Trainer: James Cummings
Jockey: Zac Lloyd
2/2 over 1600m having won the Caulfield Guineas in October and following that up with a course and distance win in a G2. Returned in good form running decent races the first twice, but then was slow away in the George Ryder last time and then he over raced so he gave himself no chance at all. Clearly if he does the same here he wont be winning, but given how much he thrives over 1600m I give him a chance here.
Mustang Valley
Trainer: Andrew Forsman
Jockey: Robbie Dolan
Trained in New Zealand and won a G1 over there in October. That was over 2040m though and I think he might be better over further and on testing ground.
Hope In Your Heart
Trainer: Kerry Parker
Jockey: Jay Ford
Was a staying on 4th in the Golden Eagle back in October and followed that up with a good 2nd at Kembla Grange. Returned this prep to win a G2 over 1400m here and then was 4th in a G1 over 1500 at Rosehill last time. Found herself too far back in that race and stayed on well for 4th. This looks her trip and if the ground is in the Soft range she isn’t out of this.
Zougotcha
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Waller and McEvoy team up her with a filly who has won 5 of her 8 starts. Is 1/1 at this trip having won a G1 over course and distance in October. Has returned in good form as well having finished 4th 1st up and then won the G2 Phar Lap over 1500 at Rosehill. Looked very good that day and given she wont care what the weather does I think she has a good chance of going close.
Protagonist
Trainer: William Haggas
Jockey: Ben Thompson
William Haggas knows exactly the right horse to send Down Under and this horse was another winner for him last time in a G3 over 2000 at Rosehill. Won a good handicap off 90 at Sandown back in Auguest before finishing 10th in the Cambridgeshire. The 2nd to Algiers on his final UK start a York in October is looking a decent piece of form and I liked the way he won last time. I guess the concern is dropping down to 100m, but you have to trust the trainer and he looks a big player.
Cepheus
Trainer: Matthew Dunn
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Run well in Brisbane in handicaps and then won a G2 over 1500m at Rosehill 3 weeks ago, but did get an easy lead in a race where there was no front runner on paper. Suspect this will be too tough for him.
Communist
Trainer: Michael Freedman
Jockey: Tyler Schiller
Was the winner of the Randwick Guineas a month ago and ran well enough in the George Ryder last time although that does suggest he has a little to find to win this.
Lindermann
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Dean Holland
Was 2nd to Communist in the Randwick Guineas and then won the Rosehill Guineas which is over 2000m. Clearly fairly evenly matched with Communist so also has a little to find for me.
Osipenko
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Michael Dee
The 1st emergancy, but gets a run due to a non-runner. Won a G2 at Rosehill over 1400m in Feburary and then had a little setback before running in the George Ryder where he finished 7th. He just faded out of it late on so if it was a case of, he had missed a bit of work which left him short he should come on for that so you couldn’t rule him out off a very low weight.
The Star Doncaster Mile Tips
A wider open affair as you would expect so I am going to take 3 against the field. As much as I am slightly concerned about the trip for Protagonist, clearly his trainer isn’t so that gives me confidence. There should be plenty of pace on here so that should make it more of a test as well which will help him. Zougotcha has plenty going for her and I think she looks the main danger and Golden Mile would be shorter in the betting if he hadn’t been disappointing last time. If he starts better and doesn’t over race here then I can see him running a big race at decent odds. Clearly Mr Brightside and Alligator Blood have the ability to run big races, but they do have plenty of weight and the draw is a concern for Fangirl.
Protagonist e/w at 10/1 with Unibet (4 places which is an enhancement as it is only 3 places in Australia)
Zougotcha e/w at 17/2 with Unibet
Golden Mile e/w at 16/1 with Unibet
All odds accurate at time of writing
