2000 Guineas Tips, Trends & Analysis (06/05/23) – O’Brien can scoop his 11th 2000 Guineas

The 2000 Guineas is run over the straight mile of the Rowley Mile course at Newmarket and is the first classic of the season and also the first leg of the Triple Crown (followed by The Derby and St Leger). Aidan O’Brien has won the race a record ten times and saddles the front two in the market this afternoon. Godolphin took the prize last year with a one – two and they also have a brace entered.

Here are my free horse racing tips on this year’s 2000 Guineas which is set to take place at 16:40.

2000 Guineas Tips, Trends & Analysis (06/05/23) – Newmarket 16:40

Auguste Rodin

Trainer: A P O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore

A warm favourite who’s been steadily backed throughout the week. A top two year old last year winning three of his four starts (was an unlucky loser on debut). Progressing through an odds on winner of a Naas maiden to Group 2 and Group 1 victories on soft ground. The latter win came in the Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster by 3 1/2L from subsequent Epsom Trial winner Epictetus. Looks a true stayer who will stay the Derby trip and can go well as long as he doesn’t find this trip of a mile on the short side especially were the ground to dry up.

Chaldean

Trainer: Andrew Balding
Jockey: Frankie Dettori

The second top rated horse in the line up, this Juddmonte owned Frankel colt bids to give Frankie Dettori a classic in his final year riding and his fourth 2000 Guineas throughout his illustrious career. A smart juvenile who won 4 of his 5 starts culminating in a Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes victory here in October over 7F from the re-opposing Royal Scotsman.

His re-appearance in the Greenham at Newbury a fortnight ago was a non event when the horse was bumped into on leaving the stalls dis-lodging Dettori. He ran the race without a jockey finishing just behind the eventual winner Isaac Shelby. A far from ideal prep for today but on his two year old form looks to hold a strong chance.

Charyn

Trainer: Roger Varian
Jockey: Tom Marquand

One of two Roger Varian trained runners in the field. A Group 2 Chantilly winner last year over 6F in the mud he ran a fine race on his re-appearance in the Greenham at Newbury when finishing runner up (beaten 3L) by Isaac Shelby. Speedy type who is not guaranteed to see out the extra furlong today and trainer has bigger hopes with Sakheer.

Dubai Mile

Trainer: Charlie Johnstone
Jockey: Daniel Muscutt

Progressive as a juvenile winning at Windsor and Kempton in novice company prior to stepping up a grade when runner up to The Foxes in the Royal Lodge over a mile here and then putting up a career best when beating John and Thady Gosden’s Arrest in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint Cloud in October by a head. That was over 10F and I’m not sure if dropping back to a mile is going to suit this son of Roaring Lion.

Flight Plan

Trainer: Karl Burke
Jockey: Daniel Tudhope

One of three runners in the race for Northern trainer Karl Burke. Takes a big step up in class here having won a novice stakes at Newcastle last November and just been run out of it close home at the same track in April in a one mile listed contest. Hard to fancy on the form book but his trainer was sounding positive about his place chances earlier in the week.

Galeron

Trainer: Charlie Hills
Jockey: Kieran Shoemark

Finished 2 1/4L behind Flight Plan in listed company at Newcastle on All-Weather Championships day in April. Hard to fancy on all known form and is official rated 27lb behind the top rated Little Big Bear here. Would be a major shock were he to win.

Hi Royal

Trainer: Kevin Ryan
Jockey: Oisin Murphy

Another taking a massive step up in grade. A winner of a novice stakes at Ayr last September he started this campaign with a 2 1/4L 4th to Majestic Pride over 7F at the Craven meeting and hard to give this Northern raider any chance.

Holloway Boy

Trainer: Karl Burke
Jockey: Christophe Soumillon

A 40/1 winner at Royal Ascot in the Chesham Stakes on his career debut last June and proved that no fluke by being placed in group company four times afterwards. Most recently when 5 1/4L third to today’s favourite Auguste Rodin in the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster in October. Not seen since but capable of running well fresh and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him run well.

Indestructible

Trainer: Karl Burke
Jockey: Kevin Stott

Was a smart two year when trained in Ireland by Michael O’Callaghan finishing runner up to Chaldean twice, by 1/2L at York in the Acomb Stakes and by 3 1/2L in the Champagne Stakes the following month at Doncaster. Took a keen hold on re-appearance when pulling himself into the lead but keeping on well to beat The Foxes in the Craven Stakes. Seems a big price for a horse who’s won a respected trial and ran Chaldean so close last season.

Little Big Bear

Trainer: A P O’Brien
Jockey: Wayne Lordan

The highest rated in the field by 5lb and upwards. A very smart two year old last year winning four of his five starts including the listed Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot, Group 3 Anglesey Stakes and the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at The Curragh. Yet to race beyond 6F so definite doubts over whether he will stay a mile although there’s enough in his breeding (Dam is a daughter of 12F horse Bering and won over 10F herself) to suggest he will. Ryan Moore appears to favour Auguste Rodin but there may not be a great deal in it and can run well.

Noble Style

Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: James Doyle

One of two Charlie Appleby trained colts. Unbeaten as a two year old winning novice events at Ascot and Newmarket over 5F and 6F prior to to taking the Gimcrack Stakes at York over 6F in August. William Buick appears to have chosen Silver Knott over his stable mate and not certain to stay a mile as dam Eartha Kitt was a sprinter who won at 6F.

Royal Scotsman

Trainer: Paul & Oliver Cole
Jockey: Jim Crowley

Kept good company as a juvenile winning twice at Goodwood including the Group 2 Richmond Stakes before ending his campaign with an excellent head second to Chaldean in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes here over 7F. Extra furlong should suit and connections sounded quietly bullish earlier in the week.

Sakheer

Trainer: Roger Varian
Jockey: David Egan

Speedy two year old who followed up a very comfortable Haydock 6F win in September by running out a highly impressive 3 1/2L winner of the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury a fortnight later. Yet to race beyond 6F and had a racecourse spin recently with top sprinter Mitbaahy. Looks useful but a very big question mark over his ability to stay a mile.

Silver Knot

Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: William Buick

Smart two year old who steadily progressed through to winning the Group 3 Autumn Stakes over course and distance in October and went down by the narrowest of margins in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf at Keeneland. Worked well at this track during the Craven meeting and is apparently the pick of William Buick of the Godolphin pair .

Qipco 2000 Guineas Tips

The first colts classic of the 2023 turf season is as intriguing as ever. Aiden O’Brien sets a poser by saddling both last year’s top rated two year old Little Big Bear and the highly promising Auguste Rodin. Ryan Moore appears to have chosen the latter but it can’t have been an easy decision with his mount ideally needing further so any rain before race time would suit him. In contrast Little Big Bear who will be ridden by Wayne Lordan looks fast and has doubts about seeing out a mile although his breeding suggests he may well stay a mile.

Chaldean comes here as a smart juvenile who’s attempt at having a prep run ended in disaster with Frankie Dettori unseated at the stalls in the Greenham at Newbury a fortnight ago. He should be thereabouts and Dettori will be hoping for a classic win in his final year race riding.

Sakheer may well struggle staying the mile whilst the pick of the Godolphin pair may well be Silver Knott although he was behind Chaldean last year and his stable seem to be struggling for top form at the moment.

Royal Scotsman should not be overlooked either but I’ll take Little Big Bear to score for team Ballydoyle as he was the best of these as a juvenile and although there’s plenty of talk about him not staying his pedigree suggests otherwise.

LITTLE BIG BEAR 2 points each way @ 11/2 William Hill 1/5 1234

All odds are accurate at the time of writing

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