1000 Guineas Tips, Trends, & Analysis (07/05/23) –

The 1000 Guineas Stakes is a Group 1 flat horse race in Great Britain open to three-year-old fillies. It is run on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket racecourse over a distance of 1 mile on the Sunday following the 2000 Guineas Stakes.

It is the second of Britain’s five Classic races, and the first of two restricted to fillies. It can also serve as the opening leg of the Fillies’ Triple Crown, followed by the Oaks and the St Leger, but the feat of winning all three is rarely attempted.

In recent times Aidan O’Brien has farmed this race winning it five times since 2016 with the likes of Minding, Winter, Hermosa, Love and Mother Earth. Today he relies on another potentially smart filly in Meditate.

Below, I have highlighted all twenty participants scheduled to line up for this years’ exciting renewal and provided a brief assessment of their chances along with my own free horse racing tips at the end.

1000 Guineas Tips, Trends, & Analysis (07/05/23)

1. Caernarfon

Trainer: Jack Channon
Jockey: Connor Beasley

Improved with each start last year accumulating in listed race success at over this course and distance. Whilst this daughter of Cityscape is having her first run for fledgling trainer Jack Channon, she was previously trained by his father Mick. Connor Beasley is two from three on him but with a rating of just 99, he seems to have a lot of his plate to trouble the best of these. She wouldn’t mind any cut in the ground and may just be in need of this run back.

Predicted SP 50/1

2. Dance In The Grass

Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Jockey: Joe Fanning

Dance In The Grass was quick off the mark last season and notched up a couple of back to back wins at Sandown racecourse. She was sent off as a short priced favourite in the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster and fluffed her lines badly. She trailed in nine-lengths behind Polly Pott in the Group 2 contest. She was tried again at that level a couple of weeks later and again was beaten convincingly. Despite a winter break, this would take a career best and the mile may just stretch her.

Predicted SP: 66/1

3. Dream Of Love

Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: William Buick

Dream Of Love has something to find with Caernarfon based on their most recent meeting over this course and distance where she fared third best in the Montrose Fillies’ Stakes. Made a reappearance at Meydan a few months ago and was beaten a short head by Mawj over seven furlongs. A return to the mile trip should encourage further improvement from the daughter of Shamardal and there has been money floating around for her this week. You can never rule a Godolphin filly out of this classic and she could run a big race at her local track.

Predicted SP: 7/1

4. Embrace

Trainer: Oliver Burrows
Jockey: Daniel Muscutt

Embrace ran a fair race on what was her seasonal reappearance at Newbury just a couple of weeks ago in a Group 2 race behind the now unbeaten Remarquee. Whilst she is perfectly entitled to come on for the run, she now has a lot to find to trouble the best of these. She looks a Group 3 filly at best and may well struggle to land a blow here.

Predicted SP: 50/1

5. Fairy Cross

Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: James Doyle

Was beaten all too easily by Mawj in Meydan over this trip back in February and then found the re-opposing Mammas Girl too good over seven furlongs at here in the Nell Gwyn. Yet to fully prove she sees out the mile and looks the yards’ second string on jockey bookings. The form of that recent race is beginning to work out as Believing who finished fifth has come out to win a listed race at Chelmsford subsequently but that may be as high as level as this one reaches too.

Predicted SP 33/1

6. Karsavina

Trainer: Clive Cox
Jockey: Rossa Ryan

Karsavina won a novice race by the narrowest of margins on debut at Newmarket last October. She then made her seasonal reappearance in the Nell Gwyn finishing in behind the likes of Mammas Girl and Fairy Cross. A lot more needed to be found in order for her to figure here and no guarantees that she will see out the extra mile.

Predicted SP: 40/1

7. Lezoo

Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Jockey: Frankie Dettori

A multiple Group winning juvenile who landed both the Cheveley Park Stakes and the Keeneland Stakes last season. This is a marked step up in trip for the daughter of Zoustar, but if taking to it she has to have every chance. She is a genuine Group 1 filly and she is likely to have strengthened up over the winter. Is drawn right against the rail and likely not be seen until the closing stages. Frankie Dettori knows her well and the pair cannot be left out of the equation.

Predicted SP: 14/1

8. Mammas Girl

Trainer: Richard Hannon
Jockey: Kevin Stott

Comes into this race on the back of two wins. She clearly likes this track having proven herself on it in those two wins albeit over seven furlongs. She already has a beating of a number of these including the likes of Sweet Harmony, Karsavina and Fairy Cross. Richard Hannon is well renowned for his ability to handle precocious fillies. They won this race with Billesdon Brook in 2018 and provided her draw is not an inconvenience, should go close to repeating the dose here.

Predicted SP: 5/1

9. Matilda Picotte

Trainer: Kevin Cotter
Jockey: Ronan Whelan

Needs to step up on all known form to get involved here. She has been beaten on multiple occasions by multiple re-opposing rivals so Kevin Cotter will need to literally work the oracle. She did win a listed race over six furlongs here when beating Queen Olly back in October. That form should be nowhere near good enough and this race should be way outside her comfort zone.

Predicted SP: 40/1

10. Mawj

Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor
Jockey: Oisin Murphy

Mawj has thrived out in Dubai over the winter and won back-to-back races seeing off fellow Godolphin owned re-opposing rivals Dream Of Love and Fairy Cross. She has proven herself over this mile already this year and with Oisin Murphy booked to ride, a major run can be expected. Any further drying out of the ground would certainly help this Exceed And Excel filly and she has to be rated as a likely danger to all.

Predicted SP: 12/1

11. Meditate

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore

Meditate brings some of the best form to the table and with her yard having such an excellent record in this race, she is one to write off at your own peril. Whilst the grey daughter of No Nay Never is making her first racecourse appearance in over 180 days, she won multiple group races as a juvenile last season at varied tracks including Naas, Ascot and The Curragh. She then went on to deliver a power packed finish under Ryan Moore in the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf at Keeneland in the Breeders Cup. A star in the making and could well sweep this field aside if ready for her first run back.

Predicted SP: 7/2

12. Naomi Lapaglia

Trainer: Richard Spencer
Jockey: Kieran Shoemark

Has a perfect record being one win from just one start. To put things into context, her sole success came in a novices’ race at Kempton last November. The form of the race has been franked by the tenth placed Lunar Bird, but that was only in a class four event. This form needs to be improved upon substantially if she is to make an impact here. She is proven over the mile, but possibly needs even further now. This looks a step too far.

Predicted SP: 33/1

13. Olivia Maralda

Trainer: Roger Varian
Jockey: David Egan

Unless she improves significantly for the change of yards. She won a maiden race at Newbury when trained by Michael O’Callaghan. She was then tried at Group 2 twice in the Debutante Stakes and then the Rockfel. She was out of her depth then and should remain so now. She could improve for the step up to a mile, but unlikely to give her rivals too many sleepless nights.

Predicted SP: 66/1

14. Polly Pott

Trainer: Ben Pauling
Jockey: Jim Crowley

Made a successful step up into Group company when landing the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster last September for Harry Dunlop. Now has his first ever run for Ben Pauling who is more synonymous with his runners over the jumps than on the flat. The booking of former Champion jockey Jim Crowley catches the eye and not impossible that they could hit the frame. A mile seems a minimum for this daughter of Muhaarar so if fully wound up, she could well surprise a few.

Predicted SP: 66/1

15. Powerdress

Trainer: Richard Hannon
Jockey: Sean Levey

Won here over the minimum trip of five furlongs on debut last April. Was put away for a year by her shrewd handler and made her seasonal reappearance again at this track in a conditions race last month. In fairness to her she was completely disregarded in the market and managed to hit the frame at a double figure price. This is a different kind of test altogether and she is most definitely the yards’ second string. She may well be used as a pace maker for Mammas Girl and when her task is done, she may just fade in the wake of far superior rivals.

Predicted SP: 33/1

16. Queen Me

Trainer: Kevin Ryan
Jockey: Mikael Barzalona

This daughter of Dubawi was a winner on debut over six furlongs at Haydock last season. She acquitted herself well when raised in grade to Group 2 company in the Lowther Stakes at York over the same trip and was again placed in a Group 3 race at Ayr back in September. Has not been to the track since and interesting that connections have opted to try her over this mile. Others appear to have far stronger credentials today though and she will likely come on for this run.

17. Remarquee

Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Jockey: Rob Hornby

An exciting filly by Kingman who is undefeated in two career starts. She landed her maiden at Salisbury in good style when beating Bresson and then followed that up with a win in the Fred Darling Group 3 at Newbury. She should be able to confirm the form with Stenton Glider on the ame terms and now that she is also fully fit. Rob Hornby maintains the ride and the duo should put together a big run.

Predicted SP: 8/1

18. Stenton Glider

Trainer: Hugo Palmer
Jockey: Tom Marquand

Stenton Glider was somewhat of a surprise winner on her debut run last year when winning at Chester. Upped in grade on her seasonal reappearance this year, she gave Remarquee a scare when almost getting the better of her in the Fred Darling. She is fully expected to improve again for the run but with the run coming so quickly, it cannot be guaranteed. She will need to take another step forward to get involved.

Predicted SP: 25/1

19. Sweet Harmony

Trainer: Richard Spencer
Jockey: Billy Loughnane

Looks to have it all to do in order to get involved here. Has been found out in lesser company on multiple occasions since winning a Yarmouth maiden last summer. Much more on her plate today and even with the assistance of the up and coming jockey in her saddle, the pair are likely to struggle once more.

Predicted SP: 66/1

20. Tahiyra

Trainer: Dermot Weld
Jockey: Chris Hayes

Was mightily impressive when winning on her debut at Galway by just under six lengths. Dermot Weld clearly liked what he saw and entered her for the Moyglare at The Curragh a couple of months later. She readily saw off the attentions of the re-opposing Meditate and brings the best form to the table, given that the form has been franked in no uncertain terms subsequently. The yard are a bit quiet and have not had a winner in two months. That has to be a concern although he class may just pull her through.

Predicted SP: 5/2

1000 Guineas Tips

Favourites have an abysmal record in this race and it has been seven years since Minding justified her short price. With the clouds looming over the Dermot Weld yard at present it is hard to recommend Tahiyra. If the rain stays away, the horse I like is Mawj, as he has already seen off his fellow Godolphin team-mates this season. He looks primed to run a huge race under Oisin Murphy and whilst Saeed Bin Suroor doesn’t train as many as he used to, this filly is clearly one of his best. She had a thoroughly successful spell in Meydan and should be fit enough to do herself justice.

Predicted Finishing Order

1. MAWJ (E/W)
2. MEDITATE
3. TAHIYRA
4. LEZOO

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