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Punchestown  4.15             Hardwired   33/1  EW               b365

I think a lot of favourites might win. But I'm trying these ones...

16.00  Musselburgh  Giorgio M (2/1 Bet 365)

22 minutes ago, Darran said:

I've covered every horse running at Cheltenham and the leading contenders in the big race at Punchestown. The going is now soft at Cheltenham after they watered and then it rained. All prices are from around 9am this morning 

 

4.35

Caryto Des Brosses 1pt @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 7/4)

Missed Tee 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 6/1)

5.10
Iskandar Pecos 3pts @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 5/4)

5.45

What A Glance 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with most bookies (Paddy Power and Betfair are 16/1 and take up to 8/1)

Yippee Ki Yay 0.5pts @ 3/1 with most bookies (10/3 with 365 and Hills and take up to 5/2)

Haven't Time 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes (365 are 8/1 and take up to 5/1)

6.20

Deise Aba 2pts @ 11/2 with most bookies (6/1 with Hills and take up to 7/2)

Fairly Famous 1.5pts @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 7/2)

Quintin's Man 0.5pts @ 13/2 with most bookies (7s with 365 and Hills and take up to 5/1)

6.55

No bet

7.30
Master Templar 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (13/2 with William Hill and take up to 4/1)

Gaboriot 1.5pts @ 100/30 with William Hill (7/2 with BetVictor and Betfred and take up to 5/2)

D'Jango 0.5pts e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365 to 4 places (take up to 6/1)

8.05
Rebel Dawn Rising 3pts @ 7/4 with Skybet and BetVictor (15/8 with Hills and take up to 5/4)

 

Punchestown
Its On The Line 2.5pts @ 7/4 with Bet365 (take up to 5/4)

Ferns Lock 0.5pts @ 9/1 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 6/1

 

4.35

Caryto Des Brosses - Probably not quite as good as he once was which is no surprise given he is now 12. Was a solid 2^nd in this race last year to Fier Jaguen and on these terms he could reverse that form. Ran against him on his seasonal debut at Garthorpe when he was 11L behind him this time, but he always needs his first run of the season. Was 2^nd again over 2m4f at Kimble to Lift Me Up who had also beaten him at Newbury last season. That was another solid performance and he was back to winning ways at Garthorpe 2 weeks ago. Nearly always runs his race and should go close.

 

Fier Jaguen - You may remember that I was a huge fan of this horse last season and put him up as a strong bet at Aintree, but his right handed jumping got in the way and he unseated Bradley. He then went to this race and I put him up as a max bet and whilst things are never going to be easy because of his right handed jumping he was always holding Caryto Des Brosses to have a fairly comfortable success. He won his first two races this season, but I was not impressed with him at all at Didmarton and I didn't think he was in as good form as he was last year. I was going to oppose him if he went to Aintree, but he was taken out at the 6 day stage and instead he went to High Easter where he was sent off 2/5 to beat Law Of Gold. He made the running as usual and jumped out to his right as usual, but looked the winner for most of the way and it was only in the closing stages that Law Of Gold got the better of him. There is no real disgrace by that though because he is a top class pointer/hunter chaser himself and it was probably his best run of the season. Still not sure he's quite in the same form as last year and obviously he is going to jump out to his right, but he still could win.

 

A Jet Of Our Own - Ridden by the owners son who has only had two rides under rules before both over hurdles. It took the horse a while to get his head in front, but once he won at Maisemore last March and then went onto land a hat-trick. He won those 3 races by 25L, 40L and 50L. He's had a solid season this time around winning 2 of his 6 races including at Chaddesley Corbett a couple of weeks ago. That was a decent effort and saw his point rating go up 6lbs. He has been a beaten favourite twice this season though. He has led, as he did last time, but he has also been held up so hard to know what to expect on that front. The jockey's inexperience is going to be an issue and his form isn't yet at the level of Fier Jaguen or Caryto Des Brosses, but he might be capable of a top 3 finish.

 

Bigforyourboots - Must admit I can't quite understand why he's running in this. He ran in a bumper at Doncaster in January and was always well behind. He then ran in 2 points finishing 6^th and then he pulled up on Easter Monday. He is trained by former jockey Luca Morgan and he's been ridden by good jockeys in both point starts and did go off 3/1 fav in the first of them. He hasn't looked to stay 2m4f in the two point runs so 2m out to suit, but I don't see how he can get anywhere near the best horses in this.

 

Fine Investment - Was 2^nd to Exeter bumper winner Prophesea at Flete Park a couple of weeks ago who was following up the Exeter win at Flete Park. Fine Investment was in front until the final 50 yards so it was a decent effort. The 3^rd at Leicester behind Iskandar Pecos the time before hinted at a little promise as well, but 2m on better ground didn't look to be what he needs.

 

Funky Sensation - I thought he ran a really good race in the final race on this card a year ago when he led and ended up being only beaten 12.5L by Paloma Blue. That was a strong race and he clearly has ability. His 2 hunter chase runs this season weren't bad either although he was a strange gamble at Exeter last time given he's never looked like he stays 3m and again he failed to stay when finishing 4th. 2m round here should be ideal for him although if they want to front run on him he is going to be doing well to be in front of Fier Jaguen, but given the run he put in on this card last year I wouldn't be surprised if he outran his odds.

 

Rewritetherules - Has sometimes run well in hunter chases, but the jockey switch didn't help him at all at Kempton last time and he pulled up in this race last year so hard to see him getting involved.

 

Whatchagotder - Luca Morgan also trains this one and again its hard to give him much of a chance as he is still a maiden after 7 starts here and in Ireland.

 

Missed Tee - Was well backed ahead of her hunter chase debut, but was very keen and didn't see it out in testing ground over 2m5f at Stratford. 10 days later she went to Ludlow and she was really keen again although it probably didn't help her that she was taken on for the lead as it probably made her go even quicker. There was the odd mistake, but nothing as bad as at Stratford or her last start for the Skelton's at Ludlow and I certainly saw more promise here than I did at Stratford. I actually thought she might have dropped out when the 2^nd tried to go on leaving the back, but she didn't and it was only after the last where she really weakened. 2m round here on good ground could be exactly what she needs, but the presence of Fier Jaguen might not help her.

 

Verdict - This race was very easy for me last year as I couldn't see Fier Jaguen getting beat, but I just don't think he's in quite the same form as last season. The yard have been much quieter this season compared to last season which might have something to do with it. Yes he has been winning, but he hasn't been as impressive and whereas he got away with some massively right-handed jumping last year I'm not sure he will this time around. Maybe after the race I will regret not sticking with him at odds against, but we shall see. It will be interesting what happens up front as well and the race could set up nicely for Caryto Des Brosses to close from behind and pick up the pieces of the strong pace. Missed Tee looks like dropping back to this trip is what she needs and she gets 15lbs from Fier Jaguen and she is worth backing e/w with 3 places on offer. I'd love to include Funky Sensation somehow because this trip is what he needs as well, but even so he's still going to find it hard to win. 

 

Caryto Des Brosses 1pt @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 7/4)

Missed Tee 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 6/1)

 

5.10

Another Furlough - He has looked very progressive this season as he has won 3 out of his 4 starts. The one time he got beat he was a 4L 3^rd to Yippee Ki Yay which does give us a hunter chase reference to work on. The form comment said that he was given too much to do and having watched the race I would agree with that. He is always held up in his races, but his jockey overdid the tactics that day and as it turns out he was trying to catch a decent horse. The other issue is that is a right handed track and he jumps to his left so he was forfeiting a fair bit of ground at each fence. He has jumped left handed at left handed tracks as well although of course it is more helpful at those venues. He clocked a decent time when he won in February and then he beat Duc De Bourbon the following month and was value for more than the 4L margin as he was eased down. He looks promising.

 

Coolagh Park - Was only a length 2^nd to Iskandar Pecos at Horseheath on New Years Eve which would give him a chance, but fair to say that one has improved massively since and he's been beaten twice and then won at 4/11 in between. So overall he has a bit too find.

 

Iskandar Pecos - Has improved massively over the season as often happens with horses from this yard and went very close to winning the Walrus at Haydock in February. 10 days later he had a very easy task at Leicester and then should have had a fairly easy task at Ludlow. However it didn't turn out like that as it needed the ride of the season from Huw to get him home and beat Before Midnight on the run-in. He raced very lazily and didn't jump that well either. Before Midnight set quite a decent pace and I think he was just struggling to keep up over that trip. 3m2f round Cheltenham is obviously a new test, but he sets a clear standard on form.

 

Latenightrumble - 2019 the winner was Latenightpass, 2022 the winner was Latenightfumble so will we see the hat-trick of relations win this race? Well he certainly has a chance. He was set to win on his seasonal return when he unseated at the last. He then won easily the following month although he beat Red Opium who was only 4^th at Kelso last month so it isn't strong form. He then ran way below par when 4^th at 4/5 before winning on Easter Monday at 1/4. Fair to say he hasn't achieved as strong form as a few of these, but it would be daft to write him off.

 

Minella Job - Been stuffed twice by Another Furlough so that along with his 3^rd at Exeter a couple of weeks ago suggest he will struggle here.

 

Olly Norse - 2^nd to Deise Aba on his return on New Years Eve wasn't a bad effort and then he was 2^nd again 11L behind Paper Mill at Garthorpe. That suggests he is going to struggle here.

 

Padjoes Legacy - I wouldn't read anything into the fact that Gina rides him and not their horse as Jack always rides Latenightrumble. Was struggling earlier in the season, but things clicked at Kimble on Easter Saturday when winning in a decent time. He won again a couple of weeks later although it was only a match. I'd be a bit surprised if he was good enough.

 

Paper Mill - Easily beat Olly Norse at Garthorpe on his last start in February and he still looked green after he went clear suggesting there is more to come. His jumping wasn't always foot perfect which would be a small concern here. That was his 2^nd win of the season after he won his only other start in January. I certainly wouldn't under estimate his chances, but I just wonder if he's going to be streetwise enough to win this.

 

Wolf Walker - Didn't really show a great deal in 3 Irish starts last year, but he has looked a really promising horse since coming over to Britain to be trained by Chris Barber. Given the 1^st win on New Yeas Eve came just over a month after the last Irish start it really has been a swift transformation. He still looked a bit green when winning his maiden by 20L, but he looked very streetwise in his other two wins. He beat Douglas Longbottom by 4L in the first of them and whilst I know that horse disappointed at Chepstow on Friday he is much better than he showed that night. He also beat another horse who ran in the Dunraven Bowl last week in the shape of Red Nika and he hammered him by 18L For a 5yo he is a superb jumper and if he brings the jumping ability he has shown in points to Cheltenham then that is going to be a very useful tool. All 3 runs have been at Larkhill so this is a bit of a different test and he has 2 furlongs further to go, but he looks very promising.

 

Verdict - A smaller field than usual, but still an interesting race. My initial thinking was that Iskandar Pecos would be a short price favourite and there might be some value in taking him on especially with Wolf Walker who has really impressed. The early market moves though has meant that Wolf Walker is shorter than he ought to be and Iskandar Pecos bigger than he ought to be so he has to be the bet. Confidence is high and this has been the long term target for him. The 5/4 mark he was put in was the right sort of price for me so he has to be the bet at the current prices. Wolf Walker could be very good, but he has to prove it under rules and whilst at the initial 4/1 that was factored into the price I can't say it is anymore so happy to leave him alone now. I respect Latenightrumble and Paper Mill can outrun his odds, but Another Furlough was the other one that interested me and he is a danger as well.

 

Iskandar Pecos 3pts @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 5/4)

 

5.45

Cooler Than Me - Won a match last April and did finish 2^nd in the Exeter point to point bumper prior to that. This looks a big ask though.

 

Earl Of Desmond - On his 2^nd to Its On The Line at Cork in April 22 he would have a massive chance, but on his pulled up effort on stable debut at Exeter behind Yippee Ki Yay he would have no chance. What is interesting was he was being very well backed at big prices prior to being a non runner at Stratford a couple of weeks ago. Henry Oliver has previous in landing a gamble in this sphere so he's one to be wary of.

 

Fil d'Ariane - Ran a couple of cracking races in the Military races at Sandown where he didn't really seem to quite stay. I thought the drop down in trip would suit at Stratford, but whilst he was able to get a fairly easy lead, he couldn't get well clear of the field and he dropped out quite easily in the end. He clearly has ability, but this is even further than the Sandown races and whilst the ground wont be quite as testing I find it hard to see him staying.

 

Haven't Time - Was running a very promising race on hunter chase debut at Ludlow in January 22 until falling at the last. He wasn't seen again for a year and he ran in 3 hurdle races with little promise. He then returned to hunter chases and ran a perfectly respectable race when 5^th at Taunton and he followed that up by beating Polish at Southwell a couple of weeks later. He then went to Exeter and he looked to be in with a good chance of at least finishing 2^nd until he faded quite badly on the run-in and he ended up 3^rd with Yippee Ki Yay getting up for 2nd. I guess the issue is if he is going to stay this trip given how badly he tired at Exeter, but at least the ground will be much better than it was that day.

 

Jetaway Joey - Another horse who the Eillis' have got from Olly Murphy's yard and after being beaten on his first start for them last year he then went onto win his other 2. The form is solid enough as well because he beat Kaproyale in the first of them at Charing. This year he has only had one start and it was a match where he beat another good horse in Clara Sorrento, although the stables horses always come on for their first run so the form might be a little suspect. Stable won this race last year though and he has to be respected.

 

Jeux d'Eau - Has progressed massively as the season has progressed. He started off the year with a couple of 3rds, but then he landed 3 on the bounce. The middle win at Thorpe Lodge on Easter Monday was in a decent time, but what was especially eye-catching was his win last time which came in the Lady Dudley Cup at Chaddesley Corbett which is over 3m2f. It was a good performance as he travelled well throughout the race and kept going when asked for his effort down the home straight. It was a huge personal best and my thinking is it all depends on if he can repeat that performance 2 weeks later on his first start under rules. Looksnowtlikebrian was a 2L 2^nd and he was 3^rd in the Dunraven Bowl at Chepstow last Friday, but this is a better race than that.

 

Polish - Ran no sort of race on his hunter chase debut at Wincanton, but a month later he ran a much better race when finishing a close 2^nd to Haven't Time at Southwell. He helped make the running that day which was a change of tactics and that clearly suited him better than being held up at Wincanton. He's a solid horse, but he does find winning hard and whilst he has a chance I am happy enough to look elsewhere.

 

Terrierman - Pulled up at Stratford in March and has been well beaten in all 3 points this season.

 

What A Glance - Finished 2^nd on all 3 starts this season, but the last two have been behind Deise Aba at Lockinge and then at Stratford and I think both of those efforts were very good. At Stratford he looked like he would appreciate stepping back up in trip as he got outpaced that day and he looks to be one of the leading contenders.

 

Yippee Ki Yay - Was a winner back in January in a point which was a good effort and then ran terribly on his next start finishing last of 4 at odds on. To go from that to 9 days later hammering his rivals at Exeter was some feat especially as the 2^nd had shown very good form this season. It could be argued he was the only one to run his race, but in some ways he put in an even better effort 6 days later at the same venue. He didn't win, but he made a really bad mistake at the 9^th and stumbled badly on landing. It helped that there was a long gap between that and the next fence helped, but he crept back into the race. Whilst he had no chance catching the winner I thought he did very well to even finish 2^nd in the circumstances. Another with claims of winning this.

 

Verdict - This is usually a pretty poor race, but this year's renewal looks pretty strong with only a couple that you could completely rule out. The early moves were for Jetaway Joey and Jeux d'Eau, but they look short enough to me now. I think What A Glance is a huge price at double figure odds. Given I think Deise Aba has a big chance in the following race I think he has a really good chance of hitting the frame at least with this longer trip set to suit. I'm also going to cover Yippee Ki Yay as those two Exeter efforts look very good and Haven't Time who hopefully can see it out better on this better ground.

 

What A Glance 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with most bookies (Paddy Power and Betfair are 16/1 and take up to 8/1)

Yippee Ki Yay 0.5pts @ 3/1 with most bookies (10/3 with 365 and Hills and take up to 5/2)

Haven't Time 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes (365 are 8/1 and take up to 5/1)

 

6.20

 

Captain Tommy - Bizarrely struggled in 2 points this season and yet has won 2 hunter chases at Ludlow. Not sure he achieved a great deal in the first when only having to beat Shang Tang, but I thought he achieved more when beating Espior De Guye over 2m4f. His run at Aintree was decent enough as well finishing 9^th 38L behind the winner. Connections have been waiting for better ground so will be hoping the rain stays away. Not sure he's going to be quite up to winning this, but should run well.

 

Deise Aba - Has beaten What A Glance in his last two runs at Lockinge and Stratford so if he wins in the previous race that will be a big form boost. I thought he jumped really well at Stratford and he had more in hand than the winning margin suggests. The fact he won round there over just under 3m shows he still has a touch of class because that shouldn't be his ideal circumstances as he was a strong stayer under rules and his last good run was over the cross country course last January when just being beaten. I'd have been tempted to have run him in the 4m contest, but this test should really suit as well and crucially he wont care what the weather does.

 

Premier Magic - Bolted up in this race last year having of course won at The Festival the time before. That race was pretty weak last year though and Rebel Dawn Rising is a non stayer at this trip so I don't think he achieved a great deal. This season I had concerns about how good he still was as his two pointing wins told us nothing and he duly ended up pulling up at The Festival. He ran OK until he weakened after 3 out, but I think it adds to my theory that he isn't as good as he was last season. Clearly though that win last March is the best form in the race so a win wouldn't be a shock, but I'm happy to take him on.

 

Quintin's Man - Won the Intermediate Final on this card last year with ease and that plus his win at Wincanton and 3^rd in the Walrus made me think he had an outside squeak at The Festival. That didn't go well though as he ran no sort of race. I was surprised that Darren said the testing ground was to blame as he looked like a horse who needed testing ground to be at his best. I could forgive him that, but a couple of weeks ago he disappointed again at Flete Park when finishing 4^th over 4m. The biggest concern though is he flashed his tail when he started to be ridden after 3 out. He did bounce back from a couple of lesser runs at the start of the season to win at Wincanton and that was only 10 days after the latter of those efforts. If he does bounce back then he has a chance.

 

Encounter A Giant - Was a well beaten 5^th in this last year and can't see him doing any better in a stronger renewal.

 

Fairly Famous - Won the previous race on this card last year which is usually the weakest race on the card, but he clocked a good time in doing so and connections were talking him up as a Festival contender. The 2^nd at Horseheath on his return was a decent enough effort as he ran like he needed it, the big problem though was the Wetherby effort where he looked to hate the testing conditions and barely travelled at all. To be fair given Sine Nomine won even if had been better ground I doubt he would have beaten her. A month later he went back pointing and had a very easy task, but he won with ease. That was on soft ground and he clearly handles soft ground so if it does rain it shouldn't matter as it isn't going to be anything like Wetherby. This should be the race we find out how good he is.

 

Life Me Up - No doubt at least one of his owners will be watching from Miami where this weekend's F1 GP is taking place, but Mrs Horner might be at Cheltenham to watch her horse. He looked very promising last season when he won on hunter chase debut at Newbury, but he then ran poorly in the Intermediate Final when pulling up. This season he was a fair 2^nd on his return, but the Kimble effort where he beat Caryto Des Brosses was much more impressive albeit over 2m4f. This is the best race he's been in, but surely that ran here a year ago was too bad to be true and he is a player.

 

Definite Dilemma - Has no chance.

 

Ripper Roo - Another who should be outclassed.

 

Verdict - Really good race this and much more strength than last year. Premier Magic can win, but he is priced up purely on last seasons form and if you were basing it just on this seasons form then I'm not even sure you would make him favourite let alone the short price he is. Lift Me Up was put in at double figure odds which was too big, but even though last year's run was probably too bad to be true it still has to be factored in and he's the right price now. I'm going to have a tiny bet on Quitin's Man as I want him covered just in case he returns to form, but the two for me are Deise Aba and Fairly Famous. Deise Aba will hopefully get a form boost in the race prior and he looks to retain plenty of his old ability based on what he's been doing this season. Fairly Famous was so good last year that I want him onside as well as connections have been waiting for better ground with him and they finally get it.

 

Deise Aba 2pts @ 11/2 with most bookies (6/1 with Hills and take up to 7/2)

Fairly Famous 1.5pts @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 7/2)

Quintin's Man 0.5pts @ 13/2 with most bookies (7s with 365 and Hills and take up to 5/1)

 

6.55

Regatta De Blanc - A perfect record in points having won 4/4 which includes a dead heat with Grace A Vous Enki in the Coronation Gold Cup at Larkhill in February. That was the run after he won the first hunter chase of the season at Taunton in a race which worked out very well with D'Jango and Bennys King 2^nd and 3rd. I thought she would be good enough to win at Newbury, but Secret Investor was back to form and finishing 2^nd to him is no disgrace. Her jumping let her down a bit and the form in behind has not worked out, but it could just be case of two good horses beaten some average ones. There is certainly no Secret Investor in this and she should be very hard to beat.

 

Chenery - Only has a rating of 103 under rules and hasn't looked in good points this season as she did last season where she won 3 on the bounce. 

 

Daisy Yeats - Only one win in 15 starts in points and that was partly because she was the only finisher.

 

Dul Ar Aghaidh - Wasn't a strong hunter chase she was 2^nd in at Cork on her last start before going to join Bradley, but that form is still better than most of these so is a contender for 2nd.

 

Glancing Glory - N/R

 

Grenadine Save - Has struggled in hunter chases and points this season and likely to be the same here.

 

Harbour Queen - N/R

 

Wheres My Wonder - Another Luca Morgan runner who is still a maiden and has no chance.

 

Verdict - If Regatta De Blanc doesn't win this then it will be the biggest shock of the hunter chase season. She should win this with ease because the rest are a very moderate bunch. 2 of the possible rivals are out now as well so Dul Ar Aghaidh really does look the only possible horse who looks capable of even coming 2nd.

 

7.30

D'Jango - Had a hell of a season since joining current connections having finished a superb 2^nd in the opening hunter chase of the season to Regatta De Blanc and then beating Tea Clipper at Warwick. I think he got bogged down in the mud at Warwick when 4^th in the Walrus. The 4^th at The Festival was of course much better and was a fantastic effort. The problem is his start a month later at Cotley where he was only 6^th of 7 behind Master Templar and Shantou Flyer who reversed Cheltenham and Taunton form. He wouldn't be the first horse to disappoint after running a big race at the Festival and given he stays really well this race has looked the ideal race for him all season so it might be worth forgiving him that poor effort.

 

Gaboriot - Interesting that they chose this race over the other options he had today including Punchestown where I think he would have had a chance. He was running very well when he unseated at Canal Turn in the Aintree Foxhunters where he was one of my bets of course. I thought he looked really good when winning at Catterick back in March and whilst he is unproven over 4m if his bang in form trainers think he will stay then that is good enough to me. He is a leading contender.

 

Law Of Gold - Been one of the best hunter chases in Britain in recent years including winning this race really impressive last year. The year before he jumped terribly and it was amazing that he even got as close to beating Coup De Pinceau as he did. Last year was very different and he travelled superbly well, jumped well and came home to a very easy 16L success. He then went to Stratford and ran terribly in the big race. This season he had his usual slow start when finishing 2^nd at Horseheath in January and he then won his next two including beating Fier Jaguen as mentioned earlier where he didn't look like winning until staying past him on the run-in. Nearly always runs his race and every chance he will hold onto his crown.

 

Young Buck - Ex Paul Nicholls and won a hunter chase at Newton Abbot over 3m2f a year ago. Didn't always jump well but won as easily as his form suggested he would. He's struggled a little bit for new connections in points this season. He was well beaten on his return and was then a 12L 3^rd to Another Furlough. He won his next start, but was then only 5^th in the same race D'Jango was 6^th in and Master Templer won. He looks like he's regressed to me.

 

Ange Des Malberaux - Not been seen for over a year and was out of form then so impossible to fancy.

 

Cheltenham De Vaige - Seems to always run well at this meeting and nothing wrong with his 3^rd in this race last year. That does mean he has 22L to make up on Law Of Gold though and on his first start since October I can't see him doing that.

 

Coup De Pinceau - Caused a huge shock when winning this at 100/1 in 2022, but he didn't win again until winning a point in March which was his 3^rd of 4 starts this season. The win was over 3m4f so again proving his stamina, but last time back over 3m he looked like he was going to win until just before the last and he found nothing for pressure. As a former winner and proven stayer you have to respect him, but if Law Of Gold had jumped as well as he did last year he wouldn't have won so I'm happy enough to oppose.

 

Finding Freedom - Luca must be running the whole stable and like the others looks to have no chance.

 

Master Templar - Has been very prolific in points after moving to this yard a couple of years ago having won 10 of his 15 starts. He's a proven stayer having won over 3m6f last season and 3m4f in January in a good performance on his seasonal return. He was beaten in a match on his next start but by a decent horse and only by a short head right on the line. As highlighted above he had Young Buck and D'Jango behind him when winning last time and to stay on and beat Shantou Flyer highlights what a top effort that was. This race has been the target and he looks to having a leading chance.

 

Mitchouka - Did win on New Years Eve at Horseheath, but has struggled a bit otherwise. That said his best effort was when just failing to win over 3m6f in March so at least the trip wont be an issue.

 

Myth Buster - Was 3^rd behind Premier Magic on this card last year when getting outpaced so going for this race seems a better option especially as he won over 4m last year by 30L. The problem for me though is he seems to have lost his way a little bit this season and didn't jump well on his only hunter chase run at Wincanton in February.

 

Perfect Pirate - Another one from the Luca Morgan yard who returned pointing after 1180 days off the track. Unlike his stablemates he has actually shown reasonable form this season and won last time at Paxford. He's still hard to fancy though in a race like this.

 

Pym - No doubt a name many will remember when he was running under rules mainly for Nicky Henderson a few years ago. He gave his jockey a first win when winning on his debut for current connections and actually clocked a faster time than Law Of Gold on the same card. That is probably a bit misleading though as they went a slow pace in that race and Law Of Gold's final circuit time was quicker. He followed up last month when again putting in a nice performance and he had Mitchouka in behind in 4th. Stamina for the trip is an unknown, but if he stays he could well be capable of running a decent race.

 

Dreaming Diamond - Pulled up at Stratford a couple of weeks ago and also impossible to fancy.

 

Verdict - This market was very different last night as Master Templar had been the one for money and had almost been backed into favourite, but he has been a big drifter this morning and is available at just as big a price as he opened up at. I am going to make him a bet now as he has won on softer conditions before. When Law Of Gold had drifted he was going to be the bet, but I think the rain is against him. He did win on soft 2 back, but he usually needs decent spring ground and whilst he could still win I don't think he is value anymore so I can't put him up as a bet. If Gaboriot stays then I think he will go very close to winning and I will cover D'Jango small as well because this has been the race I have had in mind for him all season. Hopefully he can bounce back from his run last time and if he does he will be a big player.

 

Master Templar 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (13/2 with William Hill and take up to 4/1)

Gaboriot 1.5pts @ 100/30 with William Hill (7/2 with BetVictor and Betfred and take up to 5/2)

D'Jango 0.5pts e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365 to 4 places (take up to 6/1)

 

8.05

Slievegar - Ran well in the Intermediate Final last year when finishing 2^nd and just didn't seem to stay. He then went to Kelso and won a weak hunter chase in easy style. This year has not been so good as he has been put in his place in all 3 points he has run in. A return to this track over a shorter trip might help him find the form he showed last year, but going to struggle if it doesn't.

 

Espoir De Guye - Thought there was some promise on his hunter chase debut when he didn't stay behind D'Jango at Warwick and he backed that up by beating Famous Clermont at Wincanton. I thought he won on merit that day, but fair to say he disappointed when 1/2F to win at Ludlow a month later. Captain Tommy beat him that day and all 3 of those pieces of form could be boosted prior to this race. He wasn't great at Aintree though and I just wonder if this stiffer track might catch him out even at this trip.

 

Go On Chez - Non-Runner

 

Rebel Dawn Rising - Better than just 2 hunter chase wins suggest and to be fair he would have won a 3^rd at Fakenham last Easter if he hadn't thrown Dale Peters over the last. He had issues at the last at Fakenham again on Gold Cup day, but at least he got over it this time and quickened up to win. I thought he ran a really good race on this card last year until his stamina gave out and if he can repeat that effort I think he's capable of going close. Key could be how he has come out of the run at Aintree where he was up there for a fair way before finishing last of the 10 to get round. He won't mind if they get a bit of rain.

 

Cat Tiger - Looks to have gone backwards based on his 3 runs this year. He ran out on his owner at Hereford and then was a well beaten 3^rd to Bennys King at Leicester. At Aintree he unseated at the 7^th which is obviously too early to know how he would have got on. If he did find his best form then he's got every chance of going close, but the evidence to me suggests he won't be good enough.

 

Cooldine Bog - He certainly won't be good enough.

 

Dalahast - Has got a plenty to find with Espoir De Guye on his Ludlow 4^th and he's never looked like winning a hunter chase yet.

 

Game Of War - Pulled up behind Espoir De Guye at Wincanton and even the jockey change to Darren Andrews shouldn't bring about enough improvement for him to get competitive in this.

 

Imperial Esprit - 15L 4^th to Yccs Portocervo at Kempton last week and would have to improve on that to do any better here.

 

Mix Of Clover - Failed to complete in his first 3 points where he unseated twice and ran out the 3^rd time. Did manage to finish at Kimble last time, but he was 36L behind Lift Me Up and that along with hos old rules form suggest he will struggle here.

 

Royal Act - Rated just 69 and was well beaten in a point a couple of weeks ago.

 

Solomon Grey - Won a hot renewal of this race in 2022 and was also a very good 3^rd in it last year. That win in 2022 was the last time he got his head in front, but he's run some very creditable races since then. He's just had the 2 runs this season and although he was 4/7 at Larkhill on his return he always needs his first run of the season so the 3^rd there wasn't a terrible effort. He was well backed ahead of the Stratford run la couple of weeks ago and was 3^rd again not beaten that far by Deise Aba. With the first 2 home running earlier on in the card he could get a form boost ahead of this. I would also imagine he will improve for the run again which is what happened in this race last year when he ran a few days before this contest.

 

Tekap - Showed a bit of ability in points the last couple of seasons and was in the lead for a long way in the Intermediate Final last year before not staying and pulling up. This year he has pulled up in all 3 starts including at Wincanton behind Espoir De Guye on his last start.

 

The Composeur - Time wasn't anything special, but he was a visually impressive winner on his seasonal return at Cocklebarrow in January. Was backed into 2/1 at Garthorpe the following month, but dropped away to finish a well beaten 5th. A BHA mark of 99 sums up how much he has to find with the leading contenders.

 

Verdict - This race often ends up being the most competitive race on the card, but not this year as very few have realistic claims of winning. As soon as I saw the going I knew Go On Chez was going to come out and so he has. I was going to take him on anyway with Rebel Dawn Rising. This is the race on the card for him as he didn't stay over 3m2f last year and as long as he is over the Aintree effort which was good for a long way, then he is the one to beat. I was going to add Solomon Grey, but he needs good ground and I fear the rain has done for him. He should come on for the run at Stratford though and the form might well have been boosted earlier in the evening, but for the moment I will leave him alone after the rain.

 

Rebel Dawn Rising 3pts @ 7/4 with Skybet and BetVictor (15/8 with Hills and take up to 5/4)

 

5.25 Punchestown

I think Its On The Line will win again this year. He's clearly the best hunter chaser in Ireland and obviously he wasn't beaten far by Sine Nomine at Cheltenham. Over this longer trip he should be able to sit closer to the pace than he could at Aintree and whilst he no doubt will race lazily he just keeps finding for Derek's urgings. He's so tough that I'm not too worried about him doing all 3 Festivals and he does remind me a lot of On The Fringe. 

 

There has been money for Lifetime Ambition and he had a rating of 158 in last year's Grand National. He's not up to that sort of level now, but clearly can still run to a decent mark and he bolted up over 2m4f at Cork on Easter Monday in what was a fairly weak race. He is a danger, but needs Its On The Line to run below par for me.

 

I can't have Famous Clermont on what he has done this season although James King being able to claim 3lbs in Ireland is a little plus for him although given he is a hard ride maybe the fact Will, who knows him so well, isn't ideal. He missed Aintree because of the ground so does come here fresh, but he needs to get back to last year's form to have any sort of chance.

 

Ferns Lock is interesting because I do think he will stay 3m round here so I don't think the trip is the problem it was at Cheltenham. He went nuts there though. He looked on edge coming down the walkway to the track and then as soon as the hood came off he lost the plot and any chance of him winning disappeared. Running him at Fairyhouse was crazy although to be fair I was shocked he was beaten by Boss Robin. He's had a month off since and if he can keep a lid on things he does have the ability to win this. I don't know too much about his jockey, but he performed a hell of a recovery in the La Touche Cup yesterday and he looks more than capable.

 

Billaway will no doubt run his usual solid race although he only got to the 4^th last year when he unseated. He was 5^th at Cheltenham though and it was a sign that he isn't quite at the level he was. Vaucelet has been 2^nd in this for the last 2 years and maybe some spring ground will see an improvement, but he looks to have gone based on his form earlier in the season. We also know that he isn't as good as Ferns Lock if that one has is mind on the job, let alone being able to reverse form with Its On The Line. I suspect Boss Robin was flattered by his win over Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse and Samcro is the big price he should be.

 

So all in all Its On The Line rates a fairly strong bet, but I will also cover Ferns Lock because the ability is there and the price is big enough.

 

Its On The Line 2.5pts @ 7/4 with Bet365 and BetVictor (take up to 5/4)

Ferns Lock 0.5pts @ 9/1 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 6/1

Fair play to you for that write up .

I know nothing of Hunter Chase races other than trainer D.Kemp is supposed to be pretty good at his job .

Good luck with your bets 👍

5.45 Cheltenham  Polish  ( each way )  11/2 Bet 365