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Posts
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18 hours ago, ian309 said:
Congrats to Leo and Andy, who now hold the record for the longest-ever HU in PL history
Epic head up battle with Leo…some great play and discipline by both….there were two breaks just to give you an idea of how long it went on lol!
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8 minutes ago, frames said:
A long time ago (decades, probably) there was a vogue amongst gamblers for being dismissive of 'systems' and then saying that what they did was to use 'methods' for selection. In the end I suppose you pay your money and make your choice, but the difference between the teeth of that fine comb of definition escaped me then, and still does.
I suppose a system is something where "computer says yes/no" and you bet regardless of how good or bad the bet strikes you. A "method" might be where you consider the system rating alongside other variables and make an informed choice. The use of speed ratings seems to fall more into the latter category. Compare the output to the prices on offer and make an informed choice on how many selections to back and how to combine them.
From a goalscorer perspective I have a simple system that only involves two variables. 3 x 25 = 75 = bet, no other considerations involved (where 3 is the fixed odds price). 3 x 24 = 72 = a possible bet if I have time to look at the players stats. The former is very much a pure system bet whereas I record the latter as a "studied" bet which you could definitely say uses a consistent method. The studied bets have the better ROI this year though it was the other way round last year.
I've had many systems or methods that have worked well for a while over the years but fallen away over time. That will be for a variety of reasons; sometimes there was no real edge as the approach was based on too small a data sample, sometimes the bookies or other punters cotton on and the prices adjust, sometimes the market gets dropped because the firm was taking a hammering. Sometimes the value is still there like low hanging fruit but the b*****d farmer bans you from the orchard!
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515 l Sunset Paris 5/2
540 d 2-3 rfc
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There's been biblical rain at Newmarket so I very much doubt porta fortuna will win now ....wanted fast ground ...it's now heavy ...jeez .....in fact I might have to rerate both races now because everything changed 🫣
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1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:
I'd rated her on her only run in GB, when she was 13th of 16.
I've rerated based on the last run in Ireland and the rating achieved in that race was 75.
So would that equate to a rating of 75 instead of 33 or something in between? I can re-run the numbers if you think it would be a more accurate assessment.
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