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You guys have certainly sold me on the merits of speed ratings in the right hands (which isn’t me, recent collaborative dabbling not withstanding). I agree they’re primarily a tool that helps with the decision making and need a degree of interpretation. I think a system that involves actually calculating your own “fair” odds and betting when you can get the required margin lends itself more to backing every qualifier without exception, for as long as the returns continue to support that.
I’m happy with that approach, on a busy day with loads of matches I’ll probably just back the system qualifiers (and have plenty of bets). On a quieter day I’ll have a look at the “not quite” bets and see if any look worth backing regardless. I would also consider other backing options where time allows (bet builders, multis, first scorer). I would never second guess the system, even when it throws up Dominic Calvert-Lewin! I think that’s the difference between ratings that give you an idea of the relative merits of the runners and a system that calculates your own fair odds.
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8 hours ago, harry_rag said:
# Horse Odds BF MaxAv 1 PORTA FORTUNA 21 26 122.6 2 FALLEN ANGEL 4.5 4.5 120.8 3 YLANG YLANG 5 7.2 119.5 4 RAMATUELLE 11 9.4 118.4 5 DARNATION 41 30 118.4 6 SACRED ANGEL 67 100 115.2 7 SEE THE FIRE 10 11.5 115.2 8 REGAL JUBILEE 34 28 113.2 9 PRETTY CRYSTAL 15 24 112.7 10 STAR STYLE 34 23 110.6 11 DANCE SEQUENCE 6 5.9 109.2 12 ROLICA 67 150 108.4 13 CINDERELLAS DREAM 21 21 107.8 14 CONTENT 26 44 106.6 15 STAR MUSIC 67 34 104.2 16 BRILLIANT 67 85 101.5 17 TAMFANA 67 85 99.7 18 FINSCEAL LUCAS 151 160 92.6 19 ELMALKA 34 30 92.6 20 LUNAR ECLIPSE 67 160 88.2 Ranked based on highest individual rating. Same top 3 but some movement after that.
# Horse Odds BF MinAv 1 PORTA FORTUNA 21 26 109.2 2 DANCE SEQUENCE 6 5.9 106.8 3 FALLEN ANGEL 4.5 4.5 104.9 4 YLANG YLANG 5 7.2 102.3 5 RAMATUELLE 11 9.4 97.7 6 REGAL JUBILEE 34 28 97.7 7 PRETTY CRYSTAL 15 24 95.1 8 SACRED ANGEL 67 100 95.0 9 STAR STYLE 34 23 95.0 10 BRILLIANT 67 85 93.6 11 ROLICA 67 150 93.0 12 SEE THE FIRE 10 11.5 92.8 13 STAR MUSIC 67 34 92.3 14 DARNATION 41 30 90.2 15 FINSCEAL LUCAS 151 160 88.2 16 CINDERELLAS DREAM 21 21 87.5 17 ELMALKA 34 30 70.8 18 TAMFANA 67 85 69.8 19 CONTENT 26 44 42.4 20 LUNAR ECLIPSE 67 160 34.9 And based on lowest, so just the four runners you all rate as above average. @Zilzalian Can you confirm the Stopwatch rating of 33 for Lunar Eclipse? Just wanted to check with 2 low outliers both being 33.
Sorry Harry just noticed this. Stopwatch for Lunar Eclipse is 21 based off its only run if i was rating this it would be followed by a + ie 21+
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Is anyone else intrigued by all this and can't wait to either be laughing or crying once the results are in? 🤣
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I've only seen one frame of Bingham vs Jones but I don't like what I saw of Bingham. Absolutely threw away that frame, although Jones cleaned up nicely when he got the chance. I wasn't hugely impressed by Bingham vs Ronnie either, despite the win. 'O Sullivan really underperformed. If I was putting on a bet now it'd be on Jones or Jones plus the handicap.
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4.15 Punchestown
Win Perceval Legallois @ 15/4 paddy power
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