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Final Result:
Sad to say we managed to produce the worst overall result of all the divisions, we were obviously overcome by the occasion of being in the top tier! We wiped out half our overall bank and only 3 managed to stay in individual profit for the season although most of us did find at least one winner. But it looks like only our 1st place winner will be returning to Division 1 for the next season.
3 small wins this week plus an eliminating no show gives us a change to the top 4. @Sterphyle is our well deserved winner by some margin with 7 wins over the season, a mix of double and treble picks. @tonythepaint climbs up to 2nd place with a 5th win, and @Cauncie maintains his 3rd place. @Jediknight was our other weekly winner and takes the 4th place prize although not in overall profit. Well done to everyone for trying so hard all season, see you down in a lower Division next year.
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Kemp 525 City Of Delight 3/1
800 Metaverse 14/1
£10 wins bet365.
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52 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
I think the wisest advice I have heard is not to look for winners but to look for value.
A 1/10 shot is good value if the true odds are 1/20 whereas a 100/1 shot is not value if it's true odds are 200/1.
I believe that the master of Lucky 15's @Zilzalian once said something along the lines of if you add the odds up and it is less than 28 then it is best just to have a win bet instead of each way.
Anyway, I thought that I would check to see if the probabilities change using various odds for selections when you select a total of say 28 to 1 for all four.
I tried to even out the odds thinking that I would have a better chance of getting all four in if I did so. I put the odds of 7/1 = 28 total in my calculator = 0.125 x 0.125 x 0.125 x 0.125 the answer came back 2.44140625 x10 negative 4 which I believe = 0.0000244140625.
I then put in the odds of 10/1, 2/1, 12/1 and 4/1 = 28/1 total = 0.91 x 0.333 x 0.077 x 0.2 the answer came back 4.666662 x 10 negative 3 which I believe = 0.0004666662
So, it looks like the old geezer's right that we should mix up some of the larger odds with the smaller odds to have a better chance of getting a winning return on all four.
At this point I fully expect @Valiant Thor to appear from the clouds and tell me that I have got it all wrong again.
However, this seems to be an interesting thought to sleep on
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Southwell Wednesday 18:10 Lipa K 4/1 Win WIlliamHill
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