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Posts
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Mayar Sherif (+1.5 sets) to beat Emma Navarro at 1.98 with Unibet
The tournament conditions are tough this week in both Saint Malo and Lleida, and I've liked Sherif's grit so far. Navarro has a much higher ceiling than her, but she can sometimes go walkabouts when things aren't going her way, and Sherif knows how to help that, plus she leads the H2H 2-0, so she should be confident of getting a result. I like the set handicap here.
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Sayedaty Sadaty 14.25 Newmarket 13/2 william hill
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4.15 Punchestown Hardwired 20/1 Bet365 EW
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Ok, will do.
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3 hours ago, harry_rag said:
You guys have certainly sold me on the merits of speed ratings in the right hands (which isn’t me, recent collaborative dabbling not withstanding). I agree they’re primarily a tool that helps with the decision making and need a degree of interpretation. I think a system that involves actually calculating your own “fair” odds and betting when you can get the required margin lends itself more to backing every qualifier without exception, for as long as the returns continue to support that.
I’m happy with that approach, on a busy day with loads of matches I’ll probably just back the system qualifiers (and have plenty of bets). On a quieter day I’ll have a look at the “not quite” bets and see if any look worth backing regardless. I would also consider other backing options where time allows (bet builders, multis, first scorer). I would never second guess the system, even when it throws up Dominic Calvert-Lewin! I think that’s the difference between ratings that give you an idea of the relative merits of the runners and a system that calculates your own fair odds.
Tell you what @harry_rag How about i supply you with all the raw speed data for 2yo on the Monday of Royal Ascot and see how a different mind might interpret it? I think there are 3 2yo group races races.
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