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Posts
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Catt. 620.
Prince Hector. 13/2@ bet365.
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26 minutes ago, harry_rag said:
I'll stick this in here as it seems legitimate as a variable to be considered before placing a bet (and follows up on a recent discussion). The issue of how you decide whether to go for the best price or the extra places when betting each way.
Having had a look at the 7:50 in Naas (19 runners), Sky are going 6 places from 4 though most firms are offering 5 anyway. I've looked at a couple of runners:
- Captured 18/1 to 6 places v 25/1 to 5 places (5th the odds)
- Calamint 16/1 to 6 places v 18/1 to 5 places (5th the odds)
My gut reaction is that the drop in price for the first horse is a bit steep but the second one isn't that significant. I've quickly crunched some numbers that give the following ratings (in terms of the decision about whether to favour the extra places); Captured at 0.74 v Calamint at 1.89. That's based on the gain in places (positive) and the reduction in price (negative) and the bigger the number the better the extra place option is.
Out of interest, how do you racing punters feel about those two options. Would you tend towards the better price for the first one but the extra place for the second?
Well lets take different types of punters. I assume we are talking about singles here.
Type 1 The analysers or ratings creators (me) I expect my horse to win i never pick an ew (that's different than having an ew bet because a daft sod would be a fool to back win only on a 33/1 shot, again me) so would have to be confident in my selection anyway so i would want the bigger price.
Type 2 The casual punter that just likes to have a bet, he might choose to have a win bet or an ew depending on its price if he is betting for fun rather than profit (a winning bet would be nice) could choose either.
Type 3 The punter that knows nothing about horses (you 🤣) and shouldn't really be having a bet on gg's should take the extra places in both cases.
Type 4 The shit bag punter that is scared of losing money that would go EW on a 3/1 shot type, he would defo pick both the extra place options.
Not applicable to Type 5 punters, The don't give a f**k punter that can't even be bothered reading past the list of runners let alone the "options"
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2030 wol
STREAK LIGHTNING 9/4 WH
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demanding lilly 7.09
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kangaroo 7.00
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