Jump Season 2009/2010 ~ Horses To Follow, Antepost Bets, Banter, Q&A

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by mileni4uk

Rite Of Passage pissed the big handicap at Leopardstown. Just wonder how good that Dunguib form is. The horses he blew away keep winning and most of them easily.

scared the life out of me as i have it in my diary to back 1st time up & then realised it was a flat race ! Won comfortably by 8L though"!

will be a short price now 1st time up!

[kopite19]

Barbers shop ! anybody think or heard if nicky henderson is deffo goin for the hennessy or the betfair ? comments would br appreciated

[mileni4uk]

Originally Posted by kopite19

Barbers shop ! anybody think or heard if nicky henderson is deffo goin for the hennessy or the betfair ? comments would br appreciated

Betfair Chase, mate. And then King George.

[kopite19]

Originally Posted by mileni4uk

Betfair Chase, mate. And then King George.

is that for deffo mate or what you think ?

[mileni4uk]

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/hom...rgument=652187

[mileni4uk]

Actually they've changed their mind and they are going for the Hennessy:

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse...3895/standard/

[fintron]

My first bet for the National this year - Arbor Supreme.

Improving young chaser from the Willie Mullins yard that has experience of a National having contested the Irish equivalent this year, and he has proven his stamina beyond 3m with a couple of placed efforts in good company. The trainer reports he is improving his jumping with age as part of a recent stable tour and said Aintree is the likely target. I feel he is open to more improvement off his present mark and despite his young age, he has had quite a bit of chase experience. £2 @ 48.0 for now.

[Gingertipster]

My first bet in the National this year:
Hello Bud @ 40/1 (WH)
Winner of three Nationals already (Scottish, Somerset and Sussex), so stays extremely well. Tough, genuine and consistent. Seems still to be improving at the age of 11 (12 next year of course). Goes on a firm or a soft surface. Ran and jumped brilliantly at Cheltenham last weekend, finishing third over an inadequate 3m3f. Might be getting some Aintree experience in the Beecher. Related to two unlucky horses in the National. The dam is out of a half sister to the National winner that never was Esha Ness. A grand daughter of Hello Bud's fourth dam Sprite was in front after the last in 71 when breaking down, crossing the line in 5th. Another grandson of Sprite Stearsby won the Welsh National, and a great grandson Willsford won the Scottish version at the age of 12. Sprite is half sister to Irish National winner Splash. A true National pedigree.

All Hello Bud has to do now is make it a clean sweep for the family. Easy.

[mowgli77]

Katchit - World Hurdle 2010 - 20/1 Stan James
The horse is too small to ever make a chaser and Alan King reports that it has lost some zip over 2m so he steps it up in trip today and says it will need a 3m trip in time. I would hope he would aim this at the World Hurdle as it does not look the strongest race apart from Big Bucks. It usually travels well, knows how to battle and has loads of heart and has the proven course form at Cheltenham. If it gets to this race in March I feel it will be a lot shorter in price, speculative bet as it may not even get 3m over hurdles but I'm willing to take that chance at this stage.

[mowgli77]

Some Present - Supreme Novices Hurdle 2010 - 46.0 Betfair
I have only just watched back the race from last week when Loosen My Load beat it but I was really impressed with the way this one powered up the hill and it was closing all the way to the line. If it had been placed handier coming up the hill it could have won. A lot of horses fade away in that final furlong but this was full of running, that could be because they went off at a slow pace but I thought 46.0 on Betfair was too big and had some of that. Still about £15 left at that price, it's best price 25-1 with the bookies. Could be a lost bet before a run if it decides to go for the Ballymore race instead of this one but that's the risk with ante post bets.

Planet Of Sound - Ryanair Chase 2010 - 18.5 Betfair
Really impressed with this today to finish 2nd after a bad jump, rallied back really well and down to 10-1 with Skybet, best price 16-1 with William Hill. I put this in todays daily thread and feel it is a horse going places, 3rd in last years Arkle so has some course experience and consistent type that is progressing well. If it is fit and the trainer is in form come March this is in with a real chance. Hopefully Richard Johnson is injured come Cheltenham and a more capable jockey will get the ride.

[mileni4uk]

Albertas Run is not yet on the Ryanair market. I think he is a very very big player for this race now if he gets goodish ground. Especially with Imperial going the Gold Cup route.

[Hoprock]

I've picked up some advice from various knowledgeable posters on here and added a few brain cells of my own (not too many mind, they're in short supply ) to come up with a speculative Ante Post bet which hopefully will provide a little bit of interest.

As always with these 'speculative' bets, stakes are fairly low but there's always a chance of a big payday by getting the prices now. My own personal preference is about 90% of the stake on doubles and trebles and the rest on 6-folds, 7-folds and the acc (just in case !).


Petit Robin (Queen Mother) 33/1
BTP makes a good case for this one on another thread and I remember a few guys on the forum also fancied it last year at fancy prices. Still open to improvement and at the current prices makes the most appeal.

Tataniano (Arkle) 8/1
I heard on ATR that Paul Nicholls is really fond of this one and he has stated that the Arkle is the race that it's being aimed at. Won well and jumped well last week.

Binocular (Champion Hurdle) 7/2
All the stats last season said that it was at least a year too young to win a Champion Hurdle and so it proved to be. Another years experience and another years physical growth down the line, I expect it to go very close with A P McCoy almost certain to be in the saddle.

Pistolet Noir (Triumph Hurdle) 25/1
This one is currently at the top of BTP novice hurdler ratings and it was a great piece of form when slamming Barizan last time out for such a lightly raced horse. The horse was receiving weight that day but will improve, stayed on well and showed a liking for Cheltenham on that run.

Weird Al (RSA Chase) 25/1
I had liked the look of this one and having seen Stewarts write-up for it on his Ante Post thread, that was good enough for me to include it. The trainer Ian Williams is quoted as saying he hasn't any firm plans for the horse but is obviously a 'very exciting' prospect. The horse also now has course form so I think the 25/1 is worth taking at this stage.

Quel Esprit (Ballymore) 14/1
The Ballymore is a tough one to play Ante Post since many horses near the head of the market have several engagements so even getting one to line up is tricky. I've read however that the Ballymore is this horses likeliest target and it finished 4th in the Bumper last year and was the highest placed of the Mullins horses.

Treacle (Grand National) 50/1
Has run well over some long trips and has the required level of class to go close in a National (has already won the Munster National). I always like to look at the breeding side of things when looking for a National candidate and the horse is progeny of Zaffaran which has produced some good winners over marathon trips. Didn't have much luck in running last time out but did well considering and the trainer has stated that the English National is still the target race.

New England Patriots (Superbowl) 4/1
I put this one in to hopefully get the ball rolling before the festival starts. The Patriots have been getting better as the season progresses but I think the key factor is that they have the crucial experience when it comes to the knockout stages and this experience will prove vital in these sudden death matches.

[Gingertipster]

Originally Posted by Gingertipster

My first bet in the National this year:
Hello Bud @ 40/1 (WH)
Winner of three Nationals already (Scottish, Somerset and Sussex), so stays extremely well. Tough, genuine and consistent. Seems still to be improving at the age of 11 (12 next year of course). Goes on a firm or a soft surface. Ran and jumped brilliantly at Cheltenham last weekend, finishing third over an inadequate 3m3f. Might be getting some Aintree experience in the Beecher. Related to two unlucky horses in the National. The dam is out of a half sister to the National winner that never was Esha Ness. A grand daughter of Hello Bud's fourth dam Sprite was in front after the last in 71 when breaking down, crossing the line in 5th. Another grandson of Sprite Stearsby won the Welsh National, and a great grandson Willsford won the Scottish version at the age of 12. Sprite is half sister to Irish National winner Splash. A true National pedigree.

All Hello Bud has to do now is make it a clean sweep for the family. Easy.

Niche Market put up a good Grand National trial yesturday in the Hennessy, running at least as well as in Ireland. Jumping really well as usual. We know he stays and acts on good going (now proven on soft) with the Irish National win. Every reason to think he will improve with an extreme distance. Like Hello Bud, bred for the job. Shares tail female great grandam with Amberleigh House.

Niche Market 33/1 (Ladbrokes)

[bowles10]

Haven't completed all my Cheltenham ratings yet, think it may be January before i do at this rate!

Anyway, been trawling thru the Betfair markets & feel the following may prove big prices come March

Arkle
Mikhael D'Haguenet 17.5 (doubt over whether this is 1st choice as a target but was very impressive last year & handles any ground)

Champion Chase
Mikhael D'Haguenet 160.0 (obvius this MAY NOT be the target but price is too big just in case so a small bet)

Petit Robin 38.0 (already been mentioned on here & still improvement in this horse, any trial wins & the price will shorten)

Champion Hurdle
Dunguib 24.0 (will be a big ask, but if stays unbeaten & lines up on the day, may be half this price)

Gold cup
What a Friend 70.0 (was impressed yesterday, still a big price after flopping behind Cooldine last year)

RSA Chase
Mikhael D'Hagunet 6.8 (may be prime target this year & could be much shorter on the day if unbeaten this season0

Ryanair chase
Kalahari King 36.0 (needs to prove it stays but this is my dark horse yet again for the festival)

[bowles10]

Formerly the Ballymore Novices Hurdle, i think its now the Baring Nov Hurdle

Anyway its over 2m 5f

Tell Massini 25.0 won at the track over the distance at the last meeting & again this price could go shorter in time. 2pts

[billy the punter]

Only just seen this.

Which trainers are you putting faith in for this year? Jim Best

Which trainers are you treading carefully with or ducking this year? Not treading carefully as such but I feel current form is especially important with some yards, Ferdy Murphy, Howard Johnson, Hobbs, Twiston-Davies.

Which trainers are you hoping have a tough year? None really

Which trainer do you want to see do especially well? Jim Best

Which jockeys will boost your confidence when you see them on your horse? AP, Ruby, Jamie Moore, Seamus Durack, Choc, Aiden Coleman, Richie McLernon

Which jockeys will you avoid if possible? Evan Whilans, Dougie Costello, Paul Benson, Andrew Thornton

Which racecourse(s) are you planning on visiting for the first time? Not sure, Fontwell maybe.

Which racecourse are you most looking forward to returning to? Cheltenham

Which horse would you love to see win a big prize? Anak, Niche Market, Gone To Lunch

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

Formerly the Ballymore Novices Hurdle, i think its now the Baring Nov Hurdle

Anyway its over 2m 5f

Tell Massini 25.0 won at the track over the distance at the last meeting & again this price could go shorter in time. 2pts

Wonder if it go for the Albert Bartlett now over 3m after winning today, although i still think the 2m 5f suits it better but will have to take on the best from Ireland i expect

Its 6.8 for the Albert now & 22.0 for the Baring Nov hrdle

[mileni4uk]

Originally Posted by bowles10

Wonder if it go for the Albert Bartlett now over 3m after winning today, although i still think the 2m 5f suits it better but will have to take on the best from Ireland i expect

Its 6.8 for the Albert now & 22.0 for the Baring Nov hrdle

I would lay that, mate. He is all about staying and better ground is expected in March so over 2m5f few could have more speed than him. Imo he's Albert Bartlet horse, but if he lines up for the Baring Nov Hurdle I'll delete this post

[Gingertipster]

4/6 looks fair value for Kauto Star on his record in the race. But whether he'll be able to reproduce previous form is yet to be proven this term. In my opinion not at his best on reappearance in the Betfair Chase when possibly not fully fit. However, despite Nicholls words, very well backed on the day which suggests he was fit enough. Some improvement on that run can be expected, but it is not certain he'll be at his best. Almost 10 years old and French breds often reach their peak sooner than their English or Irish cousins. It is possible, if not probable we've seen the best of Kauto Star, though will be difficult to beat even on last time out form.

If Kauto Star did run to form at Haydock, then Imperial Commander is an outstanding price at 6/1 (or 7/2 without KS). If not at his best, then an improver, proven at 3m is what we should be looking for. Imperial Commander looks the answer. It is true, he does have an excellent record first time out and has not run to form right-handed (only two starts that way). But when running RH in the King George the trainer was well out of form, with very few runners running well. 1 win in 46 runners in December, 1 win in 35 in January (2 from 81 combined). Can easily excuse one poor performance in Ireland. Has 5 weeks to get over the Betfair run. Ran only three times as a novice, injured on the last one in December. Won the other two which were less than four weeks apart. Also ran well when 3rd at Aintree as a novice hurdler after finishing 7th at Cheltenham. At 6/1 the price makes it well worth the small chance of him not performing, especially with Twister going so well at the moment.

Madison Du Berlais usually comes on a great deal for his first run and needs to. Well behind in the Betfair Chase (friendless on the run up to race day) and did not jump with his usual fluency. Convinced he's best leading or racing wide with a view of the front. In the Gold Cup had horses on both sides and seemed to give up. Goes well on a sharp track, either way around. 8/1 compared to 6/1 Imperial Commander does not look value.

Deep Purple is improving, but still needs to improve a good deal to win this.

Barber Shop is a possibly at the price. Some don't think he stayed at Newbury, but was with stayer Niche Market two out and only finished just behind that horse at the finished. There is a possibility though he will improve again at slightly shorter.

Nacarat won the Racing Post in the style of a very good horse, but needs to be better than ever and has run poorly this term.

Alberta's Run was second in this last year, is inconsistent and possibly needs to race prominently out wide, gives up when crowded. Getting plenty of weight when successful at Ascot.

Tartak looked a possible improver at the end of last season. Showed he's coming back to form when chasing home Deep Purple. Was an excellent jumper as a novice yet it fell apart on reappearance. Far better at Huntingdon but still made a couple of bad errors. Without those would have been a lot closer to Deep Purple. Could be a nice speculative couple of quid exchanges bet on the day.

In my opinion Imperial Commander has a chance of beating Kauto Star and should beat the rest if running to Betfair form. So 7/2 with WH without Kauto Star and 6/1 with, look excellent value.

[billvernon]

I think Imperial is a left handed horse and also needs a longer break - Kauto has proven he can win and the last run would have shaken away the cobwebs .
Albertas Run is the horse I think has a chance at a place at a good price.Running a lot better this season.

Also What a Friend and Barbershop if they run they should run a good race.nicholls and Henderson are firing at the moment.