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Posts
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Renoir @ 151Southwell 15:00 - 365
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Running an idea up the flagpole ........
Horses might not need to run as fast as they can in order to win as they can win comfortable with plenty in hand ........ but a horse finishing within a length or two of the winner probably is running as fast as he can trying to catch the one in front of him
Perhaps we could get a more realistic rating telling us about the horses ability level by discounting the races he won and just going by the races he was placed in
probably doesn't make sense ....... 😜
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Had 2 L15's on the daily = 3 pts
2.45 Ayr Smalleytime 1 pt win at 8.2
3.15 Ayr Bustaam 1 pt win at 7.60
= 5 pts staked today
No Naps today
- yossa6133 and anaconda69
- 2
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5 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
Saturday is the 2000 guineas with the 1000 following on Sunday .....of course in the 2000 guineas all eyes are on the Aiden o briens ...CITY OF TROY who is being likened to o briens version of Frankel
Can't argue that the horse has done everything asked so far in facile manner so it's hard to see how this horse will be beat surely but either way ....when there's a short priced fav there has to be an opportunity for value bets elsewhere so I've asked the computer to rate the current 21 entries with a view to seeing what if anything could be a potential value bet alternative bet ....these are the ratings that came back ....
City of Troy 9.2 4/6
Henry Longfellow. 8.9. 25/1
Haatem 8.8 25/1
Ghostwriter. 8.6 16/1
Rosallion. 8.5 5/1
Interesting set of results ....computer has city of Troy clear but he has been downgraded slightly based on unknown on fast ground ....so if there is any chink in this favs armour that's possibly it if the ground goes fast as it currently is .....the horse was soooo effective on soft recording a fast time ...can he be equally effective on fast ????.....not many horses can as it requires a different action but not impossible
If the rating holds true then Aiden o brien would get the 2nd spot too with Henry Longfellow who has quietly risen through the ranks and has generally been overlooked ....but we all know never to ignore o briens 2nd or 3rd strings as they regularly pop up when you least expect them
Not much between haatem and ghostwriter on form ...they both look very evenly matched ....you could argue that ghostwriter just edged it with class and going if the ground comes up fast but I wouldn't like to put money on that come the day .....especially if the ground came up good as that would very much swing back in haatems favour
And finally rosallion .....who is a lot of people's idea of an Ew horse if there is one and I can't fault the horse and he's very much an improving type .....for me there's no value in the horse at all when you compare him to the other better priced horses in the ratings ......all comes down to value really ....
Good form actually at Newmarket is a very good thing to have also ....with the undulations really not suiting many horses ....good form can realistically give you as much as 5lb bonus so based on that ......
City of Troy won
Henry Longfellow. Unknown
Haatem. Won
Ghostwriter. Won
Rosallion. Unknown
That would seem to strengthen the Ew value of haatem and ghostwriter and overall those two look the overall best value in the race .....nothing wrong with Henry Longfellow though .....looks prime for forecasts and tricasts I think 🤔....although it may help later today as I think declarations have to be in today ?....so some might drop out yet ....Aiden might not even run Henry after all which would help .....just a shame only 3 places on offer for a 20 runner race currently ....that's pretty crap really ...cmon bookies
Anyone liking any of those ??....or other thoughts ?
Wow ...7 horses dropped out but all five rated stood their ground
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14 minutes ago, tschurchy said:
Thanks @harry_rag.
I’ve passed this on to our devs to resolve.
Cheers. I don't know if there's a time/date mismatch that could be resolved relating to where we are with BST etc. The MLS fixtures show as split across 4th and 5th May but they all kick off at 00:30 on the 5th according to the BBC and 365. It would be good if they could be accurate in terms of our time.
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