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Posts
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3 hours ago, harry_rag said:
I'll stick this in here as it seems legitimate as a variable to be considered before placing a bet (and follows up on a recent discussion). The issue of how you decide whether to go for the best price or the extra places when betting each way.
Having had a look at the 7:50 in Naas (19 runners), Sky are going 6 places from 4 though most firms are offering 5 anyway. I've looked at a couple of runners:
- Captured 18/1 to 6 places v 25/1 to 5 places (5th the odds)
- Calamint 16/1 to 6 places v 18/1 to 5 places (5th the odds)
My gut reaction is that the drop in price for the first horse is a bit steep but the second one isn't that significant. I've quickly crunched some numbers that give the following ratings (in terms of the decision about whether to favour the extra places); Captured at 0.74 v Calamint at 1.89. That's based on the gain in places (positive) and the reduction in price (negative) and the bigger the number the better the extra place option is.
Out of interest, how do you racing punters feel about those two options. Would you tend towards the better price for the first one but the extra place for the second?
Another variable is that Sky do not offer BOG.
Another feature is the "shape" of the betting, if the favourite is short priced then there is likely to be more benefit of betting each way
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Punchestown Tuesday 15:05 In Dor 16/1 Win Betfair
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7 hours ago, Trotter said:
Running an idea up the flagpole ........
Horses might not need to run as fast as they can in order to win as they can win comfortable with plenty in hand ........ but a horse finishing within a length or two of the winner probably is running as fast as he can trying to catch the one in front of him
Perhaps we could get a more realistic rating telling us about the horses ability level by discounting the races he won and just going by the races he was placed in
probably doesn't make sense ....... 😜
This will be one of the variables I will be looking at in my analysis
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3.40 Punchestown
Mystical Power 2/1 bet365
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5 hours ago, yossa6133 said:
Seems odd when City of Troy's best RPR is 124 vs 102 for Ballymount Boy!
Indeed it does. However on the day Ballymount Boy achieved its rating of 102 it ran in a quicker time than Al Husn on the same card an hour later and that was rated 116. I assume RPR takes account of more than the speed of the race.
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