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Total Posts -
Posts
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Kemp 525 City Of Delight 3/1
800 Metaverse 14/1
£10 wins bet365.
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52 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
I think the wisest advice I have heard is not to look for winners but to look for value.
A 1/10 shot is good value if the true odds are 1/20 whereas a 100/1 shot is not value if it's true odds are 200/1.
I believe that the master of Lucky 15's @Zilzalian once said something along the lines of if you add the odds up and it is less than 28 then it is best just to have a win bet instead of each way.
Anyway, I thought that I would check to see if the probabilities change using various odds for selections when you select a total of say 28 to 1 for all four.
I tried to even out the odds thinking that I would have a better chance of getting all four in if I did so. I put the odds of 7/1 = 28 total in my calculator = 0.125 x 0.125 x 0.125 x 0.125 the answer came back 2.44140625 x10 negative 4 which I believe = 0.0000244140625.
I then put in the odds of 10/1, 2/1, 12/1 and 4/1 = 28/1 total = 0.91 x 0.333 x 0.077 x 0.2 the answer came back 4.666662 x 10 negative 3 which I believe = 0.0004666662
So, it looks like the old geezer's right that we should mix up some of the larger odds with the smaller odds to have a better chance of getting a winning return on all four.
At this point I fully expect @Valiant Thor to appear from the clouds and tell me that I have got it all wrong again.
However, this seems to be an interesting thought to sleep on
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Southwell Wednesday 18:10 Lipa K 4/1 Win WIlliamHill
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On Sunday @black rabbit picked ZIGGYS PHOENIX at 66/ 1winner
On Monday @luckypants picked EVELYN'S PHOENIX at 33/1 winner
Perhaps we are over complicating matters, just pick a horse with PHOENIX in it's name !
- The Equaliser and harry_rag
- 2
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