Free Bets
This weekend’s big handicap is the AIS December Gold Cup Chase at Cheltenham. This premier handicap is run over 2 miles, 4 furlongs and 127 yards and is open to horses aged 4 or older. Off time is 1.50 and 15 go to post.
Frodon has won this twice before going on to win at the Cheltenham Festival. Coole Cody won this last year before going on to win at the festival at odds of 22/1.
William Hill offer each-way terms of 5 places which makes the race an excellent horse racing betting proposition.
Key Trends and Stats – Against The Odds
I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 seasons and these are my key conclusions.
- It is best to side with those horses in the middle of the market. Those horses with forecast odds less than 8/1 have a record of 0 wins from 29 runners. Those with odds greater than 12/1 have a record of 0 from 41. All the winners have been between 8/1 and 12/1 with 9 winners from 49 runners.
- It is difficult to carry high weights in this race. Horses carrying more than 10st 10lb have 3 wins from 60 attempts compared to 6 from 40 for the lower weights.
- Experienced horses perform better than their less experienced opponents. Horses who have run more than 18 times have recorded 4 wins from 33 attempts compared to 5 from 87 for their less experienced opponents.
- It is helpful to have had a recent run. Only 1 horse (from 40 attempts) has won this after a lay-off of more than 28 days.
Only 1 horse matches these criteria, DEYRANN DE CARJACJ.
I suggest backing this at 12/1 each way horse racing tip with William Hills who are offering 5 places.
Further statistics that may prove relevant.
As already indicated favourites have a poor record (0 from 9). For 2nd favourites it is 0 from 14.
The ideal age is 8, with 3 wins from 33 attempts.
Irish bred horses have the best record with 5 wins from 53 runners.
Paul Nicholls has the best record in this race with 5 winners in the last 13 years. This year he saddles Simply The Betts and Il Ridito.
