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With all the main trials run I thought it would be a good time to take stock and have a fresh look at the Epsom Derby to be run over a mile and a half a week this Saturday. There are currently twenty-one still entered with two declaration stages to go plus the possibility of a horse/s being supplemented at a cost of £85,000 Here’s a horse-by-horse analysis with an ante-post horse racing tip at the end.
Adelaide River
Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
One of eight O’Brien horses still left in the race. Was 6 1/2L behind Arrest in Chester Vase on his re-appearance and will need to improve considerably on that to feature.
Current odds: 66/1
Alder
Trainer: Donnacha O’Brien
Runner up to San Antonio in Chester’s Dee Stakes over 10F following a win at Cork in April. Stepping up in trip here may bring about some improvement but will need to.
Current odds: 25/1
Arrest
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Bidding to give Frankie Dettori a winning Derby ride in his last year and has sound claims of doing so. Best run as a two-year-old when finishing a head runner-up in Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud in October on heavy ground to Dubai Mike and sluiced through the mud when a very easy winner of the Chester Vase by 6 1/2L from Adelaide River. Has won on good to firm although his two best runs have come with plenty of ease in the ground so any rain will suit this Juddmonte-owned Frankel colt who has a live chance.
Current odds: 13/2
Artistic Star
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Shown good form in winning a Nottingham maiden last October and a 10F novice stakes contest at Sandown earlier this month from Torito. A promising sort who his trainer stated after his recent victory that the Derby may come too soon and Royal Ascot is a more realistic target.
Current odds: 50/1
Auguste Rodin
Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
Arguably the best two-year-old from last season winning a Naas maiden, Group 2 at Leopardstown and the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster all with give in the ground. Went off 13/8 favourite when a major flop in the 2000 Guineas, getting bumped by his stable mate Little Big Bear and trailing home in 12th (of 14) place beaten 22L. Steps up from a mile to a mile and a half here and his trainer has been talking him up since but looks poor value at his current odds on his 2000 Guineas run.
Current odds: 7/2
Covent Garden
Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
Placed third on re-appearance in 1M 5F listed race at Navan. Yet another Aiden O’Brien runner who looks more of a stayer and hard to fancy.
Current odds: 100/1
Dear My Friend
Trainer: Charlie Johnstone
Won the Burradon Stakes on the all-weather at Newcastle in April but was beaten 6 3/4L into 8th place in the Dante Stakes at 22/1 and looks highly unlikely to give rookie trainer Charlie Johnstone a Derby winner in his first-year training in his own name.
Current odds: 66/1
Dubai Mile
Trainer: Charlie Johnstone
Smart juvenile finishing runner up to The Foxes ( beaten 1/2L) in the Royal Lodge before taking the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud on heavy ground by a head from Arrest over 10F. Made a highly satisfactory re-appearance when fifth in 2000 Guineas at Newmarket races, beaten 5 1/4L by Chaldean and the longer trip of The Derby looks highly likely to suit. Looks overpriced and looks like a very interesting runner for his first season (in his name anyway) trainer.
Current odds: 16/1
Espionage
Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
Not seen since last October when beaten a head by Proud And Regal in Group 1 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud on heavy ground. Longer trip today should suit and can be considered one of the better outsiders if allowed to take his chance for Aiden O’Brien.
Current odds: 40/1
Gooloogong
Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
Naas 10F winner on heavy ground back in March by 2 1/4L from Nation’s Call ( beaten since) with the pair a long way clear of the remainder. Form doesn’t amount to much and would need a giant leap of faith if allowed to take his chance.
Current odds: 40/1
Greenland
Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
Another Aiden O’Brien entry who finished just a length and a quarter behind The Foxes in the Royal Lodge last backend. Winner of a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud over 10 1/2F on very soft ground at the beginning of this month and needs to step his form up further to play a part in the finish if allowed to take his chance.
Current odds: 66/1
King of Steel
Trainer: Roger Varian
Last seen when running down the field in the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster in October beaten some 9 3/4L by winner Auguste Rodin for owners Amo Racing for trainer David Loughnane. Has since joined Roger Varian and was a 28/1 chance when playing up in stalls for the Dante Stakes at York last week when being withdrawn.
Current odds: 100/1
Military Order
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
A full brother to the 2021 Derby winner Adayar and has followed his hoof prints in winning at Newbury impressively on his re-appearance and following up in the Lingfield Derby Trial, run on the all-weather, by 1 1/4L from Waipiro at a track that wouldn’t have shown him at his best. Already done more than his illustrious brother, who got beat in the Lingfield Derby Trial, prior to winning this and looks sure to run a big race.
Current odds: 3/1
Modesty
Trainer: Freddie & Martyn Meade
Ran out a comfortable 3L winner of a 1M York maiden last October from a 74-rated maiden. That form looks average enough and a massive ask to step up from that to be involved here.
Current odds: 100/1
Passenger
Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute
Will need to be supplemented at a cost of £85,000 if his connections wish to run. Was the unlucky horse in the Dante Stakes at York when jockey Richard Kingscote continually failed to get a clear passage flashing home to finish 1 1/2L third to The Foxes and White Birch. That was only his second-ever start having won the Wood Ditton at Newmarket in April on his racecourse bow. Stoute’s last three Derby winners (including last year with Desert Crown) ran in this, with Workforce finishing runner-up on his second career start prior to winning at Epsom. A major chance if supplemented.
Paddington
Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
Has improved this season winning a Naas handicap comfortably when well backed and a listed race at The Curragh earlier this month by a length and a half from Drumroll. Yet to race beyond a mile although his dam won at up to 1M 5F so should stay well enough. Going the right way and if allowed to take his chance there would be worse 40/1 chances than him. Entered into the Irish 2000 Guineas this weekend.
Current odds: 40/1
San Antonio
Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
Followed up a comfortable 3 3/4L Dundalk maiden win in March with victory in the listed Dee Stakes at Chester by 1 /4L from Alder over 1M 2 1/2F. The extra distance here should be fine and progressing the right way.
Current odds: 25/1
Sprewell
Trainer: Jessie Harrington
Followed up his Naas win in March with a comfortable 3L victory in the Leopardstown Derby Trial from a couple of useful sorts in Up And Under and Proud And Regal. Extra 2F here will no doubt suit and looks like a player although has only run on soft ground so possibly wouldn’t want a fast ground (unlikely) Derby.
Current odds: 10/1
Squire Danagher
Trainer: A Oliver
A thrice-raced maiden that looks totally out of his depth here. Likely to finish last if turning up.
Current odds: 200/1
The Foxes
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Has some top-class form in winning Group 1 Royal Lodge as a juvenile and following a credible runner-up in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket took the Dante Stakes at York last week by a neck from White Birch. Extra furlong and a half here should suit and holds genuine each-way claims.
Current odds: 10/1
Waipiro
Trainer: Ed Walker
Stepped up when giving current favourite Military Order a scare at Lingfield in their Derby Trial run on the all-weather earlier this month when going down by a length and a quarter. Lightly raced and no shock were he to hit the frame at nice odds on that run alone.
Current odds: 20/1
White Birch
Trainer: John Joseph Murphy
Stepped up from his Group 3 Leopardstown victory in April when running a stormer in the Dante Stakes in chasing home The Foxes only going down by a neck. Highly rated by his trainer and has solid each-way claims.
Current odds: 14/1
Epsom Derby Ante-Post Betting Tips
Aiden O’Brien has left eight in although he has stated not all will run with his main hope Auguste Rodin still very high in his thoughts. I can’t get over his poor run at Newmarket and for me is opposable at his current odds.
Military Order is going the right way for the boys in blue although he didn’t blow me away last time on the all-weather in winning the Lingfield Derby Trial although to be fair the track wouldn’t have played to his strengths that day.
Arrest had little to beat when winning well at Chester and obviously prefers some cut in the ground likewise Irish challenger Sprewell.
Passenger will no doubt be a springer in the market if he’s supplemented for this as he was the one to take out of the Dante Stakes in finishing an unlucky third. His trainer is never one to rush his horses so until he’s committed to the race has to be watched.
The value in the race may be with Charlie Johnstone’s Dubai Mile who beat Arrest as a two-year-old but can be backed at over double the odds. There was plenty to like about his 5th in the 2000 Guineas over a trip woefully too short for him (he won a Group 1 as a juvenile over 10F on soft ground) and looks each-way value at a top priced 16/1.
DUBAI MILE 1 point each way @ 16/1 with Unibet 1/5th 123
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