ELO Football Match Ratings

Prediction Ratings

Prediction Ratings are what they say they are - ratings that will tell you where the value bet is. They are based on the last 4 home matches and the last 4 away matches.

The ratings are based on attacking play in previous performances, which is the only way you can realistically rate a team properly.

What do the numbers mean?

I like to say that 20pts difference is the same as 1 clear goal superior to the other team.

Ok here is an example of 3 matches and I'll explain how I see what the ratings are telling me:

Example 1

Arsenal 91 v 21 Hull +70 1.22 4.40 15.00

This would suggest Arsenal are no value at all. The ratings have them over 2 goals superior, so an obvious win on the cards.

Example 2

Wigan 45 v Arsenal 23 +22  4.30 3.15 1.60

This would suggest that backing Wigan and the draw is good value,  as Arsenal seem to be average away from home.

Example 3

Leeds 67 v 35 Leicester +32 2.50 3.25 2.50

This would suggest backing Leeds and the draw would be a strong bet, as they are clearly superior and perhaps Leicester were being priced on reputation, rather than actual performances.

You will see that there are 2 numbers in the centre. This denotes each teams average over the last 2 games, which should give the ratings another level of accuracy.


Performance Ratings Explained

Performance Ratings have been specifically created to give you a closer look at a result, rather than just seeing the scoreline which can be misleading.

While we won't reveal how we compile them, they are based on attacking play, which is the logical way to assess how well a team did play and if they were unlucky or if it was a deserved result.