6th July 2012
Williams vs Radwanska Betting: Serena Williams might have more problems than expected
The women's final should be a great prelude to what will follow on Sunday and I actually believe that we are going to see cracking contest. Yes, Serena Williams is a solid favourite and should be able to win the title, but I would not want to underestimate Radwanska after that straightforward victory over Kerber. Our pre-tournament bet means that we are technically backing the Pole @ 2.65 in today's match, but that's how it goes sometimes. Apart from that, however, I would also like to take a closer look at the total games market. Pinnacle are offering a 19 games line and I believe that this is a fairly small line for a match of this magnitude.
Look, I am not as ignorant as it may sometimes look like and I understand that this is a horrible match-up for Radwanska. Her defensive skills are fine, but they are not good enough on this surface, especially against someone this powerful. So why would I want to back the overs here?
Well, Serena has went over the line against Zheng, Kvitova, Shvedova and Azarenka. And I would definitely rate Radwanska above Zheng and Shvedova at least. And it would be far-fetched to say that those ladies are big hitters, which means that you can have reasonable success against Williams even with mid-range playing styles these days.
All in all, Radwanska certainly has a shot at covering this line in this match. I can't really see her winning it, but she is the world's number three for a reason and she has what it takes to win eight games here. Smaller stakes are recommended though, as this is not a clear-cut match by any means.
Update: Apparently, Radwanska is also having some breathing problems - she should be back in shape for the final it seems, but it is absolutely necessary to keep the stakes low for this one due to that issue as well.
Back A.Radwanska/S.Williams - Over 19 games for a 1/10 stake at 1.88 with Pinnacle
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Author: Topspin Tommy