18th June 2012
Warwick Betting: Dragonera has the potential to shock the royal horse Set To Music in feature race
Warwick 7.55pm – Listed Race – 1m2f188yds – Fillies and Mares
2 non-runners (Khawlah and Jiwen)has left us with a field of just 6 for this listed race worth just over £18,000 to the winner and prize money down to 6th, with the horse trailing in last tonight still guaranteed to take home £445.50 for connections. The favourite at the moment is Set To Music at 13-8 with Betfred and most other bookies are going 6-4.
It is trained by Michael Bell and he got off the mark at Doncaster yesterday with Kimberella after suffering a bad run of form that has seen him only have 1 winner from his last 23 runners. Jamie Spencer was on board Kimberella and is also on board Set To Music, as he has been for 3 of its victories. It managed 3 wins in a row at around this time last year and all three were over 10f, one being on good to soft and the other two on good to firm ground.
It was disappointing on its seasonal debut in a Group 2 at York behind Izzi Top over a 10f trip but then improved stepped up to 12f next time out in a Group 3 race when 2nd to Shimmering Surf. Spencer will wear the famous purple silks of the Queen and this exciting middle distance prospect could provide Bell and Spencer with another winner but the drop back to 10f again is a slight concern, as is the soft to heavy ground.
Myplacelater is a best priced 9-4 at the moment but it is not the most consistent of performers but it does like soft ground. It won a listed race on soft by 6 lengths at Newmarket in October 2010 over 12f and had won over 10f the race before that in a class 2 handicap. It is in good heart and was 2nd to Marcret last time out on very soft ground at Chester but that one has flopped since to let that form down but Glen’s Diamond from that race was 2nd to Red Cadeaux in the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup over 14f. It will relish the conditions and could go close tonight under Franny Norton.
Mid Mon Lady ran well last time out when 2nd to Danadana at Redcar just 14 days ago in the Zetland Gold Cup but that was on good to firm ground. The 4th that day was Navajo Chief and that one has just won at York over the weekend to frank that piece of form. That was off a rating of 96 in a handicap but it now races in listed company against better horses. It has a poor return of just 3 wins from 38 races on the flat and 3 wins from 25 races on the all-weather with 0 wins from 20 stakes races, a total of 6 wins from 63 starts and it is now 7 years old.
Rumh is trained by Saeed Bin Suroor and will be ridden by Frankie Dettori tonight. It made its seasonal debut 17 days ago at Epsom and was 12th of 13 to Gatewood in a class 2 handicap. It can be forgiven a bad run at Epsom as many get unbalanced and don’t take to the twists and turns of that course. It ended last season by finishing last in the Group 1 St Leger and was 7th of 8 behind Blue Bunting at York in another Group 1 race, the Yorkshire Oaks. It has a maiden win and a listed win so far and both were by 6 lengths. It made all at Newbury to win a listed race but on good to firm ground. It has raced once on soft and finished 10th of 20 at Newmarket.
Moment Of Time has not raced for 234 days and makes its seasonal return here tonight. It is yet to win a race and was 6 ¼ lengths behind Rumh in the listed race mentioned above, finishing 3rd. It was stepped up to 12f for its final 2 starts last season and ended the campaign with a 7 length 2nd place to Hawaafez in a class 3 handicap, rated 89. That rival is now rated 106 but Moment Of Time is still rated just 89. That run was an improvement on the 12f race at Bath when it was one paced and beaten 15 ½ lengths in a class 5 maiden on good to soft. The surface would be the main concern but it would not shock me if this went close at a huge price.
The last of the 6 is Dragonera, ridden by Paul Mulrennan and trained by Ed Dunlop. It was 2nd just 10 days ago at Doncaster, beaten 3 lengths by Qaraaba. That wasn’t a bad effort as the winner was clearly a decent sort and is now rated 101. It is only 4 years old and looks less exposed than some of these and already has 4 wins and 2 places from just 11 starts. It was hampered at Ascot on soft ground but won on soft at Doncaster over 10f, beating Battery Power by a neck. There is plenty of potential for improvement and odds of 16-1 look quite generous.
Set To Music looks the worthy favourite but doesn’t look much value at the odds and it might be worth taking a slight risk for a smaller stake on Dragonera improving enough to win this race. I think Set To Music should be slightly shorter and is the most likely winner but at the prices I'll take it on.
1pt WIN – Dragonera 16-1 Bet365 (BOG)
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Author: Formbook Frank