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Tipster:
chris34

Sport:
Horse Racing

Event:
Southwell

Match
Southwell 3.00

Selection
Smart Affair (Each Way Bet)

Strength
2/10

Date
04/10/2012

Bookmaker/Price
Bet365 @ 13.00

Reasoning

 

Only the one course winner in this field on a course that course form is very important.

Pugnacious comes from a top yard that usually know the time of day with their runners around here. But wide draw extremely tough to overcome around here and he has only show one piece of form to date and that was on soft ground 3 starts ago so chances are he will handle the surface but probably best watched unless market says otherwise.

Dewala has had just 4 starts to date all on this surface, but off the track for nearly 200 days and didn’t look in need of this sort of trip previously and wide draw not helpful.

Stag Hill has found some form recently, second last time out behind the potentially well treated Norfolk Sky, up 2lb for that effort and still remains a maiden and yet to encounter this surface.

Smart Affair is not straightforward and is a bit of a madam but she does have ability and has shown a real liking for artificial surfaces especially this one.  Having won a seller around here in March and ran well above herself in a claimer in July, often slow starts have cost her races at times so will need to get a better break here but if she does she is clearly handicapped to go close stall 1 not ideal but will have to come from the back anyhow so.

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