9th March 2012
Sandown Betting: Inside Dealer should appreciate better ground for in form Tizzard duo
Sandown 5.00pm – Class 3 Chase – 2m 4f 110yds
At the moment there are 8 runners and we are getting each way terms of 3 places and that looks to provide the opportunity to take a horse each way at a bigger price and oppose the current favourite, Aldertune at odds of 5-2 with SkyBet.
Aldertune has shown a great level of consistency with 5 second places from 9 chase starts but also seems to regularly find one too good. Another possible negative is the trip of 2m 4f 110yds as a lot of its racing has been around 3m or further but it does have form on good ground, a definite plus today. It was 2nd here last time out over 25f, only just getting beaten and races off the same mark of 126. It is likely to get backed on the day when the weekend punters see that it is a Ruby Walsh/Paul Nicholls horse and punters will be hoping to claw back some of their losses in this last race of the day at Sandown.
Cool Friend is the current 2nd favourite, not far behind in the betting at 3-1. It is another consistent sort with a number of 2nds in the formline but going back to its last win in October 2010 we see losing distances of 10 lengths, 19 lengths, 10 lengths, 14 ½ lengths, 13 lengths, 28 lengths, 26 lengths, 38 lengths and 12 lengths, these losses over both hurdles and fences. It only has the one chase victory but that was in novice company. Richard Johnson was on board last time out and keeps the ride today off the same mark of 119 and it bumped into a decent looking Hunt Ball last time out.
Panjo Bere is the current outsider in the field and wears a first time visor. It races off 117 today and also has a 5lb claimer on board and previously won off a lofty rating of 145 back in February 2010 over 17f in a class 2 chase at Ascot. It has been poor ever since and has now dropped through the ratings to a very winnable mark but recent form is dreadful. It was beaten 45 lengths last time out by Hunt Ball when Cool Friend was 2nd and in front of it by 35 lengths. Panjo Bere has dropped another 3lb since that race but looks to have lost its love for racing and they will have to hope the visor works wonders to get involved here.
Sound Stage is a 12-1 chance but now races over a trip that looks more suitable to the 3m+ staying trips it has been contesting. It has wins and places over this kind of trip and has placed on good ground but winning form is with some cut on good to soft and soft. It races off 119 today and won off this mark in March 2010 before placing 2nd behind Midnight Chase. It was 2nd off 128 in November 2010 and now drops to 119 and also has a 7lb claimer on board but the trainer is 0 from 11 over the last 2 weeks. Trip, ground and handicap mark look ok and 12-1 looks a fair price.
Cois Farraig has been dreadfully out of form and is now tried with a tongue tie and cheekpieces but has been off 113 days and might need the run. Trainer is 0 from 7 over the last fortnight and the horse’s only win was in novice company.
You Know Yourself has been running on softer surfaces than this and over further but its last win was over 20f in November 2011. It has gone up 5lb since that victory and shown nothing off that mark so far over further. Sue Smith is 0 from 30 and the stables runners can’t be backed with any confidence at the moment and she uses the same 3lb claimer that was on board last time out. The drop back in trip might be a plus today but it might need dropping a few more pounds by the handicapper.
Calusa Caldera has been off course for 297 days but did win in March 2011 when running out a 13 length winner of a class 3 handicap chase off a rating of 119. It then ran off 129 and 128 and unseated rider and was 8th of 10. It drops to a mark of 125 today and going on that 13 length win it may have a chance off this mark. It loves good ground and these conditions will be ideal and it has winning form over 20f, 21f and 23f. It has won fresh in 2008 and 2009 and ran once in 2010 when 2nd on its seasonal debut to Shakalakaboomboom. Interesting to see Tom O’Brien ride this for Philip Hobbs with Richard Johnson on a rival horse for Jeremy Scott.
Inside Dealer was 3rd in this race last year but the winner, Holmwood Legend went on to festival success and is now rated 140. Its last win was off a rating of 113 but it has placed 4 times off marks of 125 and 123 (twice each rating). It was pulled up last time out and beaten 15 lengths by Hunt Ball before that, both races over 21f. It should appreciate this better ground and the stable are in excellent form lately. Recent form is a concern but it would probably be good enough on its day and is another tried with cheekpieces today.
1pt EW – Inside Dealer 7-1 Skybet
0.5pt EW – Sound Stage 12-1 Bet365
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Author: Formbook Frank