18th June 2012
Royal Ascot Betting: Frankel impossible to oppose for win number 11
Ascot 2.30pm – Queen Anne Stakes – Group 1 – 1m
If you don’t mind backing very short priced favourites then I’d suggest you rob your granny, empty the kid’s piggy banks and sell a kidney on Ebay and then put it all on Frankel as it looks unbeatable over a mile and is a very special one of a kind superstar horse. At odds of 1-6 with BetVictor and almost every other bookmaker you are not going to make much but it looks as close to a risk free bet as you can get. For those of you that try to find an alternative bet and a value angle on the race read on.
Both Henry Cecil and Aidan O’Brien are likely to use a pacemaker in this race with Bullet Train taking a lead for Frankel and Windsor Palace making the running for Excelebration. Both pacemakers are likely to go off like scalded cats and then fade away to the back of the field during the last furlong or two and neither have a realistic chance of winning, they are there to assist their stables other runners. There should be a true gallop over the mile and that will call into question any stamina doubts.
Strong Suit is one with those stamina doubts. If they couldn’t beat Frankel with Canford Cliffs are they really likely to beat it with Strong Suit? It looks a very good horse over 7f but there are slight doubts over it getting a mile and it has never won over this trip. It ran a disappointing 6th of 6 to Frankel but then they found it had a breathing problem and had it operated on.
It has recorded 3 wins since, all over 7f and two of them at Group 2 level. It has a turn of foot and will want to come off a decent pace but it will need to be able to travel for a mile, not just 7f. I can forgive it the run at the Breeders Cup as it didn’t take the bend well and is better than that effort. The ground is another slight concern and they will surely be hoping it has dried out by race time.
Excelebration would probably be a multiple Group 1 winner that we would be drooling over if it wasn’t for the presence of Frankel. It has seen the back end of that horse 4 times now and they do not seem to have any tactics that can beat Frankel. If they try dictate the pace and slow it down there is Bullet Train to kick on or Frankel can take up the running with its long stride and powerful galloping style and go from the front.
It is the 2nd highest rated in the race and is still 13lb behind Frankel on official figures. Surely the best they can hope for is 2nd place and there will be many punters looking to back this one in the without favourite market. Being 2nd to Frankel is no disgrace and 2nd place takes home £75,000. It is unfortunate that it is running at the same time as a superstar and is likely to be seeing the rear end of that horse for a 5th time.
Indomito should like the ground but looks completely outclassed and is a 100-1 chance.
Red Jazz was poor in a Group 3 recently and is a 66-1 chance that looks unlikely to be involved in the first 3.
Side Glance is in fine form and won last time out but looks like a Group 3 type horse and was outclassed when facing Frankel previously.
Worthadd will appreciate any cut in the ground but was beaten by Side Glance last time out at Epsom over 9f. It has finished 2nd to Canford Cliffs over a mile and had Premio Loco and Red Jazz in behind that day.
Helmet wears a tongue tie and cheek pieces and has won a Group 1 in Australia over a mile and on good to soft ground. It was a poor 12th of 16 in the Australian Guineas and was just 12th of 14 to Daddy Long Legs in Dubai but over 10f.Barzalona rides for the out of form Godolphin and it is 50-1 for success.
One that I feel could run a huge race at a huge price is Premio Loco. It is currently 66-1 and has won its last two races on the all weather but they were over 9f and 10f at Group 3 level. It was a course and distance winner in July 2010 when it won a Group 2 here on good to firm ground. It has disappointed twice on good to soft and the ground would be the main concern for this horse, along with obvious doubts over if it is good enough at Group 1 level.
If you are looking at alternative markets for this race there is the without favourite market, place market, a Strong Suit V Excelebration market and a Frankel winning distances market. Frankel has won 5 of its last 6 races by at least 4 lengths and looked most likely to lose its unbeaten tag here last year when Zoffany was just ¾ of a length behind it. Frankel looks bigger and stronger this year and that should strike fear into the opposition.
I feel Strong Suit could get the mile and has an excellent turn of foot and could get in front of Excelebration given the right ride by Hughes. Queally has got Frankel to settle now and he probably went too early last year, if he holds on until around 2f out and sets sail for home it could be another 4 lengths or more win.
3pts WIN – Frankel to win by 3.5 – 5.5 lengths inclusive 7-4 Bet365
1pt WIN – Strong Suit 3-1 Ladbrokes (w/o favourite)
0.5 pt EW – Premio Loco 25-1 Betfred (w/o favourite) ¼ odds 3 places
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Author: Formbook Frank