5th February 2012

Punchestown Betting: Sizing Europe to reverse form with Big Zeb if racing from the front

Punchestown 2.55pm – Grade 2 Chase – 2m - Heavy

Just the 3 runners for this Grade 2 contest but only two with any realistic chance of winning and at this moment in time the bookies favour Big Zeb and install it as a 4-5 favourite with Ladbrokes. It has rivalry and history with Sizing Europe and only 1lb now separates them on official ratings but let’s start by looking at the impossible task the 100-1 outsider faces.

Imperial Shabra is just 8 years old and has raced 16 times over fences with 0 wins, 1 second and 4 third places. It only has 2 career wins from 51 races under rules and both were as a hurdler and both wins were back in August 2010. It now has an official rating as a chaser of 113. That puts it exactly 60lb inferior to Sizing Europe and because this race isn’t a handicap it only gets 8lb at the weights and carries 11-4 compared to the 11-12 that both Big Zeb and Sizing Europe carry. It was recently 4^th to Bog Warrior in a Grade 1 Novice Chase but it was beaten 87 lengths and is likely to be tailed off today, unable to go the pace of two genuine top class chasers.

Big Zeb is classed as having run 3 times this season as the win at Punchestown back in May is classed as into the new season yet it has also raced twice recently in November and December. At the Punchestown festival it managed to get in front of Sizing Europe to win by ¾ of a length and in this race last year it finished 7 lengths in front of it when finishing 2^nd to Golden Silver. Sizing Europe reversed form at Cheltenham and beat Big Zeb by 5 lengths quite comfortably.

Big Zeb has been kept to 2m and the most recent races were over 16f and 17f, beating Noble Prince on both occasions. The disappointing Forpadydeplasterer was back in 3^rd at Navan and Leopardstown and the overall form of the races looks short of Grade 1 class but they have been small field races and it can only beat what it faces. Noble Prince has also let the form down when getting turned over at odds on in a Grade 2 chase.

It looks to be a case of horses for courses as Big Zeb goes well at this track and has recorded 3 wins and 3 second places from 7 attempts. The jumping errors that saw it fall twice in succession in 2009 have been ironed out and in terms of today’s heavy ground we saw Big Zeb win this race in 2010 on heavy ground, beating Golden Silver by 7 lengths. It is possible that we will see Big Zeb beat Sizing Europe here today only for that form to be reversed at Cheltenham that seems to suit Sizing Europe so much better.

Sizing Europe is also top class at 2m but looks to have better stamina too and finishes its races well at Cheltenham, which has seen it take up other staying engagements. It looked on course for a tilt at the Gold Cup last year but seemed to just fail to see out the 3m well and the 3m2f of the Gold Cup would have been a real stamina test. It dropped back to 2m and won the Queen Mother Champion Chase convincingly by 5 lengths to Big Zeb and is now a dual festival winner, having already won the Arkle in 2010.

It started the season with a 20f win in a 4 runner race at Gowran Park and then went back over 3m at Down Royal when beaten by Quito De La Roque. That form has taken a knock when Quito De La Roque could only finish 3d in what looked to be a poor Lexus Chase. Sizing Europe then dropped back to 2m and was sent over to Sandown to race in the Tingle Creek. The drop back in trip worked wonders and the horse looked electric over its fences, finishing an 8 length winner to the improving Kauto Stone. The race wasn’t the best though and the main disappointment was Wishfull Thinking, only 5^th that day but well beaten. It was rated 15lb superior to the horse in 2^nd and raced off level weights so was always expected to win and did so in emphatic style.

It has now had a 64 day break and will take in this race before going back to Cheltenham to defend its crown in the Queen Mother Champion Chase again. The overall statistics for Punchestown do not read badly despite being turned over by Big Zeb here. It has 4 wins, 3 seconds and 2 thirds from 11 races at the track. That form includes a 2^nd here over hurdles to Hardy Eustace in a Grade 1 race on heavy ground.

With only 3 runners today it is unlikely for one of the front two to get a lead off the 100-1 rag as I don’t think that will be able to go the pace and we wouldn’t want to see a crawl for a mile or more followed by a sprint for home. If Sizing Europe goes from the front and gets into a rhythm I feel it could be hard to peg back but the same can be said for Big Zeb. The key to the race is the tactics today and while Big Zeb looks more of a 2m speedster it could find its stamina tested if Sizing Europe could go off at a good pace in front, knowing it stays further. 2m on heavy ground at a genuine pace will stretch the stamina of most horses and we recently saw very tired horses at Haydock on heavy ground.

At the current prices we have Big Zeb at 4/5 now and Sizing Europe at 6/5 and I’m not sure there should be that much difference. I wouldn’t have either as an odds on chance over the other and feel the 6/5 on Sizing Europe represents very slight value despite the course possibly favouring Big Zeb. If we do see Sizing Europe go off in front today instead of sitting in behind Big Zeb we could see a reversal of last year’s form and I just hope the 100-1 outsider doesn’t get in the way as we see 2 genuine great horses battle out a finish.

Selections:

1pt WIN – Sizing Europe 6-5 Paddypower

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