10th August 2012
Newmarket Betting: Godolphin attempt to continue their dominance of the Sweet Solera Stakes
Newmarket 3.35pm – Sweet Solera Stakes – Group 3 (Fillies) – 7f
An interesting 2 year old race where we can expect 3 or 4 to improve from their debuts and often good races to oppose short priced favourites that are given odds based on one run. This could be the case here with Certify the current 6-4 favourite with PaddyPower despite having only won a 6f maiden race here and on very different ground.
It did win a 17 runner race well and was staying on well to suggest a step up to 7f won’t be a problem but today’s rival Reyaadah also won a maiden race here in a 15 runner race on good ground. That rival also beat a 15-8 favourite that day that was trained by Godolphin and they have today’s short priced favourite. Both these rivals are entered in the Group 1 Shadwell Mile at Newmarket in September.
Reyaadah raced prominently last time out and I like to see horses race this way at this track. It was niggled for a while but then the penny dropped and it picked up well to win. These two horses seem to have achieved similar things yet one is 6-4 and the other is 13-2 and I’d prefer the Hills/Hanagan mount at the prices. Hanagan showed some class last weekend at Newmarket firing in a few winners here.
Hughes and Hannon always have to be respected in 2 year old races and they usually have their horses spot on for when they reach the track. Sky Lantern has raced twice and won twice and has already scored at listed level. Both wins were over 6f and it is entered in the Lowther Stakes at York in a fortnight, also over 6f.
Dream Maker is a 33-1 chance and took 5 attempts to finally win a race which was a maiden auction. It then won a class 4 handicap by 3 ¼ lengths but that form looks ordinary. Tom Dascombe stated that 6f is her trip yet now races her over 7f. It is only rated 72 and most of these will prove much better than that.
Fantacise is rated 92 but also looks up against it now in this class. It won a maiden on its 4th attempt at Pontefract over 6f but on soft ground. It then ran in a Group 2 at Newmarket and was 5th of 10 but was beaten 5 lengths and found nothing in the last furlong against better horses. It could be the same outcome here and it is 20-1 for victory.
Savanna La Mar raced twice in maiden races, winning the 2nd one over 7f at Chester when sent off an 8-13 favourite. It stepped up to listed class last time out over 7f on good to firm ground and was beaten 1 ¾ lengths into 2nd place. The winner was a 28-1 shot and has been given a rating of 96. It is entitled to improve and Sir Mark Prescott has his horses running well lately. It is 10-1 here and is not without a chance.
Redressthebalance is also 10-1 and is rated 84. It has raced twice and won both races, winning a maiden and a class 4 handicap. The handicap win was last time out over 7f but it won easily by 2 ¼ lengths and drew clear. Ralph Beckett has had 6 winners in the last fortnight and Jim Crowley has 9 winners in the same period.
Momalorka is a 20-1 chance and won a maiden at the 3rd time of asking over 6f at Goodwood. It dropped back to 5f on heavy ground and was 3rd of 22 in a 2 year old sprint and then ran here over 6f when beaten 4 lengths by The Gold Cheongsam. That was only 7 days ago and it is turned out quickly again but looks up against it in this race.
Godolphin have taken this race for the last 3 years so Certify has to be respected. They won this race with Discourse, White Moonstone and Long Lashes. Barry Hills used to also target this race for his 2 year olds and he won the race in 2006, 2004 and 2003 so it’s interesting to see Charlie Hills running one here today.
1pt WIN – Reyaadah 13-2 Betfred (BOG)
1pt WIN – Redressthebalance 10-1 Bet365 (BOG)
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Author: Formbook Frank