20th September 2012
Newbury Betting: Edinburgh Knight looks the value bet in Newbury feature race
4.50 Newbury: Dubai Duty Free Cup (Listed) (7f)
With all the weather problems up north it may pay to concentrate on Newbury for some decent action on Friday and we have a very nice Listed contest over 7f. All the top stables are represented and there’s not much between the majority of runners on BHA ratings so we should be in for tight race. The favourite at the moment is Zumbi trained by Sir Michael Stoute and he’s a 3/1 shot with BetVictor at present.
The 3yo is rated 104 and has yet to win this season although his third at Goodwood in the Group 3 Supreme Stakes reads well in the context of this heat, he suffered traffic problems that day and could be considered a little unlucky and James Doyle has taken over from Pat Dobbs in the saddle. Van Ellis from the Mark Johnston yard is next in the betting, another 3yo who has been on the go since April and this is his twelfth race of the season, he’s been switching between 6f and a mile all season but has won twice at this trip. He was well beaten in Italy last time when out of his depth and this grade will suit him much better.
The Godolphin team have been doing well just lately and they run Scarf, the grey has taken time to find his feet since coming over from Australia but did manage to win over course and distance in July, this is a stronger race though and also he may be better with some cut in the ground so wouldn’t be on my shortlist today. Skilful trained by John Gosden has also run his best races with a bit of give and the 4yo colt has a solid second to Tullius last time out in the book, that was over a mile and he just got collared so maybe this drop back to 7f will suit him better. Richard Hannon’s Producer won last time at Goodwood from The Cheka and Zumbi and finished with a right rattle that day. My problem with him is he has won at Epsom and Goodwood which are similar tracks and the three times he has visited Newbury he has been beaten so maybe needs the quirky undulating courses to bring out the best in him?
The top one is Edinburgh Knight and Paul Hanagan gets on him for the first time, he’s been out of his depth the last twice but still ran respectably and these conditions look ideal for him here. Some of his form stands up well in this company and is a lively outsider at around 10/1. Saigon and Right To Dream need to bounce back after disappointing efforts last time while I’m So Glad and Silverheels look outclassed here.
Tricky race to weigh up with slight niggles about all of those at the head of the market with either the trip or the ground. Stoute’s Zumbi is respected as he looked a touch unlucky last time and is less exposed than most and looks sure to run well. I do like Edinburgh Knight at the prices and everything seems to be ideal for him now he has dropped in grade and expect a much better showing this time while Skilful would be a tentative selection for a saver as he hasn’t had a busy season and could be still improving.
2pts EW Edinburgh Knight 10/1 William Hill
1pt Skilful 6/1 Paddy Power
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Author: Ray Singpost