New Manager Betting

One of the great debates in betting and non betting circles, but are we any closer to knowing for sure or at least an indication? Well after this, I would like to think so.

Back in 2002 a Punters Lounge member created this article and some great research went into it.

Online Betting punters put a hefty weight of confidence in that a new manager has an effect on the team, and they will improve very quickly on recent performances. However, until now, there has been no real evidence to support this.

So, is a team with a brand new manager, anymore likely to win their next few matches than the previous manager?

A test of 11 european leagues put this theory to the test, including all the English lower leagues, as well as the top flight leagues such as La Liga and Seria A etc...

The test was take was done taking data from September 2002 to October 2002, covering 82 newly appointed managers. First test was to check the first 4 home and away matches of a new incoming manager against what was the industry standard for all the leagues as a whole.

The results were as follows.

	Perf % after new manager starts	% Ind Standard	diff to Ind Standard
% WINS in 1st four homes	48.17%	46.92%	1.25%
% DRAWS in 1st four homes	24.39%	26.23%	-1.84%
% LOSSES in 1st four homes	26.52%	26.85%	-0.33%
% WINS IN 1st four aways	25.83%	26.85%	-1.02%
% DRAWS in 1st four aways	25.00%	26.23%	-1.23%
% LOSSES in 1st four homes	46.64%	46.92%	-0.28%

Nothing much in the above data to suggest that a new manager has any substantial effect at all, so are we completely back to the drawing board or is there another angle we can look at?

There could be some hope in the 48.17% compared to the 46.92 standard, if we can obtain high enough prices on those teams. However, that angle was also smashed to pieces with a significant yield deficit.

So, that's it then. New managers been nothing and it's all just a big fairlytale...........or is it?

Another test was undertaken to test just the initial first game in charge, both home and away.

If you backed the first away game of all the matches analysed when they had a new manager, it was a massive turnaround. It was also a significant turnaround by backing the first home game of the new manager in charge.

Here are the results:

First home game of the new manager in charge: +8.89% Yield.

First away game of the new manager in charge: +16.36% Yield.

Summary

Nothing is ever certain to be repeated, but this shows at the very least an indication that backing a team with a new manager can be profitable.

It is at its best by just sticking to the first home and first away match, as the above figures show.