9th June 2012
Nadal vs Djokovic Betting: Rafael Nadal is not going to lose at the end of his clay swing journey
Grand Slam finals are always very special, but I wonder whether this one will be as exciting as some of the ones we saw in 2011 - or the one we saw in Australia at the beginning of this year. Yes, the odds may seem ridiculous at first glance. After all, why should the world's number one be rated at 3.88 (that is the odds you can currently get with Pinnacle) against anyone? Well, to be honest, I think that the odds are just about right here.
Many punters might feel that Djokovic has raised his game against Federer and that is obviously true, but it also needs to be said that Nadal also raised his game and completely demolished his compatriot. His baseline game is indeed something spectacular these days and I am not really sure that the Serb can outplay him in longer exchanges at the moment. And, most importantly, the Serb can't rely on his serve.
Another factor that should speak in Nadal's favour in this match is the flexibility of his play. He is not just standing behind the baseline and defending all the time. Even in the very short match against Ferrer, he managed to make thirteen net approaches (and converted all of them). With aggressive play, he should be able to put the Serb under a lot of pressure today and he is simply going to crack sooner or later.
Matches between Djokovic and Nadal are usually decided by form and it is clear who is the in-form player at the moment. The clay swing might have been tough at times, but the Spaniard has managed to get through the obstacles and he is simply not going to lose at the end of the journey. It is not easy to decide between the various possibilities, but I have decided to go for the most ambitious bet in the end. Smaller stakes though.
Back Rafael Nadal (-2.5 sets) to beat Novak Djokovic for a 2/10 stake at 2.76 with Pinnacle
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Author: Topspin Tommy