20th July 2012
Market Rasen Betting: That'll Do for Nicholls in Summer Plate at Market Rasen
3.25 Market Rasen: Betfred Summer Plate Handicap Chase (Listed) (2m6f110y)
The feature Chase on the excellent Market Rasen card this Saturday is the Summer Plate and 16 runners have been declared including last year’s winner Qulinton from the David Pipe yard. He’s an 8/1 chance to double up with bookmakers Paddy Power.
Its fair to say that the 8yo has struggled since that victory twelve months ago and has now gone ten races without success. He has showed a little more over hurdles recently but it’s asking a lot for him to return to fences and beat some in form rivals. The favourite in the early markets is Spock from the Paul Nicholls yard. It looks like the ground has come in his favour has he needs good ground at least to show his best and is 9lbs higher than when winning at Worcester last time out. He’s been well placed thus far by his trainer but this is a different ball game. The stable also has That’ll Do in the line up and he’s interesting with Harry Derham taking 7lbs off. His mark of 132 is fair enough and will enjoy this ground and I expect him to thereabouts.
Jonjo O’Neill, AP McCoy and JP McManus team up with Eastlake at the bottom of the handicap and he’s only had three starts over fences including two victories in novice events. He was beaten last time in a 3 runner affair and could be on a decent mark as he’s unexposed having only had three handicap runs over hurdles and in one of those races he was very well backed at Ascot suggesting that the connections think there is a bit more to come.
Peter Bowen runs Al Co and is the second favourite after his wins at Fakenham and Ffos Las over three miles, he may find this a bit sharp but is obviously going the right way over the bigger obstacles and is not over burdened with weight on his handicap debut over fences. Another Welsh trainer Tim Vaughan runs Stonethrower who has won twice this season already. He was put in his place by Red Not Blue last time but it wasn’t a bad effort but this looks a lot tougher and looks to have plenty of weight. Evan Williams is the third trainer to make the journey from Wales looks to have a fair chance with Tiger O’Toole, he had a confidence booster last time out in a weak race over a much shorter trip and is right in the picture with his third to Chance Du Roy in a competitive race at Haydock last March. He can get behind in his races and these wont hang around so that is the negative for him. Top weight Auroras Encore and Lawney Hill’s I have Dreamed both have a squeak on some bits of form and if Benbane Head is fit after his summer break he could be a danger to all.
Hard race to call and its difficult to ignore the Paul Nicholl’s pair, of the two I prefer That’ll Do who has looked pretty useful and the 7lbs that Harry Derham takes off gives him a real chance at the weights. As an alternative I like Eastlake, he’s unexposed and looks dangerous off bottom weight and connections haven’t seen the best of him as yet.
Selections:
2pts Eastlake 8/1 BetVictor
2pts That’ll Do 9/1 Bet365
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Author: Ray Singpost
