12th May 2012
Lingfield Betting: Gosden and Buick should go close in Derby Trial at Lingfield
Lingfield 3.10pm – Derby Trial – Group 3 – 1m4f – Standard
Another classic trial and another race that is more or less priced up on potential with so many of the field lightly raced and likely to prove better at 3 than they did at 2. Just the 8 runners go to post and the current favourite is Shantaram at 2-1 with BetVictor.
Shantaram has raced twice, once this season and once last season and was 2nd on both occasions. The form of its last time out 2nd to Model Pupil got a timely boost when that rival ran well at Chester during the week and was just touched off, picking up like a decent sort from a hold up ride. Sired by Galileo and likely to improve now stepped up to a mile and a half this looks a worthy favourite. 33-1 for the Derby.
The main danger looks to be Main Sequence and this is just behind in the betting at around 5-2. This horse is unbeaten in 3 starts and has won recently over 10f at Newmarket. One slightly off putting remark in the RP analysis is that the horse flashed its tail late on under pressure, often a bad sign and a negative quirk. Durcan takes the ride again and has won on the horse the last twice and it is a 50-1 chance for the Derby.
Rougemont was another recent Newmarket winner, also over 10f. It was 1st of 14 and beat Mickdaam and that horse franked form at Chester this week when just holding out to beat Model Pupil so there is some relative form here with Shantaram. It ran in a Group 3 last time out on heavy ground and was well beaten by the impressive Imperial Monarch. It has been rather hit and miss with 3 rather flat performances and can’t be fully trusted. Not entered for the Derby.
Ed De Gas is a course winner and distance winner and has 3 wins from 3 starts, 2 of them on all-weather surfaces and one of them here over 10f. It was an impressive winner last time out at Catterick, winning that race by 12 lengths on soft ground and that race was over this trip. Has reportedly been going well with a few at home so they thought they would try their chance. Shouldn’t really be good enough but is improving and not to be taken lightly. No Derby entry.
Cavaleiro is the only horse in the field that has not had a recent outing and returns to the track after a 239 day break. It has 2 wins and 3 places from 5 starts and is yet to race over further than a mile. The sire’s side of the pedigree looks to be about speed and it is 50-1 for the Derby and 20-1 for this race. Plenty of stamina on the dam side but will need it too to stay.
Goldoni is a 10-1 chance and a recent winner, staying on well over 10f in heavy ground at Epsom. Held in some regard by its trainer and no doubt on a fact finding mission today to see how it copes in a better grade. The 2nd to Kingsdesire at Doncaster took a knock at Chester when well beaten by Astrology. Doesn’t currently have a Derby entry.
Halling’s Quest is a 25-1 chance here under Kieren Fallon and was 3rd just 22 days ago, beaten 13 lengths by Ektihaam in a class 3 race. It was well beaten by Bonfire on debut and then won a lowly class 6 maiden at Southwell. Sired by Halling with plenty of stamina on the dam side of the pedigree the horse should stay but is only rated 88 and has plenty to find.
Hazaz is a 33-1 chance, is rated 96 and is still a maiden after 8 starts. It has raced mainly over 7f and on the one start over 10f it was beaten 7 ¾ lengths. Not entered in the Derby but does have other group race entries. Sired by Dubawi with a lack of stamina on the other side of the pedigree I can’t see this staying a mile and a half.
Shantaram looks like it could be a really decent type but has already been beaten twice and it was outbattled by Model Pupil. I feel that could be decent form and that race has worked out well since. The value has to be with Goldoni, now a 12-1 chance with Bodog but it has to improve plenty.
2pts WIN – Shantaram 2-1 BetVictor
1pt WIN – Goldoni 12-1 Bodog
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Author: Formbook Frank