2nd August 2012
Goodwood Betting: Stipulate can continue fine form for Queally and Cecil
Goodwood 2.35pm – RSA Thoroughbred Stakes – Group 3 – 1m
A field of 15 are set to race over a mile in a race for 3 year olds only and Trumpet Major has to give 4lb to the field for a Group 3 win back in April. It won the Craven that day and conceded 3lb to the field then. It was 4th in the Guineas and then finished last in the Irish equivalent but was reportedly coughing after the race. It has been off since that run in May and if returning in the sort of form that won the Craven it would go close, even under the penalty. It is 13-2 with Bluesquare to win this race.
Gregorian is the current 10-3 favourite and drops down in class now after twice placing in Group 1 races this season. It was 3rd at Ascot to Most Improved and then went to France where it was 2nd to Aesops Fables, finishing in front of horses like Caspar Netscher and French Fifteen. The 3rd at Ascot looks strong form with a number of highly rated runners behind that day, many of those having contested the Irish 2000 Guineas. It is joint top rated on 114 with Trumpet Major.
Aljamaaheer is rated 107 and has been beaten by Gregorian at Newbury on soft ground. It won a listed race over 7f on good to firm ground at Newmarket and then ran 3rd to Ishvana at Ascot in a Group 3 and was only beaten a length. A few of these finished way behind that day and this one looks progressive enough to go well. It only had one start as a 2 year old and won its debut race and has only had 3 starts this season. This better ground should see it get closer to Gregorian this time around.
Stipulate has 2 wins and 3 places from 7 starts and was 2nd last time out at Ascot but was running over 10f. It was also 2nd over a mile to Cogito when it was a place ahead of Tales Of Grimm. It was disappointing on heavy ground but will definitely go better on this ground and will improve again for Tom Queally. Henry Cecil has his horses in form this week with Queally the current leading jockey after 3 days of racing and it would be no shock to see this win here today.
Tales Of Grimm will be trying to reverse form with Stipulate here and the stable are in better form now with 8 winners in the last fortnight. It has only had 3 starts and is very unexposed and could really be anything. It has been held up on its last 2 starts but won its maiden when tracking the leaders and may opt for those tactics here.
Red Duke won a maiden and a Group 2 race last season over 7f and also finished 2nd to Trumpet Major at Doncaster in another Group 2 race. It was 11th in the 2000 Guineas this season and then finished 3rd to Caspar Netscher in Germany. It didn’t get the clearest of runs last time out at Ascot but was still only beaten by 3 lengths. The booking of Johnny Murtagh would have to be seen as a positive.
Other horses of note are Archbishop under Dettori and Coupe De Ville under Dane O’Neill, priced at around 10-1 and 11-1. Saigon tries blinkers for the first time while Silverheels wears cheekpieces and Ptolemaic wears a visor so these will be easy to spot during the race. Ewell Place won last time out and might be able to outrun its price of 40-1. The race has plenty of outsiders that seem unfancied and are priced between 25-1 and 66-1. Gregorian has the form in the book but I expect Stipulate to come on again here.
2pts EW – Stipulate 8-1 William Hill (BOG)
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Author: Formbook Frank